The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and analyzed the earthquake probabiliti...The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and analyzed the earthquake probabilities of the major faults with the elapsed time much greater than the recurrence interval in the northwest region of Bei- jing (China) in 100-year by using both Brownian passage-time model and Poisson model, and concluded that the calculated results obtained from Brownian passage-time model is more reasonable.展开更多
Recurrence model for strong earthquakes on Fen Wei seismic belt is proposed on the basis of the collection and analysis of fault slip rate, paleoearthquake sequence, maximum displacement of each event etc. on 21 faul...Recurrence model for strong earthquakes on Fen Wei seismic belt is proposed on the basis of the collection and analysis of fault slip rate, paleoearthquake sequence, maximum displacement of each event etc. on 21 fault segments of the belt, which are active since late Late Pleistocene. And the long and intermediate term seismic potential of the belt has been evaluated through four approaches.展开更多
Based on detailed studies of paleoearthquakes along major active faults in the transition area between the north eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau and the Ordos block, this paper discusses temporal and spatial distrib...Based on detailed studies of paleoearthquakes along major active faults in the transition area between the north eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau and the Ordos block, this paper discusses temporal and spatial distribution of paleoearthquakes and their regional recurrent behavior. The regional paleoarthquake recurrence model in the area exhibits features of temporal and spatial clustering, which may be divided into two kinds. One has a time span about 300 years, and the other has about 1 000 years.展开更多
基金Joint Seismological Science Foundation of China (103034) and Key Project ″Assessment of Seismic Safety″ from China Earthquake Administration during the tenth Five-year Plan.
文摘The mathematic theory of Brownian passage-time model and its difference from other recurrence models such as Poisson, lognormal, gamma and Weibull, were introduced. We assessed and analyzed the earthquake probabilities of the major faults with the elapsed time much greater than the recurrence interval in the northwest region of Bei- jing (China) in 100-year by using both Brownian passage-time model and Poisson model, and concluded that the calculated results obtained from Brownian passage-time model is more reasonable.
文摘Recurrence model for strong earthquakes on Fen Wei seismic belt is proposed on the basis of the collection and analysis of fault slip rate, paleoearthquake sequence, maximum displacement of each event etc. on 21 fault segments of the belt, which are active since late Late Pleistocene. And the long and intermediate term seismic potential of the belt has been evaluated through four approaches.
文摘Based on detailed studies of paleoearthquakes along major active faults in the transition area between the north eastern margin of Tibetan Plateau and the Ordos block, this paper discusses temporal and spatial distribution of paleoearthquakes and their regional recurrent behavior. The regional paleoarthquake recurrence model in the area exhibits features of temporal and spatial clustering, which may be divided into two kinds. One has a time span about 300 years, and the other has about 1 000 years.
