Reductions in the transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly of global concern.As one of the first low-carbon pilot and carbon trading pilot cities,and as one of the largest automobile produ...Reductions in the transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly of global concern.As one of the first low-carbon pilot and carbon trading pilot cities,and as one of the largest automobile production bases in China,Chongqing has multiple low-carbon transportation policies that are coupled.In this study,three policy scenarios are set,including:1)improving the fuel economy of newly sold gasoline passenger cars to 5.71 per 100 km by 2020,2)promoting pure electric private cars to increase the share to 7% of private car sales by 2020,and 3)the policy mix scenario of the above two policies.Simulations are undertaken with the Chinese Academy of Sciences general equilibrium(CAS-GE)model,a type of computable GE model,to assess the macro-economic impact and the industrial impact of the three policy scenarios.Through the policy impact mechanism analysis and data-mapping process,the micro-economic impact analysis results,including costs and fuel savings,for the two policies from the bottom-up model are taken as the shock variables and inputs for the CAS-GE model.The results show that:1)the two policies will both have a slightly negative impact(-0.09% and -0.30%)on Chongqing's GDP in 2020;2)the employment rate will decrease by 0.12% and 0.47%,but the inflation rate will be restrained to a certain extent(-0.21% and -0.17%);and 3)the complementarity of the mixed policy can weaken the negative impact of the two policies when implemented separately.The mixed policy will reduce the GDP slightly by 0.37%,compared with the cumulative effect of the two policies implemented separately,resulting in cost-effective synergies at the macroeconomic impact level;and 4)the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has an uncertain impact on the results.The method and results can provide a reference for the formulation and adjustment of low-carbon transportation policies in other large cities.展开更多
The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on c indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during...The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on c indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades. The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship. Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper. In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.展开更多
China＇s mini-stimulus policy is justi^ed for some proven effects on economic stabilization. However, the policy should not be used on regular, long-term base. Mini- stimulus economic policy is still essentially inves...China＇s mini-stimulus policy is justi^ed for some proven effects on economic stabilization. However, the policy should not be used on regular, long-term base. Mini- stimulus economic policy is still essentially investment-driven and by nature no different from the four trillion yuan stimulus package introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The policy strength of mini-stimulus packages the Chinese government resorted to has already accumulated to ascend to quite an extent. Further, ministimulus policy cannot stabilize growth and promote economic restructuring simultaneously. In fact, its effects on restructuring are short-term and may even be negative. Additionally, the diminishing potency of China＇s mini-stimulus policy efforts may force the government to resort to another hefty stimulus package with severe side effects. In the final analysis, it is social policy not economic stimuli that will help the Chinese economy achieve a soft landing.展开更多
The growth of fixed assets investment in China soared to a high record in the first quarter of 2004 after gross domestic product （GDP） bounced substantially in 2003. A bubble is emerging posing threats to Chinese ec...The growth of fixed assets investment in China soared to a high record in the first quarter of 2004 after gross domestic product （GDP） bounced substantially in 2003. A bubble is emerging posing threats to Chinese economic development. In order to cool down the overheated investment, Chinese government should promptly take effective measures in macroeconomic control to limit or guide the red-hot investment in some sectors and slow down its growth, thus implements the changes from administrative-driven investment to enterprise-driven investment and from investment-driven economic growth to consumption-driven growth.展开更多
The transformation of China’s economy from the“old normal”to the“targeted new normal”will be an arduous process and the core of this task is achieving sustainable development of the Chinese economy,i.e.,the targe...The transformation of China’s economy from the“old normal”to the“targeted new normal”will be an arduous process and the core of this task is achieving sustainable development of the Chinese economy,i.e.,the targeted“new normal,”and realizing the modernization of the state’s governance system and capacity through reform.In this transformation period,such aspects as economic growth rate,economic security,the quality and efficiency of economic growth,and fairness and justice are evolving.The development of the“new normal”in this transformation period is jointly determined by China’s long-term economic growth and all the reform measures intended for advancing the modernization of the national governance system and capacity.Multiple risks confront the“new normal,”and comprehensive macro-economic policies are needed for the smooth running and further development of the economy.展开更多
This study was conducted to determine the value added by Income-Generating Activities （IGAs） on the financial performance of public secondary schools, in terms of assets, liability portfolio, and net worth. Secondar...This study was conducted to determine the value added by Income-Generating Activities （IGAs） on the financial performance of public secondary schools, in terms of assets, liability portfolio, and net worth. Secondary school managers have the gigantic task of balancing meager resources between subsistence and development needs as well as good performance in national examinations. However, macro-economic shocks such as inflation, fuel shortage, and crop failure, among others, often militate against the success of public schools. School-based IGAs enable public schools to cope with external economic shocks, without necessarily passing down budgetary adjustments to parents. However, the country lacks a clear policy guideline to facilitate the initiation, management, accounting, reviewing, and financial reporting of IGA projects. Besides, there is no documented information regarding the value added by IGA initiatives to the financial performance of public secondary schools. The study found that IGA and non-IGA schools were significantly different in terms of category, student population, age, annual income, and number of paid workers. Schools having IGAs were 1.9 times more likely to own as many assets as schools not having IGAs. Besides, IGA schools were about 2.2 times less likely to have their liability in excess of the median threshold. Regarding net worth, the study found that schools having IGAs were about 2.1 times more likely to be operating above the median threshold; suggesting that schools having IGAs were wealthier than non-IGA schools. Based on the findings, this study concludes that IGA projects were beneficial to schools by improving the ability of schools to accumulate assets and manage their liabilities. The study recommends the need to： formulate an appropriate policy framework to guide and standardize IGA activities; initiate suitable training programs for school IGA managers; as well as engage business development managers to advice schools on IGA matters.展开更多
In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework t...In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(71573249,71801212)the Clean Development Mechanism Fund of China(2014091)+3 种基金the Key Task Project of CASISD(Y02015003)the A Type Project of the President Youth Funding of CASISD(Y7X1091Q01)the Shenzhen Low-Carbon City Big Data Engineering Laboratory(ShenzhenDRC[2017]1089)the Discipline Construction Program on Combating Climate Change and Low-Carbon Economics of HITSZ(ShenzhenDRC[2018]725).
文摘Reductions in the transportation sector's carbon dioxide emissions are increasingly of global concern.As one of the first low-carbon pilot and carbon trading pilot cities,and as one of the largest automobile production bases in China,Chongqing has multiple low-carbon transportation policies that are coupled.In this study,three policy scenarios are set,including:1)improving the fuel economy of newly sold gasoline passenger cars to 5.71 per 100 km by 2020,2)promoting pure electric private cars to increase the share to 7% of private car sales by 2020,and 3)the policy mix scenario of the above two policies.Simulations are undertaken with the Chinese Academy of Sciences general equilibrium(CAS-GE)model,a type of computable GE model,to assess the macro-economic impact and the industrial impact of the three policy scenarios.Through the policy impact mechanism analysis and data-mapping process,the micro-economic impact analysis results,including costs and fuel savings,for the two policies from the bottom-up model are taken as the shock variables and inputs for the CAS-GE model.The results show that:1)the two policies will both have a slightly negative impact(-0.09% and -0.30%)on Chongqing's GDP in 2020;2)the employment rate will decrease by 0.12% and 0.47%,but the inflation rate will be restrained to a certain extent(-0.21% and -0.17%);and 3)the complementarity of the mixed policy can weaken the negative impact of the two policies when implemented separately.The mixed policy will reduce the GDP slightly by 0.37%,compared with the cumulative effect of the two policies implemented separately,resulting in cost-effective synergies at the macroeconomic impact level;and 4)the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has an uncertain impact on the results.The method and results can provide a reference for the formulation and adjustment of low-carbon transportation policies in other large cities.
基金sponsored by the Tenth Five-year Plan of Special Social Common Weal Research Programs of the State (2004DIA3J010).
文摘The paper introduces firstly the seismic loss assessment method based on c indicators and new vulnerability models determined by the data from the on-site damage and loss survey to earthquakes occurred in China during the last two decades. The fast assessment for the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake with Ms8.0 is given based on an empirical intensity attenuation relationship. Compared with the assessment based on the practical seismic intensity map of the event according to the on-site investigation, the result demonstrates the usability of the seismic vulnerability models introduced in the paper. In addition, it is indicated that the main uncertainty of losses in the fast loss assessment comes from the uncertainty of the estimation of seismic ground motion.
文摘China＇s mini-stimulus policy is justi^ed for some proven effects on economic stabilization. However, the policy should not be used on regular, long-term base. Mini- stimulus economic policy is still essentially investment-driven and by nature no different from the four trillion yuan stimulus package introduced in the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008. The policy strength of mini-stimulus packages the Chinese government resorted to has already accumulated to ascend to quite an extent. Further, ministimulus policy cannot stabilize growth and promote economic restructuring simultaneously. In fact, its effects on restructuring are short-term and may even be negative. Additionally, the diminishing potency of China＇s mini-stimulus policy efforts may force the government to resort to another hefty stimulus package with severe side effects. In the final analysis, it is social policy not economic stimuli that will help the Chinese economy achieve a soft landing.
文摘The growth of fixed assets investment in China soared to a high record in the first quarter of 2004 after gross domestic product （GDP） bounced substantially in 2003. A bubble is emerging posing threats to Chinese economic development. In order to cool down the overheated investment, Chinese government should promptly take effective measures in macroeconomic control to limit or guide the red-hot investment in some sectors and slow down its growth, thus implements the changes from administrative-driven investment to enterprise-driven investment and from investment-driven economic growth to consumption-driven growth.
文摘The transformation of China’s economy from the“old normal”to the“targeted new normal”will be an arduous process and the core of this task is achieving sustainable development of the Chinese economy,i.e.,the targeted“new normal,”and realizing the modernization of the state’s governance system and capacity through reform.In this transformation period,such aspects as economic growth rate,economic security,the quality and efficiency of economic growth,and fairness and justice are evolving.The development of the“new normal”in this transformation period is jointly determined by China’s long-term economic growth and all the reform measures intended for advancing the modernization of the national governance system and capacity.Multiple risks confront the“new normal,”and comprehensive macro-economic policies are needed for the smooth running and further development of the economy.
文摘This study was conducted to determine the value added by Income-Generating Activities （IGAs） on the financial performance of public secondary schools, in terms of assets, liability portfolio, and net worth. Secondary school managers have the gigantic task of balancing meager resources between subsistence and development needs as well as good performance in national examinations. However, macro-economic shocks such as inflation, fuel shortage, and crop failure, among others, often militate against the success of public schools. School-based IGAs enable public schools to cope with external economic shocks, without necessarily passing down budgetary adjustments to parents. However, the country lacks a clear policy guideline to facilitate the initiation, management, accounting, reviewing, and financial reporting of IGA projects. Besides, there is no documented information regarding the value added by IGA initiatives to the financial performance of public secondary schools. The study found that IGA and non-IGA schools were significantly different in terms of category, student population, age, annual income, and number of paid workers. Schools having IGAs were 1.9 times more likely to own as many assets as schools not having IGAs. Besides, IGA schools were about 2.2 times less likely to have their liability in excess of the median threshold. Regarding net worth, the study found that schools having IGAs were about 2.1 times more likely to be operating above the median threshold; suggesting that schools having IGAs were wealthier than non-IGA schools. Based on the findings, this study concludes that IGA projects were beneficial to schools by improving the ability of schools to accumulate assets and manage their liabilities. The study recommends the need to： formulate an appropriate policy framework to guide and standardize IGA activities; initiate suitable training programs for school IGA managers; as well as engage business development managers to advice schools on IGA matters.
文摘In this article, Nobel Prize Laureate Joseph Stiglitz argues that the standard macro-economic paradigm has failed not only to predict the crisis but also to provide insights into the design of a regulatory framework that would make a recurrence less likely. He points out that many of the underlying assumptions of the standard paradigm always seemed implausible and many of its predictions, such as those concerning the micro-economic behavior of the constituents (firms and households), are inconsistent with the empirical evidence. He then identifies a number of key modeling challenges, what he views as key ingredients that have to be incorporated in any model that is going to describe economic fluctuations or be the basis of a well-designed regulatory or monetary framework.
