本文提出一种月尺度西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数(Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency,WNPTCF)预测的新方法。该方法利用全球次表层海温(Subsurface Sea Temperature Anomaly,SubSSTA)和中国气象局国家气候中心发布的130...本文提出一种月尺度西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数(Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency,WNPTCF)预测的新方法。该方法利用全球次表层海温(Subsurface Sea Temperature Anomaly,SubSSTA)和中国气象局国家气候中心发布的130项监测指数,构建了既考虑热力强迫因子、又考虑大气动力因子,既考虑同期海洋强迫,又考虑前期海洋和大气影响的集成预测模型。利用该预测模型对2011—2020年6—10月逐月WNPTCF进行独立样本检验预测,准确率达70%以上,说明该预测模型对WNPTCF的逐月演变预测的效果良好。该预测模型对ENSO信号较强年份的WNPTCF预测效果要好于ENSO信号不强的年份,原因在于在ENSO信号不强的年份,SubSSTA可预报性较低,非线性变率大,海洋对WNPTC的强迫作用弱。展开更多
Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale ...Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale anomaly takes place which is of remarkable seasonality and interannual variability.Analysis also shows that for the same seasonal external forcing the model atmosphere can exhibit two climatic states,similar in the departure pattern but opposite in sign, indicating that the anomaly is but the manifestation of the adverse states, which supports the theory of multi-equilibria proposed by Charney and Devore(1979) once again.Finally, the source for the low-frequency oscillation of the global atmosphere is found to be the convective heat source / sink inside the tropical atmosphere as discussed before in our study.Therefore, the key approach to the exploration of atmospheric steady low-frequency oscillation and the associated climatic effect lies in the examination of the distribution of convective heat sources / sinks and the variation in the tropical atmosphere.展开更多
文摘本文提出一种月尺度西北太平洋热带气旋生成频数(Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Frequency,WNPTCF)预测的新方法。该方法利用全球次表层海温(Subsurface Sea Temperature Anomaly,SubSSTA)和中国气象局国家气候中心发布的130项监测指数,构建了既考虑热力强迫因子、又考虑大气动力因子,既考虑同期海洋强迫,又考虑前期海洋和大气影响的集成预测模型。利用该预测模型对2011—2020年6—10月逐月WNPTCF进行独立样本检验预测,准确率达70%以上,说明该预测模型对WNPTCF的逐月演变预测的效果良好。该预测模型对ENSO信号较强年份的WNPTCF预测效果要好于ENSO信号不强的年份,原因在于在ENSO信号不强的年份,SubSSTA可预报性较低,非线性变率大,海洋对WNPTC的强迫作用弱。
文摘Analysis is done of five-year low-pass filtered data by a five-layer low-order global spectral model, indicating that although any non-seasonal external forcing is not considered in the model atmosphere,monthly-scale anomaly takes place which is of remarkable seasonality and interannual variability.Analysis also shows that for the same seasonal external forcing the model atmosphere can exhibit two climatic states,similar in the departure pattern but opposite in sign, indicating that the anomaly is but the manifestation of the adverse states, which supports the theory of multi-equilibria proposed by Charney and Devore(1979) once again.Finally, the source for the low-frequency oscillation of the global atmosphere is found to be the convective heat source / sink inside the tropical atmosphere as discussed before in our study.Therefore, the key approach to the exploration of atmospheric steady low-frequency oscillation and the associated climatic effect lies in the examination of the distribution of convective heat sources / sinks and the variation in the tropical atmosphere.
