In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic r...In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area’s seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed.展开更多
More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is...More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is accumulated and released cyclically in squeezed zones. Several methods were developed to analyze the medium-and short-term potential of main shocks. These methods can be classified into (1) less data systems using the theory of grey model for earthquake prediction, (2) quasi-periodic systems using earthquake activity analysis, (3) systems of grouped activity using order analysis, and (4) nonlinear systems using back propagation (BP) of neural network for prediction analysis. Based upon these analytic methods, risk maps for the prediction of strong earthquakes can be drawn using the records of strong earthquakes in Taiwan for the past 100 years. These risk maps include (1) a seismic risk map, (2) a loss risk map, (3) a hazard degree map, and (4) a loss degree map. These risk maps make it possible to do a medium-term prediction of main shocks on the 10-year scale.展开更多
文摘In this paper, the process of medium- and short-term prediction (submitted in special cards) of the Artux earthquake (MS=6.9) and the Usurian earthquake (MS=5.8) in Xinjiang area, is introduced. The imminent seismic risk regions are judged based on long- and medium-term seismic risk regions and annual seismic risk regions determined by national seismologic analysis, combined with large seismic situation analysis. We trace and analyze the seismic situation in large areas, and judge principal risk regions or belts of seismic activity in a year, by integrating the large area’s seismicity with geodetic deformation evolutional characteristics. As much as possible using information, we study synthetically observational information for long-medium- and short-term (time domain) and large-medium -small dimensions (space domain), and approach the forecast region of forthcoming earthquakes from the large to small magnitude. A better effect has been obtained. Some questions about earthquake prediction are discussed.
文摘More than a half of strong earthquakes in the world are located in shallow depth at the subducting plate boundary in squeezed zones. Owing to the difference in speed between the moving sea plates, the strain energy is accumulated and released cyclically in squeezed zones. Several methods were developed to analyze the medium-and short-term potential of main shocks. These methods can be classified into (1) less data systems using the theory of grey model for earthquake prediction, (2) quasi-periodic systems using earthquake activity analysis, (3) systems of grouped activity using order analysis, and (4) nonlinear systems using back propagation (BP) of neural network for prediction analysis. Based upon these analytic methods, risk maps for the prediction of strong earthquakes can be drawn using the records of strong earthquakes in Taiwan for the past 100 years. These risk maps include (1) a seismic risk map, (2) a loss risk map, (3) a hazard degree map, and (4) a loss degree map. These risk maps make it possible to do a medium-term prediction of main shocks on the 10-year scale.
