Risk communication is a significant challenge in risk management.It serves different purposes;an important one is to improve the public risk awareness and mitigation.Because of the strong spatio-temporal component of ...Risk communication is a significant challenge in risk management.It serves different purposes;an important one is to improve the public risk awareness and mitigation.Because of the strong spatio-temporal component of natural hazards,maps can play a decisive role in communicating risk information.The application and design of maps for risk communication especially to the public has not been investigated comprehensively.Specific constraints and challenges of risk communication have not been considered systematically in the map design process so far.This study aims at developing a frame for the application and design of interactive risk and hazard maps for the public which is based on the specific constraints and challenges of risk communication.In a literature review it introduces concepts and methods from social sciences and psychology,which have been assessed as important for communicating risk information.The concepts and methods are adapted to map-mediated risk communication according to the approaches of Activity Theory.Communication objectives and tasks which are essential to improve risk mitigation are identified and geovisualization methods for information presentation are related according to the degree which they are able to serve them.Based on this,some principles for map-based risk communication are established.展开更多
公交风险地图基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS),对公交线路行经的风险点进行排查与评估,将评估结果以空间方式进行展示。公交风险地图具有直观、信息量大等优点,有助于公交安全风险管理。本文从预防交通事故的思路...公交风险地图基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS),对公交线路行经的风险点进行排查与评估,将评估结果以空间方式进行展示。公交风险地图具有直观、信息量大等优点,有助于公交安全风险管理。本文从预防交通事故的思路出发,对利用公交风险地图提升公交行业交通安全保障效果进行研究。展开更多
BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal stromal tumors(GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumor type in the gastrointestinal system. Presently, various classification systems to prognosticate GISTs have been proposed.AIM To e...BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal stromal tumors(GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumor type in the gastrointestinal system. Presently, various classification systems to prognosticate GISTs have been proposed.AIM To evaluate the application value of four different risk stratification systems for GISTs.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with GISTs and underwent surgical resection at four hospitals from 1998 to 2015 were identified from a database. Risk of recurrence was stratified by the modified National Institute of Health(NIH)criteria, the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology(AFIP) criteria, the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center(MSKCC) prognostic nomogram, and the contour maps. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves were established to compare the four abovementioned risk stratification systems based on the area under the curve(AUC).RESULTS A total of 1303 patients were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 55.77 ± 13.70 yr; 52.3% of the patients were male. The mean follow-up period was 64.91 ± 35.79 mo. Approximately 67.0% the tumors were located in the stomach, and 59.5% were smaller than 5 cm; 67.3% of the patients had a mitotic count ≤ 5/50 high-power fields(HPFs). Thirty-four tumors ruptured before and during surgery. Univariate analysis demonstrated that tumor size > 5 cm(P <0.05), mitotic count > 5/50 HPFs(P < 0.05), non-gastric location(P < 0.05), and tumor rupture(P < 0.05) were significantly associated with increased recurrence rates. According to the ROC curve, the AFIP criteria showed the largest AUC(0.754).CONCLUSION According to our data, the AFIP criteria were associated with a larger AUC than the NIH modified criteria, the MSKCC nomogram, and the contour maps, which might indicate that the AFIP criteria have better accuracy to support therapeutic decision-making for patients with GISTs.展开更多
Event evolution analysis which provides an effective approach to capture the main context of a story from explosive increased news texts has become the critical basis for many real applications,such as crisis and emer...Event evolution analysis which provides an effective approach to capture the main context of a story from explosive increased news texts has become the critical basis for many real applications,such as crisis and emergency management and decision making.Especially,the development of societal risk events which may cause some possible harm to society or individuals has been heavily concerned by both the government and the public.In order to capture the evolution and trends of societal risk events,this paper presents an improved algorithm based on the method of information maps.It contains an event-level cluster generation algorithm and an evaluation algorithm.The main work includes:1)Word embedding representation is adopted and event-level clusters are chosen as nodes of the events evolution chains which may comprehensively present the underlying structure of events.Meanwhile,clusters that consist of risk-labeled events enable to illustrate how events evolve along the time with transitions of risks.2)One real-world case,the event of"Chinese Red Cross",is studied and a series of experiments are conducted.3)An evaluation algorithm is proposed on the basis of indicators of map construction without massive human-annotated dataset.Our approach for event evolution analysis automatically generates a visual evolution of societal risk events,displaying a clear and structural picture of events development.展开更多
Floods are one of the major hazards worldwide. They are the source of huge risks in rural and urban areas, resulting in severe impacts on the civil society, industry and the economy. The Elbe River has suffered from m...Floods are one of the major hazards worldwide. They are the source of huge risks in rural and urban areas, resulting in severe impacts on the civil society, industry and the economy. The Elbe River has suffered from many severe floods during recent decades. In this study, the zones flooded during 2011 were analyzed using TerraSAR-X images and a digital elevation model for the area in order to identify possible ways to mitigate flood hazards in the future, regarding sustainable land-use. Two study areas are investigated, around the Walmsburg oxbow and the Wehningen oxbow. These are located between Elbe-Kilometer (505-520) and (533-543), respectively, within the Lower Saxonian Elbe River Biosphere Reserve. Those areas are characterized by several types of land use, with agricultural land use being predominant. The study investigated the possibility of using a Decision-Tree object-based classifier for determining the major land uses and the extent of the inundation areas. The inundation areas identify for 2011 submerged some agricultural fields that must be added to existing flood risk maps, and future cultivation activities there prevented to avoid the possible economic losses. Furthermore, part of the residential area is located within the high flood zone, and must be included in risk maps to avoid the possible human and economic losses, to achieve sustainable land use for the areas studied.展开更多
A rise in the number of flood-affected people and areas has increased the interest in new methods and concepts that account for this change.Citizens are integrated into disaster risk reduction processes through partic...A rise in the number of flood-affected people and areas has increased the interest in new methods and concepts that account for this change.Citizens are integrated into disaster risk reduction processes through participatory approaches and can provide valuable up-to-date local knowledge.During a field study in Eberbach(Baden–Wuerttemberg,Germany)sketch maps and questionnaires were used to capture local knowledge about flooding.Based on a previous study on urban flooding in Santiago de Chile,the tools were adapted and applied to river flooding in the city of Eberbach,which is regularly flooded by the Neckar River,a major river in southwest Germany.The empirical database of the study comprises 40 participants in the study area and 40 in a control area.Half of the participants in each group are residents and half are pedestrians.Purposive sampling was used,and the questionnaires aimed to gather demographic information and explore what factors,such as property,influence the risk perception of the study participants.The results show that residents identify a larger spatial area as at risk than pedestrians,and owning property leads to higher risk awareness.The flood type influenced the choice of the base maps for the sketch maps.For river flooding,one map with an overview of the area was sufficient,while for urban flooding a second map with more details of the area also enables the marking of small streets.The information gathered can complement authoritative data such as from flood models.This participatory approach also increases the communication and trust between local governments,researchers,and citizens.展开更多
This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semideciduous forest fragments,creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic d...This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semideciduous forest fragments,creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator(KDE)in the municipality of Sorocaba,Sao Paulo state,Brazil.The logarithmic Telicyn index,Monte Alegre formula(MAF)and enhanced Monte Alegre formula(MAF+)were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016.Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology(INMET)and the Institute for Space Research(INPE),respectively.Two performance measures were calculated:Heidke skill score(SS)and success rate(SR).The MAF+index was the most accurate,with values of SS and SR of 0.611%and 62.8%,respectively.The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high(63 km^2)and very high(47 km^2)risk of fires in the municipality.Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires.展开更多
文摘Risk communication is a significant challenge in risk management.It serves different purposes;an important one is to improve the public risk awareness and mitigation.Because of the strong spatio-temporal component of natural hazards,maps can play a decisive role in communicating risk information.The application and design of maps for risk communication especially to the public has not been investigated comprehensively.Specific constraints and challenges of risk communication have not been considered systematically in the map design process so far.This study aims at developing a frame for the application and design of interactive risk and hazard maps for the public which is based on the specific constraints and challenges of risk communication.In a literature review it introduces concepts and methods from social sciences and psychology,which have been assessed as important for communicating risk information.The concepts and methods are adapted to map-mediated risk communication according to the approaches of Activity Theory.Communication objectives and tasks which are essential to improve risk mitigation are identified and geovisualization methods for information presentation are related according to the degree which they are able to serve them.Based on this,some principles for map-based risk communication are established.
文摘公交风险地图基于地理信息系统(Geographic Information System,GIS),对公交线路行经的风险点进行排查与评估,将评估结果以空间方式进行展示。公交风险地图具有直观、信息量大等优点,有助于公交安全风险管理。本文从预防交通事故的思路出发,对利用公交风险地图提升公交行业交通安全保障效果进行研究。
基金the State Key Project of Research and Development Plan,No.2017YFC0108300 and No.2017YFC01083032018 Special Funds for the Cultivation of Guangdong College Students'Scientific and Technological Innovation(Climbing Program Special Funds),No.pdjha0094
文摘BACKGROUND Gastrointestinal stromal tumors(GISTs) are the most common mesenchymal tumor type in the gastrointestinal system. Presently, various classification systems to prognosticate GISTs have been proposed.AIM To evaluate the application value of four different risk stratification systems for GISTs.METHODS Patients who were diagnosed with GISTs and underwent surgical resection at four hospitals from 1998 to 2015 were identified from a database. Risk of recurrence was stratified by the modified National Institute of Health(NIH)criteria, the Armed Forces Institute of Pathology(AFIP) criteria, the Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center(MSKCC) prognostic nomogram, and the contour maps. Receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves were established to compare the four abovementioned risk stratification systems based on the area under the curve(AUC).RESULTS A total of 1303 patients were included in the study. The mean age of the patients was 55.77 ± 13.70 yr; 52.3% of the patients were male. The mean follow-up period was 64.91 ± 35.79 mo. Approximately 67.0% the tumors were located in the stomach, and 59.5% were smaller than 5 cm; 67.3% of the patients had a mitotic count ≤ 5/50 high-power fields(HPFs). Thirty-four tumors ruptured before and during surgery. Univariate analysis demonstrated that tumor size > 5 cm(P <0.05), mitotic count > 5/50 HPFs(P < 0.05), non-gastric location(P < 0.05), and tumor rupture(P < 0.05) were significantly associated with increased recurrence rates. According to the ROC curve, the AFIP criteria showed the largest AUC(0.754).CONCLUSION According to our data, the AFIP criteria were associated with a larger AUC than the NIH modified criteria, the MSKCC nomogram, and the contour maps, which might indicate that the AFIP criteria have better accuracy to support therapeutic decision-making for patients with GISTs.
基金This work has been supported by National Key Research and Development Program of)China,under Grant No.2016YFB1000902,Na-tional Natural Science Foundation of China,under Grant No.71731002 and No.71971190 and Beijing Postdoctoral Research Foundation,under Grant No.ZZ2019-92The main con-tents had been presented at the 19th Inter-national Symposium on Knowledge and Sys-tems Sciences(KSS2018)held in Tokyo during November 17-19,2018.The referees are greatly appreciated for their help to improve the qual-ity of the extended paper.
文摘Event evolution analysis which provides an effective approach to capture the main context of a story from explosive increased news texts has become the critical basis for many real applications,such as crisis and emergency management and decision making.Especially,the development of societal risk events which may cause some possible harm to society or individuals has been heavily concerned by both the government and the public.In order to capture the evolution and trends of societal risk events,this paper presents an improved algorithm based on the method of information maps.It contains an event-level cluster generation algorithm and an evaluation algorithm.The main work includes:1)Word embedding representation is adopted and event-level clusters are chosen as nodes of the events evolution chains which may comprehensively present the underlying structure of events.Meanwhile,clusters that consist of risk-labeled events enable to illustrate how events evolve along the time with transitions of risks.2)One real-world case,the event of"Chinese Red Cross",is studied and a series of experiments are conducted.3)An evaluation algorithm is proposed on the basis of indicators of map construction without massive human-annotated dataset.Our approach for event evolution analysis automatically generates a visual evolution of societal risk events,displaying a clear and structural picture of events development.
文摘Floods are one of the major hazards worldwide. They are the source of huge risks in rural and urban areas, resulting in severe impacts on the civil society, industry and the economy. The Elbe River has suffered from many severe floods during recent decades. In this study, the zones flooded during 2011 were analyzed using TerraSAR-X images and a digital elevation model for the area in order to identify possible ways to mitigate flood hazards in the future, regarding sustainable land-use. Two study areas are investigated, around the Walmsburg oxbow and the Wehningen oxbow. These are located between Elbe-Kilometer (505-520) and (533-543), respectively, within the Lower Saxonian Elbe River Biosphere Reserve. Those areas are characterized by several types of land use, with agricultural land use being predominant. The study investigated the possibility of using a Decision-Tree object-based classifier for determining the major land uses and the extent of the inundation areas. The inundation areas identify for 2011 submerged some agricultural fields that must be added to existing flood risk maps, and future cultivation activities there prevented to avoid the possible economic losses. Furthermore, part of the residential area is located within the high flood zone, and must be included in risk maps to avoid the possible human and economic losses, to achieve sustainable land use for the areas studied.
文摘A rise in the number of flood-affected people and areas has increased the interest in new methods and concepts that account for this change.Citizens are integrated into disaster risk reduction processes through participatory approaches and can provide valuable up-to-date local knowledge.During a field study in Eberbach(Baden–Wuerttemberg,Germany)sketch maps and questionnaires were used to capture local knowledge about flooding.Based on a previous study on urban flooding in Santiago de Chile,the tools were adapted and applied to river flooding in the city of Eberbach,which is regularly flooded by the Neckar River,a major river in southwest Germany.The empirical database of the study comprises 40 participants in the study area and 40 in a control area.Half of the participants in each group are residents and half are pedestrians.Purposive sampling was used,and the questionnaires aimed to gather demographic information and explore what factors,such as property,influence the risk perception of the study participants.The results show that residents identify a larger spatial area as at risk than pedestrians,and owning property leads to higher risk awareness.The flood type influenced the choice of the base maps for the sketch maps.For river flooding,one map with an overview of the area was sufficient,while for urban flooding a second map with more details of the area also enables the marking of small streets.The information gathered can complement authoritative data such as from flood models.This participatory approach also increases the communication and trust between local governments,researchers,and citizens.
文摘This study compares the performance of three fire risk indices for accuracy in predicting fires in semideciduous forest fragments,creates a fire risk map by integrating historical fire occurrences in a probabilistic density surface using the Kernel density estimator(KDE)in the municipality of Sorocaba,Sao Paulo state,Brazil.The logarithmic Telicyn index,Monte Alegre formula(MAF)and enhanced Monte Alegre formula(MAF+)were employed using data for the period 1 January 2005 to 31 December 2016.Meteorological data and numbers of fire occurrences were obtained from the National Institute of Meteorology(INMET)and the Institute for Space Research(INPE),respectively.Two performance measures were calculated:Heidke skill score(SS)and success rate(SR).The MAF+index was the most accurate,with values of SS and SR of 0.611%and 62.8%,respectively.The fire risk map revealed two most susceptible areas with high(63 km^2)and very high(47 km^2)risk of fires in the municipality.Identification of the best risk index and the generation of fire risk maps can contribute to better planning and cost reduction in preventing and fighting forest fires.
基金Project(41973078)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(2022SK2073)supported by the Hunan Provincial Natural Science Foundation,China。
