The continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean has led to a record retreat of sea ice in the last decades.This retreat has increased the probability of the opening of the Arctic Passages in the near future.T...The continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean has led to a record retreat of sea ice in the last decades.This retreat has increased the probability of the opening of the Arctic Passages in the near future.The Northwest Passage(NWP)is the most direct shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans,producing notable economic benefits.Decadal variations of sea ice and its influencing factors from a high-resolution unstructured-grid finite-volume community ocean model were investigated along the NWP in 1988-2016,and the accessibility of the NWP was assessed under shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP245 and 585)and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation acces-sibility model in 2021-2050.Sea ice thickness has decreased with increasing seawater temperature and salinity,especially within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago(CAA)in 1988-2016,which has facilitated the opening of the NWP.Complete ship navigation is projected to be possible for polar class 6 ships in August-December in 2021-2025,after when it may extends to July under SSP585 in 2026-2030,while open water ships will not be able to pass through the NWP until September in mid-21st century.The navigability of the NWP is mainly affected by the ice within the CAA.For the accessibility of the Parry Channel,the west part is worse than that of the eastern part,especially in the Viscount-Melville Sound.展开更多
The navigation potential of the Arctic has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice under continuous warming.The comprehensive evaluation of Arctic accessibility for low ice-breaking ships(civil use)in the mid-centu...The navigation potential of the Arctic has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice under continuous warming.The comprehensive evaluation of Arctic accessibility for low ice-breaking ships(civil use)in the mid-century is important to support coordinated international decision-making.In this study,the hydrological conditions and navigation potential in key areas and crucial straits along the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)were assessed under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)using the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System.The results showed that the most critical areas for navigation in the mid-century(2046-2055)are the waters around the New Siberian Islands and within the Parry Channel.Arctic navigability improves from SSP1-2.6 to SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5,and the accessibility for PC7 ships under SSP2-4.5 is even better for OW ships under SSP5-8.5.The route on the north side of the New Siberian Islands is a relatively good choice within the NSR,and the southern route has a better navigation potential than the Parry Channel within the NWP.In addition,the accessibility of the Dmitri Laptev Strait is better than that of the Sannikov Strait at a monthly scale,although the latter has more navigable days.However,there is little difference in accessibility between the eastern and western parts of the Parry Channel.The best nav-igation potential through the above straits is in September for ordinary ships,and the optimal time window is delayed and extended for PC7 ships.The results can serve as references for policy-making and navigation planning in the Arctic.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42005075,41721091)the Frontier Science Key Project of CAS(QYZDY-SSW-DQC021)+1 种基金the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science(SKLCS-ZZ-2021)Foundation for Excellent Youth Scholars of Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources,Chinese Academy of Sciences(FEYS2019020).
文摘The continued warming of the Arctic atmosphere and ocean has led to a record retreat of sea ice in the last decades.This retreat has increased the probability of the opening of the Arctic Passages in the near future.The Northwest Passage(NWP)is the most direct shipping route between the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans,producing notable economic benefits.Decadal variations of sea ice and its influencing factors from a high-resolution unstructured-grid finite-volume community ocean model were investigated along the NWP in 1988-2016,and the accessibility of the NWP was assessed under shared socioeconomic pathways(SSP245 and 585)and two vessel classes with the Arctic transportation acces-sibility model in 2021-2050.Sea ice thickness has decreased with increasing seawater temperature and salinity,especially within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago(CAA)in 1988-2016,which has facilitated the opening of the NWP.Complete ship navigation is projected to be possible for polar class 6 ships in August-December in 2021-2025,after when it may extends to July under SSP585 in 2026-2030,while open water ships will not be able to pass through the NWP until September in mid-21st century.The navigability of the NWP is mainly affected by the ice within the CAA.For the accessibility of the Parry Channel,the west part is worse than that of the eastern part,especially in the Viscount-Melville Sound.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (42276261)the International Partnership Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (131B62KYSB20180003)+2 种基金the National Office for Philosophy and Social Sciences as part of the project titled Strategic Competition and Cooperation in the Arctic among China,Russia,and the United States from the Perspective of Sustainable Development (20BGJ045)Gansu Provincial Science and Technology Program (22ZD6FA005)the State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science (SKLCS-ZZ-2023).
文摘The navigation potential of the Arctic has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice under continuous warming.The comprehensive evaluation of Arctic accessibility for low ice-breaking ships(civil use)in the mid-century is important to support coordinated international decision-making.In this study,the hydrological conditions and navigation potential in key areas and crucial straits along the Northern Sea Route(NSR)and Northwest Passage(NWP)were assessed under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways(SSPs)using the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System.The results showed that the most critical areas for navigation in the mid-century(2046-2055)are the waters around the New Siberian Islands and within the Parry Channel.Arctic navigability improves from SSP1-2.6 to SSP2-4.5 to SSP5-8.5,and the accessibility for PC7 ships under SSP2-4.5 is even better for OW ships under SSP5-8.5.The route on the north side of the New Siberian Islands is a relatively good choice within the NSR,and the southern route has a better navigation potential than the Parry Channel within the NWP.In addition,the accessibility of the Dmitri Laptev Strait is better than that of the Sannikov Strait at a monthly scale,although the latter has more navigable days.However,there is little difference in accessibility between the eastern and western parts of the Parry Channel.The best nav-igation potential through the above straits is in September for ordinary ships,and the optimal time window is delayed and extended for PC7 ships.The results can serve as references for policy-making and navigation planning in the Arctic.
