Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary f...Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary factors in the variation of interest rates,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,when the exchange rate is determined by market forces.Results:Empirical analysis uses a dataset of nominal interest rates,money growth,income growth,changes in nominal exchange rate,and budget deficit.From the methodological point of view the paper involves vector autoregression model and Wald tests of Granger causality,followed by impulse response analysis while stationarity and the order of integration of the selected variables are confirmed involving the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron unit-root tests.Results:The paper confirms that both monetary and fiscal factors have significant effects on the variations of interest rates.Money growth triggers an increase in interest rates,which supports the Fisher equation view,while income growth has a negative impact.Budget deficit causes a rise in interest rates,but the role of the exchange rate is found to be almost insignificant,probably due to including exchange rate series that cover both the pegged and market-based regimes of exchange rates.The second part of the analysis,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,further establishes the positive impact of M2 money growth and income growth on interest rates.In this case,exchange rate depreciation causes an increase in interest rates.Conclusions:The significant role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations implies it would be possible to manage interest rates through a judiciary management of monetary and fiscal policies.展开更多
We use decomposition and regression to examine the reasons for the changes in nominal and real rates of return of China＇s foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2009. The results show that the US financial market...We use decomposition and regression to examine the reasons for the changes in nominal and real rates of return of China＇s foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2009. The results show that the US financial market risk premium is the most important determinant of changes in the nominal rate of return, while the US dollar exchange rate and the bulk commodity price are the two key determinants of changes in the real rate of return. From empirically based research, one may conclude that the loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve increases China＇s foreign exchange reserves＇ nominal rate of return but decreases the real rate of return and that the European debt crisis has an uncertain impact on China＇s foreign exchange reserves＇ nominal rate of return but may well raise the real rate of return.展开更多
Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchang...Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.展开更多
Business cycle dynamics are determined by relatively large volatilities in output,consumption,and investment,which leads to cyclical fluctuations in interest rates.Using the Markov switching model,we model the nominal...Business cycle dynamics are determined by relatively large volatilities in output,consumption,and investment,which leads to cyclical fluctuations in interest rates.Using the Markov switching model,we model the nominal interest rate movements to explain the volatility regime shifts in a set of selected emerging Asian economies.The estimated results provide significant evidence of regime-dependent means,variances,and probabilities in both stable and volatile regimes in selected countries,confirming the existence of two distinct regimes in nominal interest rate movements.In addition,the smoothed probability results of switching autoregressive model show that the model is capable of capturing the two regimes for the corresponding nominal interest rate behaviors.Besides,the results reveal that the stables regimes have higher durations than the volatile regimes.This study also shows the advantage of Markov switching models over conventional regression models,allowing the identification of different regimes for the cyclical behavior of interest rates.展开更多
文摘Background:This paper examines the role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations in Sri Lanka under its deregulated regime of interest rates.In addition the paper also examines the role of monetary factors in the variation of interest rates,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,when the exchange rate is determined by market forces.Results:Empirical analysis uses a dataset of nominal interest rates,money growth,income growth,changes in nominal exchange rate,and budget deficit.From the methodological point of view the paper involves vector autoregression model and Wald tests of Granger causality,followed by impulse response analysis while stationarity and the order of integration of the selected variables are confirmed involving the augmented Dickey-Fuller and the Phillips-Perron unit-root tests.Results:The paper confirms that both monetary and fiscal factors have significant effects on the variations of interest rates.Money growth triggers an increase in interest rates,which supports the Fisher equation view,while income growth has a negative impact.Budget deficit causes a rise in interest rates,but the role of the exchange rate is found to be almost insignificant,probably due to including exchange rate series that cover both the pegged and market-based regimes of exchange rates.The second part of the analysis,using a quarterly dataset for the post-global recession period,further establishes the positive impact of M2 money growth and income growth on interest rates.In this case,exchange rate depreciation causes an increase in interest rates.Conclusions:The significant role of monetary and fiscal factors in interest rate variations implies it would be possible to manage interest rates through a judiciary management of monetary and fiscal policies.
基金part of the key program of the 2011"Strategic Studies on the Diversification of China’s Foreign Exchange Reserves"of the Chinese Academy of Social SciencesCentral Foreign Exchange Business Center for its support
文摘We use decomposition and regression to examine the reasons for the changes in nominal and real rates of return of China＇s foreign exchange reserves between 2002 and 2009. The results show that the US financial market risk premium is the most important determinant of changes in the nominal rate of return, while the US dollar exchange rate and the bulk commodity price are the two key determinants of changes in the real rate of return. From empirically based research, one may conclude that the loose monetary policy of the US Federal Reserve increases China＇s foreign exchange reserves＇ nominal rate of return but decreases the real rate of return and that the European debt crisis has an uncertain impact on China＇s foreign exchange reserves＇ nominal rate of return but may well raise the real rate of return.
文摘Australian dollar （AUD） maintains a fluctuant increase for long period, but in recent two years, this currency represents an anomalistic change. In order to forecast the trend of AUD, this essay examines the exchange rate of AUD in then years from March of 2000 to March of 2010, and argues the factors which create these trend changes. By means of secondary research and graphs analysis, the relevant evidence and argument was selected into four terms below： relative raw materials prices changes, relative domestic price level and Import-Expert changes, relative interest rate changes, and other factors. The examples based on the theoretics, graphs, statistics and experts＇ opinions.
文摘Business cycle dynamics are determined by relatively large volatilities in output,consumption,and investment,which leads to cyclical fluctuations in interest rates.Using the Markov switching model,we model the nominal interest rate movements to explain the volatility regime shifts in a set of selected emerging Asian economies.The estimated results provide significant evidence of regime-dependent means,variances,and probabilities in both stable and volatile regimes in selected countries,confirming the existence of two distinct regimes in nominal interest rate movements.In addition,the smoothed probability results of switching autoregressive model show that the model is capable of capturing the two regimes for the corresponding nominal interest rate behaviors.Besides,the results reveal that the stables regimes have higher durations than the volatile regimes.This study also shows the advantage of Markov switching models over conventional regression models,allowing the identification of different regimes for the cyclical behavior of interest rates.
