Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) sl...Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) slopes is studied in this paper. The slope safety factor is computed by combining the kinematic approach of limit analysis using a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism with the pseudo-dynamic approach. The variability of input parameters, including six pseudo-dynamic parameters and two soil shear strength parameters, are taken into account by means of Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) method. The influences of pseudo-dynamic input variables on the computed failure probabilities are investigated and discussed. It is shown that the obtained failure probabilities increase with the pseudo-dynamic input variables and the pseudo-dynamic approach gives more conservative failure probability estimates compared with the pseudo-static approach.展开更多
In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of p...In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.展开更多
For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was...For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.展开更多
The Nampo dike, which is located at the west coast of Korea, was destroyed by wave overtopping during the storms on 30 August and 17 September in 1959. In this paper, is performed the probabilistic assessment of wave ...The Nampo dike, which is located at the west coast of Korea, was destroyed by wave overtopping during the storms on 30 August and 17 September in 1959. In this paper, is performed the probabilistic assessment of wave overtopping of Nampo dike by use of Owen model, Van der Meer ＆ Janssen model and Hedges ＆ Reis model for wave overtopping of seawall. Based on the available tidal and wave data for storm surges in 1989, the risk assessment of wave overtopping of the Nampo dike has been carried out by both Level Ⅱ and Level Ⅲ reliability methods. The calculated resuhs show the general agreement of failure probability between the two methods. By utilizing the rehabilitated cross section of Nampo dike, the failure probability of wave overtopping for the Nampo dike after rehabilitation will be rapidly reduced to that of initial design at crest level of 9.0 m with the improved slope from 1 ： 2 to 1 ： 4 at seaside. Since the sea level may only rise 1.0 m in the next few decades, the failure probability of Nampo dike will be still in the safe range.展开更多
We extend the traditional nonnegative reward testing with negative rewards.In this new testing framework,may preorder and must preorder are the inverse of each other.More surprisingly,it turns out that the real reward...We extend the traditional nonnegative reward testing with negative rewards.In this new testing framework,may preorder and must preorder are the inverse of each other.More surprisingly,it turns out that the real reward must testing is no more powerful than the nonnegative reward testing,at least for finite processes. In order to prove that result,we exploit an important property of failure simulation about the inclusion of the testing outcomes between two related processes.展开更多
To perform structure buckling and reliability analysis on supercavitating vehicles with high velocity in the submarine,supercavitating vehicles were simplified as variable cross section beam firstly.Then structural bu...To perform structure buckling and reliability analysis on supercavitating vehicles with high velocity in the submarine,supercavitating vehicles were simplified as variable cross section beam firstly.Then structural buckling analysis of supercavitating vehicles with or without engine thrust was conducted,and the structural buckling safety margin equation of supercavitating vehicles was established.The indefinite information was described by interval set and the structure reliability analysis was performed by using non-probabilistic reliability method.Considering interval variables as random variables which satisfy uniform distribution,the Monte-Carlo method was used to calculate the non-probabilistic failure degree.Numerical examples of supercavitating vehicles were presented.Under different ratios of base diameter to cavitator diameter,the change tendency of non-probabilistic failure degree of structural buckling of supercavitating vehicles with or without engine thrust was studied along with the variety of speed.展开更多
A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic ...A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.展开更多
文摘Probabilistic analysis is a rational approach for engineering design because it provides more insight than traditional deterministic analysis. Probabilistic evaluation on seismic stability of three dimensional (3D) slopes is studied in this paper. The slope safety factor is computed by combining the kinematic approach of limit analysis using a three-dimensional rotational failure mechanism with the pseudo-dynamic approach. The variability of input parameters, including six pseudo-dynamic parameters and two soil shear strength parameters, are taken into account by means of Monte-Carlo Simulations (MCS) method. The influences of pseudo-dynamic input variables on the computed failure probabilities are investigated and discussed. It is shown that the obtained failure probabilities increase with the pseudo-dynamic input variables and the pseudo-dynamic approach gives more conservative failure probability estimates compared with the pseudo-static approach.
文摘In this article,mathematical modeling for the evaluation of reliability is studied using two methods.One of the methods,is developed based on possibility theory.The performance of the reliability of the system is of prime concern.In view of this,the outcomes for the failure are required to evaluate with utmost care.In possibility theory,the reliability information data determined from decision-making experts are subjective.The samemethod is also related to the survival possibilities as against the survival probabilities.The other method is the one that is developed using the concept of approximation of closed interval including the piecewise quadratic fuzzy numbers.In this method,a decision-making expert is not sure of his/her estimates of the reliability parameters.Numerical experiments are performed to illustrate the efficiency of the suggested methods in this research.In the end,the paper is concluded with some future research directions to be explored for the proposed approach.
基金supported by the Defense Industrial Technology Development Program (Grant Nos.JCKY2018601B001,JCKY2019209C004,and JCKY2019205A006)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.11432002,11772026,and 12002015)+1 种基金the Aeronautical Science Foundation of China (Grant No.20182951014)the Beijing Municipal Science and Technology Commission (Grant No.Z191100004619006).
基金Projects (51275138,51605016) supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject (12531109) supported by the Science Foundation of Heilongjiang Provincial Department of Education,ChinaProject supported by Research Start-up Funding of Fudan University,China
文摘For unacceptable computational efficiency and accuracy on the probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes,this paper proposed multi-extremum response surface method(MERSM).MERSM model was established based on quadratic polynomial function by taking extremum response surface model as the sub-model of multi-response surface method.The dynamic probabilistic analysis of an aeroengine turbine blisk with two components,and their reliability of deformation and stress failures was obtained,based on thermal-structural coupling technique,by considering the nonlinearity of material parameters and the transients of gas flow,gas temperature and rotational speed.The results show that the comprehensive reliability of structure is 0.9904 when the allowable deformations and stresses of blade and disk are 4.78×10–3 m and 1.41×109 Pa,and 1.64×10–3 m and 1.04×109 Pa,respectively.Besides,gas temperature and rotating speed severely influence the comprehensive reliability of system.Through the comparison of methods,it is shown that the MERSM holds higher computational precision and speed in the probabilistic analysis of turbine blisk,and MERSM computational precision satisfies the requirement of engineering design.The efforts of this study address the difficulties on transients and multiple models coupling for the dynamic probabilistic analysis of multi-component system with multi-failure modes.
基金This project was financially supported by the BK21 Division for U-CITY Construction,Sungkyunkwan University,Korea
文摘The Nampo dike, which is located at the west coast of Korea, was destroyed by wave overtopping during the storms on 30 August and 17 September in 1959. In this paper, is performed the probabilistic assessment of wave overtopping of Nampo dike by use of Owen model, Van der Meer ＆ Janssen model and Hedges ＆ Reis model for wave overtopping of seawall. Based on the available tidal and wave data for storm surges in 1989, the risk assessment of wave overtopping of the Nampo dike has been carried out by both Level Ⅱ and Level Ⅲ reliability methods. The calculated resuhs show the general agreement of failure probability between the two methods. By utilizing the rehabilitated cross section of Nampo dike, the failure probability of wave overtopping for the Nampo dike after rehabilitation will be rapidly reduced to that of initial design at crest level of 9.0 m with the improved slope from 1 ： 2 to 1 ： 4 at seaside. Since the sea level may only rise 1.0 m in the next few decades, the failure probability of Nampo dike will be still in the safe range.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.61033002)
文摘We extend the traditional nonnegative reward testing with negative rewards.In this new testing framework,may preorder and must preorder are the inverse of each other.More surprisingly,it turns out that the real reward must testing is no more powerful than the nonnegative reward testing,at least for finite processes. In order to prove that result,we exploit an important property of failure simulation about the inclusion of the testing outcomes between two related processes.
基金Sponsored by the National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(Grant No. 2006AA04Z410)
文摘To perform structure buckling and reliability analysis on supercavitating vehicles with high velocity in the submarine,supercavitating vehicles were simplified as variable cross section beam firstly.Then structural buckling analysis of supercavitating vehicles with or without engine thrust was conducted,and the structural buckling safety margin equation of supercavitating vehicles was established.The indefinite information was described by interval set and the structure reliability analysis was performed by using non-probabilistic reliability method.Considering interval variables as random variables which satisfy uniform distribution,the Monte-Carlo method was used to calculate the non-probabilistic failure degree.Numerical examples of supercavitating vehicles were presented.Under different ratios of base diameter to cavitator diameter,the change tendency of non-probabilistic failure degree of structural buckling of supercavitating vehicles with or without engine thrust was studied along with the variety of speed.
文摘A risk assessment method for marine configuration based on Fuzzy Probability Influence Diagram （FPID） and Failure Mode and Effect Analysis （FMEA） is established in this paper. Considering the fuzzy characteristic of the two key inputs such as event happening probability and relation probability, the method induces fuzzy probability into the PID risk assessment for marine configuration, where defuzzification is performed using the centroid method to determine the risk at a given grade of a probabilistic item. FMEA as a traditional qualitative analysis method is used to determine the effect factor structure. An application of the presented method for the offshore jacket platform is implemented. The method can be widely applicable although only offshore platform is analyzed here.
