Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satell...Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.展开更多
More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is...More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is accumulated and released cyclically in squeezed zones. Several methods were developed to analyze the medium-and short-term potential of main shocks. These methods can be classified into (1) less data systems using the theory of grey model for earthquake prediction, (2) quasi-periodic systems using earthquake activity analysis, (3) systems of grouped activity using order analysis, and (4) nonlinear systems using back propagation (BP) of neural network for prediction analysis. Based upon these analytic methods, risk maps for the prediction of strong earthquakes can be drawn using the records of strong earthquakes in Taiwan for the past 100 years. These risk maps include (1) a seismic risk map, (2) a loss risk map, (3) a hazard degree map, and (4) a loss degree map. These risk maps make it possible to do a medium-term prediction of main shocks on the 10-year scale.展开更多
基金support from the Key Project of Hainan Province Scientific and Technical Plan(grant No.06701)
文摘Based on an interpretation and study of the satellite remote-sensing images of FY-2C thermal infrared 1st wave band （10.3-11.3 μm） designed in China, the authors found that there existed obvious and isolated satellite thermal infrared anomalies before the 5.12 Wenchuan Ms 8.0 Earthquake. These anomalies had the following characteristics： （1） The precursor appeared rather early： on March 18, 2008, i.e., 55 days before the earthquake, thermal infrared anomalies began to occur; （2） The anomalies experienced quite many and complex evolutionary stages： the satellite thermal infrared anomalies might be divided into five stages, whose manifestations were somewhat different from each other. The existence of so many anomaly stages was probably observed for the first time in numerous cases of satellite thermal infrared research on earthquakes; （3） Each stage lasted quite a long time, with the longest one spanning 13 days; （4） An evident geothermal anomaly gradient was distributed along the Longmen seismic fracture zone, and such a phenomenon might also be discovered for the first time in satellite thermal infrared earthquake research. This discovery is therefore of great guiding and instructive significance in the study of the earthquake occurrence itself and the trend of the postearthquake phenomena.
文摘More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is accumulated and released cyclically in squeezed zones. Several methods were developed to analyze the medium-and short-term potential of main shocks. These methods can be classified into (1) less data systems using the theory of grey model for earthquake prediction, (2) quasi-periodic systems using earthquake activity analysis, (3) systems of grouped activity using order analysis, and (4) nonlinear systems using back propagation (BP) of neural network for prediction analysis. Based upon these analytic methods, risk maps for the prediction of strong earthquakes can be drawn using the records of strong earthquakes in Taiwan for the past 100 years. These risk maps include (1) a seismic risk map, (2) a loss risk map, (3) a hazard degree map, and (4) a loss degree map. These risk maps make it possible to do a medium-term prediction of main shocks on the 10-year scale.
