The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm,...The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm, the power-law process was used to simulate the wind speeds at a hub height of 60 m. The Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were chosen to express the wind speeds at two different heights. The parameters in the model were estimated via the least square(LS) method and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method, respectively. An adjusted MLE approach was also presented for parameter estimation. The main indices of wind energy characteristics were calculated based on observational wind speed data. A case study based on the data of Hexi area, Gansu Province of China was given. The results show that MLE method generally outperforms LS method for parameter estimation, and Weibull distribution is more appropriate to describe the wind speed at the hub height.展开更多
Fault attributes generally display a consistent power–law-scaling relationship.Based on new 3 D seismic data,however,we found some exceptional fault attribute relationships of lengths(L)–throw(T)(vertical component ...Fault attributes generally display a consistent power–law-scaling relationship.Based on new 3 D seismic data,however,we found some exceptional fault attribute relationships of lengths(L)–throw(T)(vertical component of displacement),overlap zone length(Lo)–width(Wo)from a strike-slip fault system of the Ordovician carbonates in the Tarim Basin.The L–T relationship shows two linear segments with breakup at^40 km in fault length.This presents an exceptional throw increase in the second stage,which is attributed to a localization of vertical displacement and deformation in overlapping zones other than the different fault scales in a mature fault zone.The Lo–Wo relationship in the overlapping zones shows multiply stepped-shape patterns,suggesting multiple fault differential growth and periodic increase in fault size.Therefore,we propose a new alternative growth model of fault attributes in strike-slip fault zones,in which the overlapping zones accumulated localized displacement and deformation in the intracratonic strike-slip fault zone.展开更多
In this paper,the acceleratingly growing network model with intermittent processes is proposed.In thegrowing network,there exist both accelerating and intermittent processes.The network is grown from the number ofnode...In this paper,the acceleratingly growing network model with intermittent processes is proposed.In thegrowing network,there exist both accelerating and intermittent processes.The network is grown from the number ofnodes m<sub>o</sub> and the number of links added with each new node is a nonlinearly increasing function m+aN<sup>β</sup>（t）f（t）,whereN（t） is the number of nodes present at time t.f（t） is the periodic and bistable function with period T,whose values are1 and 0 indicating accelerating and intermittent processes,respectively.Here we denote the ratio r of acceleration timeto whole one.We study the degree distribution p（k） of the model,focusing on the dependence of p（k） on the networkparameters τ,T,m,α,N,and β.It is found that there exists a phase transition point,k<sub>c</sub> such that if k【k<sub>c</sub>,then p（k）obeys a power-law distribution with exponent -γ<sub>1</sub>,while if k】k<sub>c</sub>,then p（k） exhibits a power-law distribution withexponent-γ<sub>2</sub>.Moreover,the exponents γ<sub>1</sub> and γ<sub>2</sub> are independent of τ,T,m,a,and N,while they depend only onthe parameter β.More interesting,the phase transition point is described by k<sub>c</sub>=aN<sup>β</sup>,which is equal to the value atwhich p（k） is maximum in GM model.展开更多
High quality, concentrated sugar syrup crystal is produced in a critical step in cane sugar production： the clarification process. It is characterized by two variables： the color of the produced sugar and its clarit...High quality, concentrated sugar syrup crystal is produced in a critical step in cane sugar production： the clarification process. It is characterized by two variables： the color of the produced sugar and its clarity degree. We show that the temporal variations of these variables follow power-law distributions and can be well modeled by multiplicative cascade multifractal processes. These interesting properties suggest that the degradation in color and clarity degree has a systemwide cause. In particular, the cascade multifractal model suggests that the degradation in color and clarity degree can be equivalently accounted for by the initial ＂impurities＂ in the sugarcane. Hence, more effective cleaning of the sugarcane before the clarification stage may lead to substantial improvement in the effect of clarification.展开更多
基于DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)信息准则、BGR(Brooks-Gelman-Rubin)诊断原理、蒙特卡洛仿真误差及模型参数和可靠性指标后验估计的区间长度,提出了数控机床贝叶斯可靠性模型的综合评价方法.给出了不同先验下用于Gibbs抽样的...基于DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)信息准则、BGR(Brooks-Gelman-Rubin)诊断原理、蒙特卡洛仿真误差及模型参数和可靠性指标后验估计的区间长度,提出了数控机床贝叶斯可靠性模型的综合评价方法.给出了不同先验下用于Gibbs抽样的幂律过程模型参数的后验分布,并利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法获得了模型参数和可靠性指标的贝叶斯点估计和区间估计.通过2个工程实例进行验证,结果表明,幂律过程模型各项评价指标均优于Weibull分布模型,适用于小样本故障数据数控机床的可靠性评估.展开更多
在多种合理的无信息先验分布下,基于Markov Chain Monte Carlo方法,提出了一种简单且易于抽样的幂律过程的Bayesian分析方法.所提方法将失效、时间截尾数据统一分析,能快捷地获取幂律过程模型参数的Markov Chain Monte Carlo样本,利用...在多种合理的无信息先验分布下,基于Markov Chain Monte Carlo方法,提出了一种简单且易于抽样的幂律过程的Bayesian分析方法.所提方法将失效、时间截尾数据统一分析,能快捷地获取幂律过程模型参数的Markov Chain Monte Carlo样本,利用该样本不但能直接给出模型参数函数的后验分布,还能给出单样预测和双样预测的分析.一个经典工程数值算例说明了所提方法的可行性、合理性与有效性.该方法具有一定的优越性,可为小子样可靠性增长分析提供一种值得参考的方法.展开更多
基金Project(51165019)supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaProject(1308RJYA018)supported by Gansu Provincial Natural Science Fund,ChinaProject(2013-4-110)supported by Lanzhou Technology Development Program,China
文摘The probability distributions of wind speeds and the availability of wind turbines were investigated by considering the vertical wind shear. Based on the wind speed data at the standard height observed at a wind farm, the power-law process was used to simulate the wind speeds at a hub height of 60 m. The Weibull and Rayleigh distributions were chosen to express the wind speeds at two different heights. The parameters in the model were estimated via the least square(LS) method and the maximum likelihood estimation(MLE) method, respectively. An adjusted MLE approach was also presented for parameter estimation. The main indices of wind energy characteristics were calculated based on observational wind speed data. A case study based on the data of Hexi area, Gansu Province of China was given. The results show that MLE method generally outperforms LS method for parameter estimation, and Weibull distribution is more appropriate to describe the wind speed at the hub height.
基金partly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91955204)Science and Technology Cooperation Project of the CNPC-SWPU Innovation Alliance(Grant No.2020CX010300)。
文摘Fault attributes generally display a consistent power–law-scaling relationship.Based on new 3 D seismic data,however,we found some exceptional fault attribute relationships of lengths(L)–throw(T)(vertical component of displacement),overlap zone length(Lo)–width(Wo)from a strike-slip fault system of the Ordovician carbonates in the Tarim Basin.The L–T relationship shows two linear segments with breakup at^40 km in fault length.This presents an exceptional throw increase in the second stage,which is attributed to a localization of vertical displacement and deformation in overlapping zones other than the different fault scales in a mature fault zone.The Lo–Wo relationship in the overlapping zones shows multiply stepped-shape patterns,suggesting multiple fault differential growth and periodic increase in fault size.Therefore,we propose a new alternative growth model of fault attributes in strike-slip fault zones,in which the overlapping zones accumulated localized displacement and deformation in the intracratonic strike-slip fault zone.
基金The project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China under Grant Nos.70571017 and 10247005the Innovation Project of Guangxi Graduate Education under Grant No.2006106020809M36
文摘In this paper,the acceleratingly growing network model with intermittent processes is proposed.In thegrowing network,there exist both accelerating and intermittent processes.The network is grown from the number ofnodes m<sub>o</sub> and the number of links added with each new node is a nonlinearly increasing function m+aN<sup>β</sup>（t）f（t）,whereN（t） is the number of nodes present at time t.f（t） is the periodic and bistable function with period T,whose values are1 and 0 indicating accelerating and intermittent processes,respectively.Here we denote the ratio r of acceleration timeto whole one.We study the degree distribution p（k） of the model,focusing on the dependence of p（k） on the networkparameters τ,T,m,α,N,and β.It is found that there exists a phase transition point,k<sub>c</sub> such that if k【k<sub>c</sub>,then p（k）obeys a power-law distribution with exponent -γ<sub>1</sub>,while if k】k<sub>c</sub>,then p（k） exhibits a power-law distribution withexponent-γ<sub>2</sub>.Moreover,the exponents γ<sub>1</sub> and γ<sub>2</sub> are independent of τ,T,m,a,and N,while they depend only onthe parameter β.More interesting,the phase transition point is described by k<sub>c</sub>=aN<sup>β</sup>,which is equal to the value atwhich p（k） is maximum in GM model.
文摘High quality, concentrated sugar syrup crystal is produced in a critical step in cane sugar production： the clarification process. It is characterized by two variables： the color of the produced sugar and its clarity degree. We show that the temporal variations of these variables follow power-law distributions and can be well modeled by multiplicative cascade multifractal processes. These interesting properties suggest that the degradation in color and clarity degree has a systemwide cause. In particular, the cascade multifractal model suggests that the degradation in color and clarity degree can be equivalently accounted for by the initial ＂impurities＂ in the sugarcane. Hence, more effective cleaning of the sugarcane before the clarification stage may lead to substantial improvement in the effect of clarification.
文摘基于DIC(Deviance Information Criterion)信息准则、BGR(Brooks-Gelman-Rubin)诊断原理、蒙特卡洛仿真误差及模型参数和可靠性指标后验估计的区间长度,提出了数控机床贝叶斯可靠性模型的综合评价方法.给出了不同先验下用于Gibbs抽样的幂律过程模型参数的后验分布,并利用马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛法获得了模型参数和可靠性指标的贝叶斯点估计和区间估计.通过2个工程实例进行验证,结果表明,幂律过程模型各项评价指标均优于Weibull分布模型,适用于小样本故障数据数控机床的可靠性评估.
文摘在多种合理的无信息先验分布下,基于Markov Chain Monte Carlo方法,提出了一种简单且易于抽样的幂律过程的Bayesian分析方法.所提方法将失效、时间截尾数据统一分析,能快捷地获取幂律过程模型参数的Markov Chain Monte Carlo样本,利用该样本不但能直接给出模型参数函数的后验分布,还能给出单样预测和双样预测的分析.一个经典工程数值算例说明了所提方法的可行性、合理性与有效性.该方法具有一定的优越性,可为小子样可靠性增长分析提供一种值得参考的方法.
