2011-03-11日本福岛核电站放射性物质发生泄漏事件,本研究基于MASNUM(Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海洋环流模式,建立了西北太平洋海洋放射性物质输运扩散模式,对事故释放的^(137)Cs在海洋中的输运和扩散过程...2011-03-11日本福岛核电站放射性物质发生泄漏事件,本研究基于MASNUM(Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海洋环流模式,建立了西北太平洋海洋放射性物质输运扩散模式,对事故释放的^(137)Cs在海洋中的输运和扩散过程进行了20a的模拟与预测。根据与观测资料的比较,验证了所建立的模式具备模拟放射性物质在海洋中的输运扩散过程的能力。结果显示:至2015年,^(137)Cs表层活度浓度已经扩散至整个中国海域,活度浓度值在0.01Bq/m^3左右;事故发生10a后,研究海域^(137)Cs表层活度浓度趋于均匀,为0.20~0.60Bq/m^3左右;20a后,^(137)Cs在海洋表层的活度浓度要小于0.15Bq/m^3。垂向扩散的结果显示:事故发生10a后,黄海海域^(137)Cs垂向分布较为均匀,东海东部陆架海域活度浓度高于西部海域,且上层海水中^(137)Cs活度浓度高于底层海水,南海北部海域^(137)Cs活度浓度高于南部海域,且略小于黄海和东海;至2030年,中国近海^(137)Cs的活度浓度的垂向分布趋于均匀,南海略高于黄海和东海;日本海^(137)Cs活度浓度主要集中在表层,最大活度浓度出现在2016年,约为0.20Bq/m^3;西北太平洋海域^(137)Cs活度浓度要高于其他4个海域;2030年以后,整个海域^(137)Cs活度浓度在水平和垂向分布均趋于均匀,均小于0.15Bq/m^3。展开更多
The Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) in the 594 km× 594 km model domain with the horizontal grid scale of 3 km×3 km centered at a power plant and the Eulerian Transport Model (ETM) modified from t...The Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) in the 594 km× 594 km model domain with the horizontal grid scale of 3 km×3 km centered at a power plant and the Eulerian Transport Model (ETM) modified from the Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2) in the domain of 70° LAT × 140° LON with the horizontal grid scale of 27 km×27 km have been developed. These models have been implemented to simulate the concentration and deposition of radionuclides (137Cs and 131I) released from the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. It is found that both models are able to simulate quite reasonably the observed concentrations of 137Cs and 131I near the power plant. However, the LPDM model is more useful for the estimation of concentration near the power plant site in details whereas the ETM model is good for the long-range transport processes of the radionuclide plume. The estimated maximum mean surface concentration, column integrated mean concentration and the total deposition (wet+dry) by LPDM for the period from 12 March to 30 April 2011 are, respectively found to be 2.975 × 102 Bq m-3, 3.7 × 107 Bq m-2, and 1.78 × 1014 Bq m-2 for 137Cs and 1.96 × 104 Bq m-3, 2.24 × 109 Bq m-2 and 5.96 × 1014 Bq m-2 for 131I. The radionuclide plumes released from the accident power plant are found to spread wide regions not only the whole model domain of downwind regions but the upwind regions of Russia, Mongolia, Korea, eastern China, Philippines and Vietnam within the analysis period.展开更多
文摘2011-03-11日本福岛核电站放射性物质发生泄漏事件,本研究基于MASNUM(Laboratory of Marine Science and Numerical Modeling)海洋环流模式,建立了西北太平洋海洋放射性物质输运扩散模式,对事故释放的^(137)Cs在海洋中的输运和扩散过程进行了20a的模拟与预测。根据与观测资料的比较,验证了所建立的模式具备模拟放射性物质在海洋中的输运扩散过程的能力。结果显示:至2015年,^(137)Cs表层活度浓度已经扩散至整个中国海域,活度浓度值在0.01Bq/m^3左右;事故发生10a后,研究海域^(137)Cs表层活度浓度趋于均匀,为0.20~0.60Bq/m^3左右;20a后,^(137)Cs在海洋表层的活度浓度要小于0.15Bq/m^3。垂向扩散的结果显示:事故发生10a后,黄海海域^(137)Cs垂向分布较为均匀,东海东部陆架海域活度浓度高于西部海域,且上层海水中^(137)Cs活度浓度高于底层海水,南海北部海域^(137)Cs活度浓度高于南部海域,且略小于黄海和东海;至2030年,中国近海^(137)Cs的活度浓度的垂向分布趋于均匀,南海略高于黄海和东海;日本海^(137)Cs活度浓度主要集中在表层,最大活度浓度出现在2016年,约为0.20Bq/m^3;西北太平洋海域^(137)Cs活度浓度要高于其他4个海域;2030年以后,整个海域^(137)Cs活度浓度在水平和垂向分布均趋于均匀,均小于0.15Bq/m^3。
文摘The Lagrangian Particle Dispersion Model (LPDM) in the 594 km× 594 km model domain with the horizontal grid scale of 3 km×3 km centered at a power plant and the Eulerian Transport Model (ETM) modified from the Asian Dust Aerosol Model 2 (ADAM2) in the domain of 70° LAT × 140° LON with the horizontal grid scale of 27 km×27 km have been developed. These models have been implemented to simulate the concentration and deposition of radionuclides (137Cs and 131I) released from the accident of the Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear power plant. It is found that both models are able to simulate quite reasonably the observed concentrations of 137Cs and 131I near the power plant. However, the LPDM model is more useful for the estimation of concentration near the power plant site in details whereas the ETM model is good for the long-range transport processes of the radionuclide plume. The estimated maximum mean surface concentration, column integrated mean concentration and the total deposition (wet+dry) by LPDM for the period from 12 March to 30 April 2011 are, respectively found to be 2.975 × 102 Bq m-3, 3.7 × 107 Bq m-2, and 1.78 × 1014 Bq m-2 for 137Cs and 1.96 × 104 Bq m-3, 2.24 × 109 Bq m-2 and 5.96 × 1014 Bq m-2 for 131I. The radionuclide plumes released from the accident power plant are found to spread wide regions not only the whole model domain of downwind regions but the upwind regions of Russia, Mongolia, Korea, eastern China, Philippines and Vietnam within the analysis period.
