In India,large-scale climatic oscillations have strong influences on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall(ISMR),which plays a crucial role in India’s agricultural production and economic growth.However,there are limite...In India,large-scale climatic oscillations have strong influences on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall(ISMR),which plays a crucial role in India’s agricultural production and economic growth.However,there are limited studies in India that explore the influences of decadal and multidecadal oscillations on the ISMR and associated El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Therefore,in this study we carried out a comprehensive and detailed investigation to understand the influences of ENSO,Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)on ISMR across different regions in India.The statistical significance of ISMR associated with different phases(positive/warm and negative/cold)of ENSO,PDO,and AMO(individual analysis),and combined ENSO–AMO,and ENSO–PDO(coupled analysis)were analysed by using the nonparametric Wilcoxon Rank Sum(WRS)test.The individual analysis results indicate that in addition to the ENSO teleconnection,AMO and PDO significantly affect the spatial patterns of ISMR.Coupled analysis was performed to understand how the phase shift of PDO and AMO has modulated the rainfall during El Niño and La Niña phases.The results indicate that the La Niña associated with a positive PDO phase caused excessive precipitation of about 21%–150%in the peninsular,west–central,and hilly regions compared to the individual effect of ENSO/PDO/AMO on ISMR;similarly,the west–central,coastal,and northwest regions received 15%–56%of excessive rainfall.Moreover,during the El Niño combined with PDO positive(AMO positive),above-normal precipitation was observed in hilly,northeast,and coastal(hilly,northeast,west–central,and coastal)regions,opposite to the results obtained from the individual ENSO analysis.This study emphasizes the importance of accounting the decadal and multidecadal forcing when examining variations in the ISMR during different phases of ENSO events.展开更多
The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relat...The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.展开更多
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is a leading mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific.Skillful PDO prediction can be beneficial in many aspects because of its global and regional im...The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is a leading mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific.Skillful PDO prediction can be beneficial in many aspects because of its global and regional impacts.However,current climate models cannot provide satisfied decadal prediction of the PDO and related decadal variability of sea surface temperature.In this study,we propose a new approach,i.e.,the increment method,to predicting the PDO.A series of validations demonstrate that the increment method is effective in improving decadal prediction of PDO and it can well capture the phase change of PDO with high accuracy.The prediction processes include three steps.First,a five-year smoothing is performed;second,effective preceding predictors for PDO are selected,with all predictors and predictands in the form of a three-year decadal increment(DI);third,the prediction model is set up for PDO three-year decadal increment(DI_PDO),and PDO prediction can be obtained by adding the predicted DI_PDO to the observed PDO three years ago.This new method can also be applied for decadal climate prediction of other modes(e.g.,Atlantic multidecadal oscillation)and predictands(e.g.,sea surface temperature).展开更多
This paper briefly introduces the history of the study of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and explores the relationship between the PDO and sediment grain size from two typical sediment cores from the lower Chang...This paper briefly introduces the history of the study of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and explores the relationship between the PDO and sediment grain size from two typical sediment cores from the lower Changjiang(Yangtze River) and Huanghe(Yellow River) estuaries. It is found that the median grain sizes of both cores exhibit relatively high correlation with the PDO. This is because the PDO causes interdecadal variability of precipitation in the East Asia Monsoon region, thus changing the hydrodynamics in both the Changjiang and Huanghe catchments, eventually resulting in variation of sediment grain size. Our analysis also revealed that during different phases of the PDO, the sediment grain size of the Changjiang and Huanghe estuaries showed different variations in cold and warm PDO phases. This is related to movement of the precipitation center driven by the shift in different PDO phases. Moreover, we compared more high resolution geological proxies with the PDO, including stalagmites and tree rings, in East China over the past century. The results indicate that variations of studied geological proxies are generally well correlated with the PDO but have some differences. Finally, longer variations of sediment grain sizes in the Changjiang and Huanghe estuaries are compared with a reconstructed PDO over the last 200 years;sediment grain sizes were still correlated with the PDO, implying that sediment grain size may be used as a new proxy for studying the long-term behavior of the PDO. This result supports previous knowledge of the PDO impact on East China climate evolution and offers a new proxy for further PDO study. Our study will improve paleoenvironment reconstruction in East China on a decadal time scale and benefit future climatic predictions.展开更多
The tropical storm day(TSD)is a combined measure of genesis and lifespan.It reflects tropical cyclone(TC)overall activity,yet its variability has rarely been studied,especially globally.Here we show that the global to...The tropical storm day(TSD)is a combined measure of genesis and lifespan.It reflects tropical cyclone(TC)overall activity,yet its variability has rarely been studied,especially globally.Here we show that the global total TSDs exhibit pronounced interannual(3-6 years)and decadal(10 years)variations over the past five-to-six decades without a significant trend.The leading modes of the interannual and decadal variability of global TSD feature similar patterns in the western Pacific and Atlantic,but different patterns in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Indian Ocean.The interannual and decadal leading modes are primarily linked to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),respectively.The TSDs-ENSO relationship has been steady during the entire 55-year period,but the TSDs-PDO relationship has experienced a breakdown in the 1980 s.We find that the decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with the PDO sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific(PDO-E),while that in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean is associated with the PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific(PDO-W).However,the PDO-E and PDO-W SST anomalies are poorly coupled in the 1980 s,and this"destructive PDO"pattern results in a breakdown of the TSDs-PDO relationship.The results here have an important implication for seasonal to decadal predictions of global TSD.展开更多
Based on 467 pairs ofδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records and 8230 Th dates from a stalagmite(BF4)from Xiniu Cave,central China,we present a reconstruction of 9-yr resolution monsoon rainfall record for the past 4700 years.Ou...Based on 467 pairs ofδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records and 8230 Th dates from a stalagmite(BF4)from Xiniu Cave,central China,we present a reconstruction of 9-yr resolution monsoon rainfall record for the past 4700 years.Ourδ^(18)O record shows good coherence with East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)rainfall proxies from adjacent regions during the overlapping intervals,suggesting thatδ^(18)O signal in BF4 can be interpreted as a monsoon rainfall proxy.Theδ^(13) C variations are related to changes in local processes at the cave site,and regional rainfall and temperature changes.Based on theδ18 O record,a series of dry periods can be identified at 4500-4200,3500-3200,2800-2500,1900-1600,1400-1200,700-500,and 400-200 yr BP,while a series of wet periods can be identified at 4200-3600,2400-2200,3200-2800,1100-900,600-400,and 200-100 yr BP.Power spectrum analysis on ourδ^(18) O record reveals significant cycles at 470 and 80 yr,coinciding with the typical solar periodic variations.This result suggests that changes in solar activity play a dominant role in driving centennial-decadal monsoon rainfall variation in central China.Due to minor changes in solar irradiance(less than 1.5 W m^(-2))over the past 4700 years,our record was further compared to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)proxies,confirming that solar forcing on monsoon rainfall changes might be amplified by the ENSO and PDO variations.From 600 to 150 yr BP(the Little Ice Age,LIA),a positive shift of 2‰can be revealed in both theδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records,indicating a cold/dry climatic pattern.By comparing ourδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records with historical documents,we suggest that the climatic deteriorations between 450 and 250 yr BP may have caused serious social unrest at the end of the Ming Dynasty.展开更多
To understand the diversity of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)during recent decades,characteristics of westerly wind bursts(WWBs)during positive and nega...To understand the diversity of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)during recent decades,characteristics of westerly wind bursts(WWBs)during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed.It is shown that,during the ENSO developing period,the El Ni?o evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength,which contains most WWB characteristics,including the accumulated days,occurrence frequency,strength,and spatial range of WWBs.The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.展开更多
文摘In India,large-scale climatic oscillations have strong influences on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall(ISMR),which plays a crucial role in India’s agricultural production and economic growth.However,there are limited studies in India that explore the influences of decadal and multidecadal oscillations on the ISMR and associated El Niño–Southern Oscillation(ENSO).Therefore,in this study we carried out a comprehensive and detailed investigation to understand the influences of ENSO,Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO),and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation(AMO)on ISMR across different regions in India.The statistical significance of ISMR associated with different phases(positive/warm and negative/cold)of ENSO,PDO,and AMO(individual analysis),and combined ENSO–AMO,and ENSO–PDO(coupled analysis)were analysed by using the nonparametric Wilcoxon Rank Sum(WRS)test.The individual analysis results indicate that in addition to the ENSO teleconnection,AMO and PDO significantly affect the spatial patterns of ISMR.Coupled analysis was performed to understand how the phase shift of PDO and AMO has modulated the rainfall during El Niño and La Niña phases.The results indicate that the La Niña associated with a positive PDO phase caused excessive precipitation of about 21%–150%in the peninsular,west–central,and hilly regions compared to the individual effect of ENSO/PDO/AMO on ISMR;similarly,the west–central,coastal,and northwest regions received 15%–56%of excessive rainfall.Moreover,during the El Niño combined with PDO positive(AMO positive),above-normal precipitation was observed in hilly,northeast,and coastal(hilly,northeast,west–central,and coastal)regions,opposite to the results obtained from the individual ENSO analysis.This study emphasizes the importance of accounting the decadal and multidecadal forcing when examining variations in the ISMR during different phases of ENSO events.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)(No.41976027)。
文摘The subtropical North and South Pacific Meridional Modes(NPMM and SPMM)are well known precursors of El Niño-Southern Oscillation(ENSO).However,relationship between them is not constant.In the early 1980,the relationship experienced an interdecadal transition.Changes in this connection can be attributed mainly to the phase change of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO).During the positive phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline in the central Pacific is responsible for the stronger trade wind charging(TWC)mechanism,which leads to a stronger equatorial subsurface temperature evolution.This dynamic process strengthens the connection between NPMM and ENSO.Associated with the negative phase of PDO,a shallower thermocline over southeastern Pacific allows an enhanced wind-evaporation-SST(WES)feedback,strengthening the connection between SPMM and ENSO.Using 35 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6)models,we examined the NPMM/SPMM performance and its connection with ENSO in the historical runs.The great majority of CMIP6 models can reproduce the pattern of NPMM and SPMM well,but they reveal discrepant ENSO and NPMM/SPMM relationship.The intermodal uncertainty for the connection of NPMM-ENSO is due to different TWC mechanism.A stronger TWC mechanism will enhance NPMM forcing.For SPMM,few models can simulate a good relationship with ENSO.The intermodel spread in the relationship of SPMM and ENSO owing to SST bias in the southeastern Pacific,as WES feedback is stronger when the southeastern Pacific is warmer.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600703)Jiangsu Innovation&Entrepreneurship Team FundPriority Academic Program Development(PAPD)of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions.
文摘The Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)is a leading mode of decadal sea surface temperature variability in the North Pacific.Skillful PDO prediction can be beneficial in many aspects because of its global and regional impacts.However,current climate models cannot provide satisfied decadal prediction of the PDO and related decadal variability of sea surface temperature.In this study,we propose a new approach,i.e.,the increment method,to predicting the PDO.A series of validations demonstrate that the increment method is effective in improving decadal prediction of PDO and it can well capture the phase change of PDO with high accuracy.The prediction processes include three steps.First,a five-year smoothing is performed;second,effective preceding predictors for PDO are selected,with all predictors and predictands in the form of a three-year decadal increment(DI);third,the prediction model is set up for PDO three-year decadal increment(DI_PDO),and PDO prediction can be obtained by adding the predicted DI_PDO to the observed PDO three years ago.This new method can also be applied for decadal climate prediction of other modes(e.g.,Atlantic multidecadal oscillation)and predictands(e.g.,sea surface temperature).
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41676035)the National Programme on Global Change and Air-Sea Interaction(Grant No.GASIGEOGE-03)SITP10
文摘This paper briefly introduces the history of the study of the Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO) and explores the relationship between the PDO and sediment grain size from two typical sediment cores from the lower Changjiang(Yangtze River) and Huanghe(Yellow River) estuaries. It is found that the median grain sizes of both cores exhibit relatively high correlation with the PDO. This is because the PDO causes interdecadal variability of precipitation in the East Asia Monsoon region, thus changing the hydrodynamics in both the Changjiang and Huanghe catchments, eventually resulting in variation of sediment grain size. Our analysis also revealed that during different phases of the PDO, the sediment grain size of the Changjiang and Huanghe estuaries showed different variations in cold and warm PDO phases. This is related to movement of the precipitation center driven by the shift in different PDO phases. Moreover, we compared more high resolution geological proxies with the PDO, including stalagmites and tree rings, in East China over the past century. The results indicate that variations of studied geological proxies are generally well correlated with the PDO but have some differences. Finally, longer variations of sediment grain sizes in the Changjiang and Huanghe estuaries are compared with a reconstructed PDO over the last 200 years;sediment grain sizes were still correlated with the PDO, implying that sediment grain size may be used as a new proxy for studying the long-term behavior of the PDO. This result supports previous knowledge of the PDO impact on East China climate evolution and offers a new proxy for further PDO study. Our study will improve paleoenvironment reconstruction in East China on a decadal time scale and benefit future climatic predictions.
基金supported by the National Science Foundation(Climate Dynamics Division)Award#NSF 2025057the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.91437218)the High-Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science&Technology for their support of this work。
文摘The tropical storm day(TSD)is a combined measure of genesis and lifespan.It reflects tropical cyclone(TC)overall activity,yet its variability has rarely been studied,especially globally.Here we show that the global total TSDs exhibit pronounced interannual(3-6 years)and decadal(10 years)variations over the past five-to-six decades without a significant trend.The leading modes of the interannual and decadal variability of global TSD feature similar patterns in the western Pacific and Atlantic,but different patterns in the Eastern Pacific and the Southern Indian Ocean.The interannual and decadal leading modes are primarily linked to El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),respectively.The TSDs-ENSO relationship has been steady during the entire 55-year period,but the TSDs-PDO relationship has experienced a breakdown in the 1980 s.We find that the decadal variation of TSD in the Pacific is associated with the PDO sea surface temperature(SST)anomalies in the tropical eastern Pacific(PDO-E),while that in the Atlantic and the Indian Ocean is associated with the PDO SST anomalies in the western Pacific(PDO-W).However,the PDO-E and PDO-W SST anomalies are poorly coupled in the 1980 s,and this"destructive PDO"pattern results in a breakdown of the TSDs-PDO relationship.The results here have an important implication for seasonal to decadal predictions of global TSD.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42071105,41571102,41931178,41672164,and 41172314)U.S.Nature Science Foundation(1702816)+1 种基金Project Funded by the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions(164320H116)111 Program of China(D19002)。
文摘Based on 467 pairs ofδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records and 8230 Th dates from a stalagmite(BF4)from Xiniu Cave,central China,we present a reconstruction of 9-yr resolution monsoon rainfall record for the past 4700 years.Ourδ^(18)O record shows good coherence with East Asian summer monsoon(EASM)rainfall proxies from adjacent regions during the overlapping intervals,suggesting thatδ^(18)O signal in BF4 can be interpreted as a monsoon rainfall proxy.Theδ^(13) C variations are related to changes in local processes at the cave site,and regional rainfall and temperature changes.Based on theδ18 O record,a series of dry periods can be identified at 4500-4200,3500-3200,2800-2500,1900-1600,1400-1200,700-500,and 400-200 yr BP,while a series of wet periods can be identified at 4200-3600,2400-2200,3200-2800,1100-900,600-400,and 200-100 yr BP.Power spectrum analysis on ourδ^(18) O record reveals significant cycles at 470 and 80 yr,coinciding with the typical solar periodic variations.This result suggests that changes in solar activity play a dominant role in driving centennial-decadal monsoon rainfall variation in central China.Due to minor changes in solar irradiance(less than 1.5 W m^(-2))over the past 4700 years,our record was further compared to the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO)and Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO)proxies,confirming that solar forcing on monsoon rainfall changes might be amplified by the ENSO and PDO variations.From 600 to 150 yr BP(the Little Ice Age,LIA),a positive shift of 2‰can be revealed in both theδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records,indicating a cold/dry climatic pattern.By comparing ourδ^(18)O andδ^(13)C records with historical documents,we suggest that the climatic deteriorations between 450 and 250 yr BP may have caused serious social unrest at the end of the Ming Dynasty.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2016YFA0600602)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41776039)。
文摘To understand the diversity of the El Ni?o–Southern Oscillation(ENSO)under the background of Pacific decadal oscillation(PDO)during recent decades,characteristics of westerly wind bursts(WWBs)during positive and negative phases of the PDO were analyzed.It is shown that,during the ENSO developing period,the El Ni?o evolution may be affected by stronger or more frequent WWBs in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.The sustained effects of atmospheric dynamics on the equatorial ocean can be indicated by the accumulated WWB strength,which contains most WWB characteristics,including the accumulated days,occurrence frequency,strength,and spatial range of WWBs.The synoptic/climate systems that are directly related to WWBs show a wider spatial distribution in the positive PDO phase than in the negative PDO phase.
