In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological ...In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.展开更多
Background This retrospective study aimed to investigate the difference of the intra-dural reserving space for spinal cord in magnetic resonance imaging （MRI） between patients with and without developmental cervical...Background This retrospective study aimed to investigate the difference of the intra-dural reserving space for spinal cord in magnetic resonance imaging （MRI） between patients with and without developmental cervical stenosis and its clinical significance.Methods A total of 264 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy who had decompression surgeries were recruited.The average follow-up was 29 months.Based on their lateral radiographs,they were divided into stenosis group and non-stenosis group.On the magnetic resonance images,the ratio of the sagittal diameter of the dural sac to that of the vertebral body was measured and calculated as MRI Pavlov ratio at the mid-vertebral level on T2-weighted sagittal images from C3 to C7.The ratio of the transverse area of the spinal cord to that of the dural sac was measured and calculated as occupation ratio on T2-weighted axial images at the same levels.The MRI Pavlov ratio and occupation ratio were compared between the two groups.The stenosis group was further divided into space-reserving and non-space-reserving subgroups based on the occupation ratios; then clinical parameters were compared between the two subgroups to determine the clinical significance of the reserving space.Results The MRI Pavlov ratio of the stenosis group was significantly smaller than that of the non-stenosis group at C3-C7 （P ＜0.01）,while the occupation ratio was significantly larger only at C7 （P ＜0.05）.For the space-reserving subgroup,the postoperative recovery rate was lower （P ＜0.05）.The postoperative recovery rate was （23±6）％ in anterior approach,larger than （-23±15）％ in posterior approach （P ＜0.05）.Conclusions Developmental cervical stenosis is associated with a smaller sagittal diameter of the dural sac,but does not lead to a significant decrease in intra-dural space available for the cord.For patients with normal intra-dural space,the recovery after anterior decompression surgery was better than posterior approach.展开更多
This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the ch...This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the challenges of accurately predicting insurance claim frequencies, severities, and overall loss reserves while accounting for inflation adjustments. Through comprehensive data analysis and model development, this research explores the effectiveness of ANN methodologies in capturing complex nonlinear relationships within insurance data. The study leverages a data set comprising automobile insurance policyholder information, claim history, and economic indicators to train and validate the ANN-based reserving model. Key aspects of the methodology include data preprocessing techniques such as one-hot encoding and scaling, followed by the construction of frequency, severity, and overall loss reserving models using ANN architectures. Moreover, the model incorporates inflation adjustment factors to ensure the accurate estimation of future loss reserves in real terms. Results from the study demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the ANN-based reserving model compared to traditional actuarial methods, with substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the model’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements, such as IFRS17, highlights its practical relevance in the insurance industry. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of actuarial science and provide valuable insights for insurance companies seeking more accurate and efficient loss reserving techniques. The proposed ANN-based approach offers a promising avenue for enhancing risk management practices and optimizing financial decision-making processes in the automobile insurance sector.展开更多
This paper investigates an optimal decision problem in a single-period, two-stage supply chain with capacity reservation contract. At the beginning of the planning horizon, the retailer, who faces stochastic demand, r...This paper investigates an optimal decision problem in a single-period, two-stage supply chain with capacity reservation contract. At the beginning of the planning horizon, the retailer, who faces stochastic demand, reserves future capacity according to his forecasting of the demand. The supplier then constructs capacity. At the beginning of the selling season, the retailer updates the demand forecasting and places an order. When the retailer＇s demand is greater than the supplier＇s capacity, the supplier can meet the retailer＇s demand by outsourcing. We analyze the optimal decision of each player in both centralized and decentralized systems. Furthermore, under the case in which demand follows a uniform distribution, we obtain the closed-form optimal strategies of each player for both centralized and decentralized systems and conduct numerical studies to reveal additional conclusions. The numerical studies show that the optimal reservation capacity for the retailer and the optimal constructing capacity for the supplier in the decentralized system are both less than the optimal constructing capacity in the centralized system. Furthermore, we also find that the profit loss due to decentralization always exists and increases in indeterminacy.展开更多
The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was co...The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was considered as succeeding generation of a mother-board project containing some subcategories with various applications. MERI, constructed based on the binary coding system using DNA synthesizer machine, enables retrievable reading of molecular structures using DNA sequencer machine. It has high capacity for reservation of information about 1.212 × 1011 Kb/cm2 with long-term stability. It can be used in various fields of science and technology regarding its high capacity, small size and safety measures.展开更多
“Treating vitality”and“ reserving vitality”are very important manipulations during acupuncture treatment of diseases.“Treating vitality” comprises adjusting and treating both the acupuncture doctor＇s and the pa...“Treating vitality”and“ reserving vitality”are very important manipulations during acupuncture treatment of diseases.“Treating vitality” comprises adjusting and treating both the acupuncture doctor＇s and the patient＇s vitality; while “reserving vitality” demands the acupuncture doctor carefully to experience the sensations of ＇excess＇ or ＇deficiency＇ under the needle, wait for the arrival of qi, observe the patient＇s responses, and then perform reducing or reinforcing needling manipulations in accordance with the state of excess-or deficiency-syndrome. “Treating vitality”and “reserving vitality” impenetrate the whole process of acupuncture treatment all along. Through years＇ clinical practice, the author of the present paper discusses the functions of the two aspects in every stage of acupuncture treatment, including before acupuncture, during needle insertion, during retention and withdrawal of the needle. The purpose of this paper is to explain the clinical significance of treating and reserving vitality and arouse many acupuncture doctors＇attention.展开更多
Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from th...Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end. There was statistical significant difference between 3 cm or more and 2 cm or less. The local recurrence was also related to the pathologic stage, histologic differentiation and implant of free cancer cells. It is suggested that the surgical indication of saving the anus be strict and without stretching, the safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end should not be less than 2 cm in early rectal cancer and not less than 4 cm in advanced lesions. During the operation, no touching tumor technique, thorough rinsing of the peritoneal cavity and pre- or post-operative radiotherapy are important for prevention of local recurrence. Early local recurrent rectal cancer can be detected by periodic examinations.展开更多
For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as p...For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as payments of individual claims but also heterogeneity among policies.We give over-dispersed Poisson assumption about the moments of reporting developments and payments of every individual claims.Model estimation is conducted under quasi-likelihood theory.Analytic expressions are derived for the expectation and variance of outstanding liabilities,given historical observations.We utilise conditional mean square error of prediction(MSEP)to measure the accuracy of loss reserving and also theoretically prove that when risk portfolio size is large enough,IIM shows a higher prediction accuracy than individ-ual/micro data model(IDM)in predicting the outstanding liabilities,if the heterogeneity indeed influences claims developments and otherwise IIM is asymptotically equivalent to IDM.Some simulations are conducted to investigate the conditional MSEPs for IIM and IDM.A real data analysis is performed basing on real observations in health insurance.展开更多
We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transc...We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transcapacitances are investigated and the strong correlations between the trans-capacitance variations are discovered. A simple statistical model is proposed for accurately capturing total gate capacitance variability based on the correlations. The model fits very well with the Monte Carlo simulations and the average errors are -0.033% for n-type metal-oxide semiconductor and -0.012% for p-type metal-oxide semiconductor, respectively. Our simulation studies also indicate that, owing to these correlations, the total gate capacitance variability will not dominate in gate capacitance variations.展开更多
文摘In this paper, the Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Model is developed and extended using machine learning. The traditional actuarial reserving techniques are no longer compatible with the increase in technological advancement currently at hand. As a result, the development of the alternative Artificial Intelligence Based Automated Actuarial Loss Reserving Methodology which captures diverse risk profiles for various policyholders through augmenting the Micro Finance services, Auto Insurance Services and Both Services lines of business on the same platform through the computation of the Comprehensive Automated Actuarial Loss Reserves (CAALR) has been implemented in this paper. The introduction of the four further types of actuarial loss reserves to those existing in the actuarial literature seems to significantly reduce lapse rates, reduce the reinsurance costs as well as expenses and outgo. As a matter of consequence, this helps to bring together a combination of new and existing policyholders in the insurance company. The frequency severity models have been extended in this paper using ten machine learning algorithms which ultimately leads to the derivation of the proposed machine learning-based actuarial loss reserving model which remarkably performed well when compared to the traditional chain ladder actuarial reserving method using simulated data.
文摘Background This retrospective study aimed to investigate the difference of the intra-dural reserving space for spinal cord in magnetic resonance imaging （MRI） between patients with and without developmental cervical stenosis and its clinical significance.Methods A total of 264 patients with cervical spondylotic myelopathy who had decompression surgeries were recruited.The average follow-up was 29 months.Based on their lateral radiographs,they were divided into stenosis group and non-stenosis group.On the magnetic resonance images,the ratio of the sagittal diameter of the dural sac to that of the vertebral body was measured and calculated as MRI Pavlov ratio at the mid-vertebral level on T2-weighted sagittal images from C3 to C7.The ratio of the transverse area of the spinal cord to that of the dural sac was measured and calculated as occupation ratio on T2-weighted axial images at the same levels.The MRI Pavlov ratio and occupation ratio were compared between the two groups.The stenosis group was further divided into space-reserving and non-space-reserving subgroups based on the occupation ratios; then clinical parameters were compared between the two subgroups to determine the clinical significance of the reserving space.Results The MRI Pavlov ratio of the stenosis group was significantly smaller than that of the non-stenosis group at C3-C7 （P ＜0.01）,while the occupation ratio was significantly larger only at C7 （P ＜0.05）.For the space-reserving subgroup,the postoperative recovery rate was lower （P ＜0.05）.The postoperative recovery rate was （23±6）％ in anterior approach,larger than （-23±15）％ in posterior approach （P ＜0.05）.Conclusions Developmental cervical stenosis is associated with a smaller sagittal diameter of the dural sac,but does not lead to a significant decrease in intra-dural space available for the cord.For patients with normal intra-dural space,the recovery after anterior decompression surgery was better than posterior approach.
文摘This study proposes a novel approach for estimating automobile insurance loss reserves utilizing Artificial Neural Network (ANN) techniques integrated with actuarial data intelligence. The model aims to address the challenges of accurately predicting insurance claim frequencies, severities, and overall loss reserves while accounting for inflation adjustments. Through comprehensive data analysis and model development, this research explores the effectiveness of ANN methodologies in capturing complex nonlinear relationships within insurance data. The study leverages a data set comprising automobile insurance policyholder information, claim history, and economic indicators to train and validate the ANN-based reserving model. Key aspects of the methodology include data preprocessing techniques such as one-hot encoding and scaling, followed by the construction of frequency, severity, and overall loss reserving models using ANN architectures. Moreover, the model incorporates inflation adjustment factors to ensure the accurate estimation of future loss reserves in real terms. Results from the study demonstrate the superior predictive performance of the ANN-based reserving model compared to traditional actuarial methods, with substantial improvements in accuracy and robustness. Furthermore, the model’s ability to adapt to changing market conditions and regulatory requirements, such as IFRS17, highlights its practical relevance in the insurance industry. The findings of this research contribute to the advancement of actuarial science and provide valuable insights for insurance companies seeking more accurate and efficient loss reserving techniques. The proposed ANN-based approach offers a promising avenue for enhancing risk management practices and optimizing financial decision-making processes in the automobile insurance sector.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71171088,71072118,70901029,71171027,71131004)NCET-12-0081the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,HUST:CXY12M013
文摘This paper investigates an optimal decision problem in a single-period, two-stage supply chain with capacity reservation contract. At the beginning of the planning horizon, the retailer, who faces stochastic demand, reserves future capacity according to his forecasting of the demand. The supplier then constructs capacity. At the beginning of the selling season, the retailer updates the demand forecasting and places an order. When the retailer＇s demand is greater than the supplier＇s capacity, the supplier can meet the retailer＇s demand by outsourcing. We analyze the optimal decision of each player in both centralized and decentralized systems. Furthermore, under the case in which demand follows a uniform distribution, we obtain the closed-form optimal strategies of each player for both centralized and decentralized systems and conduct numerical studies to reveal additional conclusions. The numerical studies show that the optimal reservation capacity for the retailer and the optimal constructing capacity for the supplier in the decentralized system are both less than the optimal constructing capacity in the centralized system. Furthermore, we also find that the profit loss due to decentralization always exists and increases in indeterminacy.
文摘The idea of application from DNA information organization for providing the next generation super-computers has been proposed by lessons learned from nature. Thus, molecular environment of reserving information was considered as succeeding generation of a mother-board project containing some subcategories with various applications. MERI, constructed based on the binary coding system using DNA synthesizer machine, enables retrievable reading of molecular structures using DNA sequencer machine. It has high capacity for reservation of information about 1.212 × 1011 Kb/cm2 with long-term stability. It can be used in various fields of science and technology regarding its high capacity, small size and safety measures.
文摘“Treating vitality”and“ reserving vitality”are very important manipulations during acupuncture treatment of diseases.“Treating vitality” comprises adjusting and treating both the acupuncture doctor＇s and the patient＇s vitality; while “reserving vitality” demands the acupuncture doctor carefully to experience the sensations of ＇excess＇ or ＇deficiency＇ under the needle, wait for the arrival of qi, observe the patient＇s responses, and then perform reducing or reinforcing needling manipulations in accordance with the state of excess-or deficiency-syndrome. “Treating vitality”and “reserving vitality” impenetrate the whole process of acupuncture treatment all along. Through years＇ clinical practice, the author of the present paper discusses the functions of the two aspects in every stage of acupuncture treatment, including before acupuncture, during needle insertion, during retention and withdrawal of the needle. The purpose of this paper is to explain the clinical significance of treating and reserving vitality and arouse many acupuncture doctors＇attention.
文摘Of seventy-one patients with rectal cancer after radical resection retaining the anus, 15 developed local recurrence with a recurrence rate of 21.1%. Local recurrence was correlated with improper safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end. There was statistical significant difference between 3 cm or more and 2 cm or less. The local recurrence was also related to the pathologic stage, histologic differentiation and implant of free cancer cells. It is suggested that the surgical indication of saving the anus be strict and without stretching, the safety margin from the lower edge of cancer to the anal end should not be less than 2 cm in early rectal cancer and not less than 4 cm in advanced lesions. During the operation, no touching tumor technique, thorough rinsing of the peritoneal cavity and pre- or post-operative radiotherapy are important for prevention of local recurrence. Early local recurrent rectal cancer can be detected by periodic examinations.
基金This work was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(71771089)the Shanghai Philosophy and Social Sci-ence Foundation(2015BGL001)+1 种基金the National Social Science Foundation Key Program of China(17ZDA091)China Scholarship Council(201906140045)。
文摘For stochastic loss reserving,we propose an individual information model(IIM)which accom-modates not only individual/micro data consisting of incurring times,reporting developments,settlement developments as well as payments of individual claims but also heterogeneity among policies.We give over-dispersed Poisson assumption about the moments of reporting developments and payments of every individual claims.Model estimation is conducted under quasi-likelihood theory.Analytic expressions are derived for the expectation and variance of outstanding liabilities,given historical observations.We utilise conditional mean square error of prediction(MSEP)to measure the accuracy of loss reserving and also theoretically prove that when risk portfolio size is large enough,IIM shows a higher prediction accuracy than individ-ual/micro data model(IDM)in predicting the outstanding liabilities,if the heterogeneity indeed influences claims developments and otherwise IIM is asymptotically equivalent to IDM.Some simulations are conducted to investigate the conditional MSEPs for IIM and IDM.A real data analysis is performed basing on real observations in health insurance.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos 61271064,61571171 and 61302009the Zhejiang Provincial Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant No LZ12F01001
文摘We consider intrinsic gate capacitance variations due to random dopants in the nanometer metal oxide semi- conductor field effect transistor （MOSFET） channel. The variations of total gate capacitance and gate transcapacitances are investigated and the strong correlations between the trans-capacitance variations are discovered. A simple statistical model is proposed for accurately capturing total gate capacitance variability based on the correlations. The model fits very well with the Monte Carlo simulations and the average errors are -0.033% for n-type metal-oxide semiconductor and -0.012% for p-type metal-oxide semiconductor, respectively. Our simulation studies also indicate that, owing to these correlations, the total gate capacitance variability will not dominate in gate capacitance variations.
