China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in Chi...China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China＇s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its ＂one-child policy＂ gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environ- mental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial dis- tribution of China＇s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results sug- gested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population d展开更多
基金Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.71433008 Key Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, No.KZZD-EW-06-04+2 种基金 National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41271174 National Key Technology R＆D Program, No.2012BAI32B06 Beijing Planning of Philosophy and Social Science, No. 13CSC011
文摘China has been experiencing an unprecedented urbanization process. In 2011, China＇s urban population reached 691 million with an urbanization rate of 51.27%. Urbaniza- tion level is expected to increase to 70% in China in 2030, reflecting the projection that nearly 300 million people would migrate from rural areas to urban areas over this period. At the same time, the total fertility rate of China＇s population is declining due to the combined effect of economic growth, environmental carrying capacity, and modern social consciousness. The Chinese government has loosened its ＂one-child policy＂ gradually by allowing childbearing couples to have the second child as long as either of them is from a one-child family. In such rapidly developing country, the natural growth and spatial migration will consistently reshape spatial pattern of population. An accurate prediction of the future spatial pattern of population and its evolution trend are critical to key policy-making processes and spatial planning in China including urbanization, land use development, ecological conservation and environ- mental protection. In this paper, a top-down method is developed to project the spatial dis- tribution of China＇s future population with considerations of both natural population growth at provincial level and the provincial migration from 2010 to 2050. Building on this, the spatial pattern and evolution trend of Chinese provincial population are analyzed. The results sug- gested that the overall spatial pattern of Chinese population will be unlikely changed in next four decades, with the east area having the highest population density and followed by central area, northeast and west area. Four provinces in the east, Shanghai, Beijing, Tianjin and Jiangsu, will remain the top in terms of population density in China, and Xinjiang, Qinghai and Tibet will continue to have the lowest density of population. We introduced an index system to classify the Chinese provinces into three categories in terms of provincial population d
