A key unknown limiting assessment of risk posed by inducing anomalous seismicity during hydraulic fracturing is the potential maximum magnitude of an event. To provide insights into the variation in maximum magnitude ...A key unknown limiting assessment of risk posed by inducing anomalous seismicity during hydraulic fracturing is the potential maximum magnitude of an event. To provide insights into the variation in maximum magnitude that can be induced by a hydraulic fracturing stage, worst-case scenarios were simulated in 2D using coupled hydro-geomechanical models. The sensitivity of the magnitude to the hydro-geomechanical properties of the fault and matrix rock were quantitatively compared through parametric analysis. Our base model predicts a maximum event with moment magnitude (<em>M<sub>w</sub></em>) 4.31 and <em>M<sub>w</sub></em> values range from 3.97 to 4.56 for the series of simulations. The highest magnitude is predicted for the model with a longer fault and the lowest magnitude for the model with a smaller Young’s modulus. For our models, the magnitude is most sensitive to changes in the Young’s modulus and length of the fault and least sensitive to changes in the initial reservoir pressure (<em>i.e.</em> pore pressure) and the Poisson’s ratio.展开更多
Seismicity parameters,i.e.,seismic activity rate,X,the so-called Gutenberg-Richter b value(orβ),and maximum possible magnitude,Mmax,for major seismotectonic provinces of Iran are estimated through the application of ...Seismicity parameters,i.e.,seismic activity rate,X,the so-called Gutenberg-Richter b value(orβ),and maximum possible magnitude,Mmax,for major seismotectonic provinces of Iran are estimated through the application of Kijko and SellevolPs uncertainty models.The uncertainty models facilitated the estimation of seismic activity parameters from incomplete and uncertain data files in the catalog of earthquakes in major seismotectonic provinces of Iran.Zagros has the highest seismic activity rate,and is characterized by the occurrence of mainly small-and mid-sized earthquakes.Kopeh Dagh has the lowest activity rate but is characterized by a greater occurrence of major earthquakes.However,the Makran and Alborz-Azarbayejan seismotectonic provinces are most likely the regions which are capable of generating great earthquakes.展开更多
文摘A key unknown limiting assessment of risk posed by inducing anomalous seismicity during hydraulic fracturing is the potential maximum magnitude of an event. To provide insights into the variation in maximum magnitude that can be induced by a hydraulic fracturing stage, worst-case scenarios were simulated in 2D using coupled hydro-geomechanical models. The sensitivity of the magnitude to the hydro-geomechanical properties of the fault and matrix rock were quantitatively compared through parametric analysis. Our base model predicts a maximum event with moment magnitude (<em>M<sub>w</sub></em>) 4.31 and <em>M<sub>w</sub></em> values range from 3.97 to 4.56 for the series of simulations. The highest magnitude is predicted for the model with a longer fault and the lowest magnitude for the model with a smaller Young’s modulus. For our models, the magnitude is most sensitive to changes in the Young’s modulus and length of the fault and least sensitive to changes in the initial reservoir pressure (<em>i.e.</em> pore pressure) and the Poisson’s ratio.
文摘Seismicity parameters,i.e.,seismic activity rate,X,the so-called Gutenberg-Richter b value(orβ),and maximum possible magnitude,Mmax,for major seismotectonic provinces of Iran are estimated through the application of Kijko and SellevolPs uncertainty models.The uncertainty models facilitated the estimation of seismic activity parameters from incomplete and uncertain data files in the catalog of earthquakes in major seismotectonic provinces of Iran.Zagros has the highest seismic activity rate,and is characterized by the occurrence of mainly small-and mid-sized earthquakes.Kopeh Dagh has the lowest activity rate but is characterized by a greater occurrence of major earthquakes.However,the Makran and Alborz-Azarbayejan seismotectonic provinces are most likely the regions which are capable of generating great earthquakes.
