China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and ...China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the "triple high" phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic-world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon.Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011-2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self-sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self-sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.展开更多
Most Japanese are enjoying rich and convenient dietary habits nowadays. However, majorities of Japanese are feeling anxiety about the future food supply because Japan＇s food self-sufficiency ratio has fallen most rap...Most Japanese are enjoying rich and convenient dietary habits nowadays. However, majorities of Japanese are feeling anxiety about the future food supply because Japan＇s food self-sufficiency ratio has fallen most rapidly in the last 45 years, and is lowest amongst countries with a population of more than 100 million. Major causes and mechanisms of the decline in the food self-sufficiency ratio over the last 45 years were analyzed. Drastic changes of dietary habits under rapid economic growth and sharp appreciation of the yen against the US dollar were found to be the major causes of the sharp decline of the food self-sufficiency ratio. Preliminary projections about the food self-sufficiency ratio in 2015 were carried out, and it was found that it will not be easy to achieve the policy goal of raising the food self-sufficiency ratio to 45% by 2015.展开更多
Based on an internationally recognized concept of food security, this paper has created a system of eight indicators to analyze China＇s food security. For the proper control and analysis of this study, the authors of...Based on an internationally recognized concept of food security, this paper has created a system of eight indicators to analyze China＇s food security. For the proper control and analysis of this study, the authors of this paper have chosen these indicators： supply, distribution, consumption, utilization efficiency, food security results, stability, sustainability and controllability. Results indicate that China＇s food security is currently at a high level and has been increasing in recent years. China＇s food security has multiple advantages with various indicators that include a self-sufficiency ratio, per capita calorie intake and protein supply that are above world average levels, even exceeding the average level of some developed countries. Major challenges facing China＇s food security include an unreasonable nutrition structure and poor environmental sustainability. In order to increase China＇s food security level, efforts must be made to adjust output structure, adopt an environmentally friendly pattern of production, attach importance to demand management, reduce unreasonable consumption and loss and moderately lower China＇s food reserve ratio.展开更多
We investigate the weight-based food self-sufficiency ratio (WSSR) for Japan over a 50-year period (1961-2011) by applying factorial component analysis technique in order to measure the changes of the WSSR quantitativ...We investigate the weight-based food self-sufficiency ratio (WSSR) for Japan over a 50-year period (1961-2011) by applying factorial component analysis technique in order to measure the changes of the WSSR quantitatively. Quantitative data analysis is employed to determine the drivers of those changes. Numerical results show that Japan experienced a drastic decline in its food self-sufficiency ratio (FSSR) during the above period. The factorial component analysis shows that such a decline was caused by the changes in the FSSR of the food groups/items, not in the quantity of the food supply. A number of characteristics of those changes are presented and a list of major food groups that have major impacts on the changes is constructed. The findings in this paper reiterate the alarming food security problem in Japan and provide clear insight into the causes of this problem. The findings in this study pick up where previous studies have left off, aid the food-related policy-making process and identify new ideas for future food research.展开更多
基金Zhu and Li acknowledge financial support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.71803085 and No.71673142)the China Postdoctoral Science Foundation (No.2017M621766)+1 种基金Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(No.KJQN201949)Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
文摘China s grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever-increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the "triple high" phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic-world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon.Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011-2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self-sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self-sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.
文摘Most Japanese are enjoying rich and convenient dietary habits nowadays. However, majorities of Japanese are feeling anxiety about the future food supply because Japan＇s food self-sufficiency ratio has fallen most rapidly in the last 45 years, and is lowest amongst countries with a population of more than 100 million. Major causes and mechanisms of the decline in the food self-sufficiency ratio over the last 45 years were analyzed. Drastic changes of dietary habits under rapid economic growth and sharp appreciation of the yen against the US dollar were found to be the major causes of the sharp decline of the food self-sufficiency ratio. Preliminary projections about the food self-sufficiency ratio in 2015 were carried out, and it was found that it will not be easy to achieve the policy goal of raising the food self-sufficiency ratio to 45% by 2015.
基金sponsored by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences(CASS)Innovation Programme
文摘Based on an internationally recognized concept of food security, this paper has created a system of eight indicators to analyze China＇s food security. For the proper control and analysis of this study, the authors of this paper have chosen these indicators： supply, distribution, consumption, utilization efficiency, food security results, stability, sustainability and controllability. Results indicate that China＇s food security is currently at a high level and has been increasing in recent years. China＇s food security has multiple advantages with various indicators that include a self-sufficiency ratio, per capita calorie intake and protein supply that are above world average levels, even exceeding the average level of some developed countries. Major challenges facing China＇s food security include an unreasonable nutrition structure and poor environmental sustainability. In order to increase China＇s food security level, efforts must be made to adjust output structure, adopt an environmentally friendly pattern of production, attach importance to demand management, reduce unreasonable consumption and loss and moderately lower China＇s food reserve ratio.
文摘We investigate the weight-based food self-sufficiency ratio (WSSR) for Japan over a 50-year period (1961-2011) by applying factorial component analysis technique in order to measure the changes of the WSSR quantitatively. Quantitative data analysis is employed to determine the drivers of those changes. Numerical results show that Japan experienced a drastic decline in its food self-sufficiency ratio (FSSR) during the above period. The factorial component analysis shows that such a decline was caused by the changes in the FSSR of the food groups/items, not in the quantity of the food supply. A number of characteristics of those changes are presented and a list of major food groups that have major impacts on the changes is constructed. The findings in this paper reiterate the alarming food security problem in Japan and provide clear insight into the causes of this problem. The findings in this study pick up where previous studies have left off, aid the food-related policy-making process and identify new ideas for future food research.
