Based on the field observations on Qiyi Glacier during the warm season of 2007,using a digital elevation model(DEM,15 m resolution),we developed a distributed surface energy-and mass-balance model with an hourly resol...Based on the field observations on Qiyi Glacier during the warm season of 2007,using a digital elevation model(DEM,15 m resolution),we developed a distributed surface energy-and mass-balance model with an hourly resolution.The model described the effect of topography on shortwave solar radiation,and used a new parameterization for glacier albedo.The model was applied to Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain,China,for the period 20:00 30 June to 12:00 10 October 2007,to simulate the firn-line changes,the temporal and spatial variations of mass balance,and the glacial meltwater runoff.The results indicated that the patterns of altitudinal profile of glacier mass-balance were affected mainly by the altitudinal profile of albedo,and the status of the glacier mass balance was influenced directly by the values of albedo.The parameter sensitivity test showed that the model was sensitive to the air temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient,and also sensitive to the threshold temperature for solid/liquid precipitation.Furthermore,the climate sensitivity test showed that the mass balance was more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation,and the response of mass balance to air temperature change was nonlinear while the response to precipitation change linearly.The negative mass balance trend of the glacier can not be reversed when precipitation increases by 20%and meanwhile air temperature rises by 1°C.展开更多
Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources...Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin （CRB）, a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT）. The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961-1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models （GCMs） in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under three radiative forcing scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5）. In this study, the period 1966-1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identi- fied in the average annual runoff in glacier （-26.6% to -1.0%）, snow （-21.4% to ＋1.1%） and streamflow （-27.7% to -6.6%） for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection.展开更多
Alpine glaciers are the natural solid reservoirs that releases amount of meltwater to supply streams every year. Glacier meltwater, adjuSting the yearly variation of stream runoff and making it trend to wards stablen...Alpine glaciers are the natural solid reservoirs that releases amount of meltwater to supply streams every year. Glacier meltwater, adjuSting the yearly variation of stream runoff and making it trend to wards stableness, becomes the relible water resourc展开更多
冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡...冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10^(8)m^(3),融水增加速率为0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。展开更多
基金supported by the Innovation Research Project of Chinese Academy of Sciences(KZXC2-YW- 310)the National Basic Research Program of China(2005CB422003)+2 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China for Distinguished Young Scholar(40525001),the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40901041,40903056 and 40871038)National Special Basic Research Fund for the Glacier Resources and Glacier Change Survey(2006FY-1102007)the Western Light Talent Culture Project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(290928601)
文摘Based on the field observations on Qiyi Glacier during the warm season of 2007,using a digital elevation model(DEM,15 m resolution),we developed a distributed surface energy-and mass-balance model with an hourly resolution.The model described the effect of topography on shortwave solar radiation,and used a new parameterization for glacier albedo.The model was applied to Qiyi Glacier in the Qilian Mountain,China,for the period 20:00 30 June to 12:00 10 October 2007,to simulate the firn-line changes,the temporal and spatial variations of mass balance,and the glacial meltwater runoff.The results indicated that the patterns of altitudinal profile of glacier mass-balance were affected mainly by the altitudinal profile of albedo,and the status of the glacier mass balance was influenced directly by the values of albedo.The parameter sensitivity test showed that the model was sensitive to the air temperature lapse rate and precipitation gradient,and also sensitive to the threshold temperature for solid/liquid precipitation.Furthermore,the climate sensitivity test showed that the mass balance was more sensitive to air temperature than precipitation,and the response of mass balance to air temperature change was nonlinear while the response to precipitation change linearly.The negative mass balance trend of the glacier can not be reversed when precipitation increases by 20%and meanwhile air temperature rises by 1°C.
基金funded by International Science & Technology Cooperation Program of China (2010DFA92720)the Project of the National Eleventh-Five Year Research Program of China (2012BAC19B07)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41130641)
文摘Catchments dominated by meltwater runoff are sensitive to climate change as changes in precipitation and temperature inevitably affect the characteristics of glaciermelt/snowmelt, hydrologic circle and water resources. This study simulated the impact of climate change on the runoff generation and streamflow of Chu River Basin （CRB）, a glacierized basin in Central Asia using the enhanced Soil and Water Assessment Tool （SWAT）. The model was calibrated and validated using the measured monthly streamflow data from three discharge gauge stations in CRB for the period 1961-1985 and was subsequently driven by downscaled future climate projections of five Global Circulation Models （GCMs） in Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 （CMIP5） under three radiative forcing scenarios （RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5）. In this study, the period 1966-1995 was used as the baseline period, while 2016-2045 and 2066-2095 as the near-future and far-future period, respectively. As projected, the climate would become warmer and drier under all scenarios in the future, and the future climate would be characterized by larger seasonal and annual variations under higher RCP. A general decreasing trend was identi- fied in the average annual runoff in glacier （-26.6% to -1.0%）, snow （-21.4% to ＋1.1%） and streamflow （-27.7% to -6.6%） for most of the future scenario periods. The projected maximum streamflow in each of the two future scenarios occurred one month earlier than that in the baseline period because of the reduced streamflow in summer months. Results of this study are expected to arouse the serious concern about water resource availability in the headwater region of CRB under the continuously warming climate. Changes in simulated hydrologic outputs underscored the significance of lowering the uncertainties in temperature and precipitation projection.
文摘Alpine glaciers are the natural solid reservoirs that releases amount of meltwater to supply streams every year. Glacier meltwater, adjuSting the yearly variation of stream runoff and making it trend to wards stableness, becomes the relible water resourc
文摘冰川融水是西北干旱区水资源重要组成部分,定量评估其变化对中、下游生态环境保护和工农业经济可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于国家气象台站日降水和气温资料、数字高程模型(DEM)以及第一次冰川编目数据,利用度日模型模拟了天山南坡阿克苏流域1957—2017年冰川物质平衡及其融水径流变化,分析了融水径流组成及其对气候变化的响应。结果表明:1957—2017年流域年平均物质平衡为-94.6 mm w.e.,61年累积物质平衡为-5.8 m w.e.。流域冰川物质平衡线呈显著上升趋势,年均上升速率为1.6 m/a。研究区年均融水径流量为53.1×10^(8)m^(3),融水增加速率为0.24×10^(8)m^(3)/a,融水径流及其组成分量均呈显著增加趋势。在气候暖湿化背景下,流域降水的增加使得冰川区积累量增加,在剧烈的升温作用下,冰川消融加剧,气温对融水径流的作用增大,因此冰川物质平衡亏损产生的水文效应增强。研究结果可提升区域冰川水资源效应变化及其影响的认识。
