在已有的极值模型的基础上,利用超阈值(peaks over threshold,POT)提出基于相对值法的POT-CVaR_(Bootstrap)模型,并对中国电网停电损失风险进行评估。结合电网装机容量的发展趋势,对比利用绝对值法与相对值法统计的停电损失负荷数据,表...在已有的极值模型的基础上,利用超阈值(peaks over threshold,POT)提出基于相对值法的POT-CVaR_(Bootstrap)模型,并对中国电网停电损失风险进行评估。结合电网装机容量的发展趋势,对比利用绝对值法与相对值法统计的停电损失负荷数据,表明相对值预测更符合未来电网损失;基于相对值数据建立POT模型,提出W^(2)&A^(2)-Hill图的阈值选取方法。为了解决电网停电损失负荷样本数量稀少的问题,结合对有限样本重复抽样的Bootstrap法,建立CVaR_(Bootstrap)停电损失风险评估模型,利用中国电网停电损失负荷数据验证了模型的有效性,得出CVaR_(Bootstrap)模型的评估结果更优,在此基础上给出我国未来10 a的停电事故风险评估,未来很长一段时间我国的停电损失负荷将仍呈现增长趋势,且华北、华东和南方地区是停电事故发生较严重的地区。展开更多
We used panel data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2009 and entropy methods to evaluate regional tourism resources endowment.Combined with regional tourism revenue,we constructed an asynchronous index and quanti...We used panel data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2009 and entropy methods to evaluate regional tourism resources endowment.Combined with regional tourism revenue,we constructed an asynchronous index and quantitatively evaluated every area＇s asynchronous phenomenon regarding tourism resources.We found that Chinese mainland tourism resources have asynchronous phenomenon： tourism is positively asynchronous in the east（Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin region） and negatively asynchronous in central and western China.The total efficiency of tourism resources in eastern China is mainly driven by pure technology efficiency and by scale efficiency in western China.In addition to some provinces,the ranking of provincial total efficiency and the asynchronous index has a strong positive correlation.We conclude with several suggestions for the development of tourism resources across China.展开更多
文摘在已有的极值模型的基础上,利用超阈值(peaks over threshold,POT)提出基于相对值法的POT-CVaR_(Bootstrap)模型,并对中国电网停电损失风险进行评估。结合电网装机容量的发展趋势,对比利用绝对值法与相对值法统计的停电损失负荷数据,表明相对值预测更符合未来电网损失;基于相对值数据建立POT模型,提出W^(2)&A^(2)-Hill图的阈值选取方法。为了解决电网停电损失负荷样本数量稀少的问题,结合对有限样本重复抽样的Bootstrap法,建立CVaR_(Bootstrap)停电损失风险评估模型,利用中国电网停电损失负荷数据验证了模型的有效性,得出CVaR_(Bootstrap)模型的评估结果更优,在此基础上给出我国未来10 a的停电事故风险评估,未来很长一段时间我国的停电损失负荷将仍呈现增长趋势,且华北、华东和南方地区是停电事故发生较严重的地区。
基金National Natural Science Foundation of China(4127114941301145)+1 种基金a project funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(PAPD)Youth Foundation of Humanities and Social Science of Education Ministry(12YJC790175)
文摘We used panel data for 31 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2009 and entropy methods to evaluate regional tourism resources endowment.Combined with regional tourism revenue,we constructed an asynchronous index and quantitatively evaluated every area＇s asynchronous phenomenon regarding tourism resources.We found that Chinese mainland tourism resources have asynchronous phenomenon： tourism is positively asynchronous in the east（Yangtze River Delta,Pearl River Delta and Beijing-Tianjin region） and negatively asynchronous in central and western China.The total efficiency of tourism resources in eastern China is mainly driven by pure technology efficiency and by scale efficiency in western China.In addition to some provinces,the ranking of provincial total efficiency and the asynchronous index has a strong positive correlation.We conclude with several suggestions for the development of tourism resources across China.
