为了解决自相似模型难以进行自相似网络流量趋势预测的问题,提出时间序列分析中短时相关模型(自适应自回归模型)的方法用于流量数据的估计;同时为了提高预测精度,提出改进的最小平方格型(modified least squarelattice,MLSL)算法,使模...为了解决自相似模型难以进行自相似网络流量趋势预测的问题,提出时间序列分析中短时相关模型(自适应自回归模型)的方法用于流量数据的估计;同时为了提高预测精度,提出改进的最小平方格型(modified least squarelattice,MLSL)算法,使模型参数不断递推修正,收敛到最佳值。仿真试验结果验证了短时相关模型在网络流量预测应用中的可行性,实现了自相似网络流量的短期预测,该算法比最小平方(least square,LS)算法均方误差减少20%,具有收敛快、预测精度高的优点,而该算法的计算量减少一半。展开更多
Mechanical transmissions are applied widely in various electrical and mechanical products, but some qualities of some high-end products can＇t meet people＇s demand, and need to be improved with some new methods or th...Mechanical transmissions are applied widely in various electrical and mechanical products, but some qualities of some high-end products can＇t meet people＇s demand, and need to be improved with some new methods or theories. The fractal theory is a new mathematic tool, which provides a new approach for the further study in the area of the mechanical transmission, and helps to solve some problems. The basic contents of the fractal theory are introduced firstly, especially the two important concepts, the self-similar fractal and the fractal dimension. Then, the deferent application of the fractal theory in this area are given to display how to further the study and improve some important characteristics of the mechanical transmission, such as contact surfaces, manufacturing precise, friction and wear, stiffness, strength, dynamics, fault diagnosis, etc. Finally, the problems of the fractal theory and its application are discussed, and some weaknesses, such as the calculation capacity of the fractal theory is not strong, are pointed out. Some new solutions are suggested, such as combining the fractal theory with the fuzzy theory, the chaos theory and so on. The new application fields of the fractal theory in the area of the mechanical transmission are proposed.展开更多
文摘为了解决自相似模型难以进行自相似网络流量趋势预测的问题,提出时间序列分析中短时相关模型(自适应自回归模型)的方法用于流量数据的估计;同时为了提高预测精度,提出改进的最小平方格型(modified least squarelattice,MLSL)算法,使模型参数不断递推修正,收敛到最佳值。仿真试验结果验证了短时相关模型在网络流量预测应用中的可行性,实现了自相似网络流量的短期预测,该算法比最小平方(least square,LS)算法均方误差减少20%,具有收敛快、预测精度高的优点,而该算法的计算量减少一半。
基金Supported by International Co-operation Program of China(Grant No.2014DFA80440)
文摘Mechanical transmissions are applied widely in various electrical and mechanical products, but some qualities of some high-end products can＇t meet people＇s demand, and need to be improved with some new methods or theories. The fractal theory is a new mathematic tool, which provides a new approach for the further study in the area of the mechanical transmission, and helps to solve some problems. The basic contents of the fractal theory are introduced firstly, especially the two important concepts, the self-similar fractal and the fractal dimension. Then, the deferent application of the fractal theory in this area are given to display how to further the study and improve some important characteristics of the mechanical transmission, such as contact surfaces, manufacturing precise, friction and wear, stiffness, strength, dynamics, fault diagnosis, etc. Finally, the problems of the fractal theory and its application are discussed, and some weaknesses, such as the calculation capacity of the fractal theory is not strong, are pointed out. Some new solutions are suggested, such as combining the fractal theory with the fuzzy theory, the chaos theory and so on. The new application fields of the fractal theory in the area of the mechanical transmission are proposed.
