Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century （1916-2014）, the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatia...Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century （1916-2014）, the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that： （1） Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. （2） The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. （3） Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.展开更多
Al 5083 alloys(5.25 at.% Mg) of different tempers(H131 and H116) were aged at low temperatures(50and 70?C) for 41 months. Scanning transmission electron microscopy(STEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy(EDS), and...Al 5083 alloys(5.25 at.% Mg) of different tempers(H131 and H116) were aged at low temperatures(50and 70?C) for 41 months. Scanning transmission electron microscopy(STEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy(EDS), and atom probe tomography(APT) were applied to characterize precipitates formed in the sensitized samples. Experimental results revealed that the size of Mg-rich precipitates increased with aging time at 70?C for both alloys. APT results showed that Mg-rich precipitates of different Mg concentrations and morphologies formed in Al matrix and on the interface of Al matrix/pre-existing particles. In addition, a model based on local equilibrium of chemical potential and multi-class precipitates number evolution was adopted to predict the multiphase precipitation process in the Al-Mg binary system. The overall trend of precipitate radius and number density predicted by the model matched well with the experimental results. Moreover, modeling results revealed that nucleation and coarsening occurred faster in Al 5083 H131 than in Al 5083 H116 when aged at same temperature. The high density of dislocations and the pipe diffusion mechanism of dislocations can be used to explain such behavior.展开更多
A comprehensive precipitation trend and periodic analysis at the seasonal scale on a 286year data series （1724-2009） for Beijing are presented using linear regression, 11-year moving averages, Mann-Kendall test and ...A comprehensive precipitation trend and periodic analysis at the seasonal scale on a 286year data series （1724-2009） for Beijing are presented using linear regression, 11-year moving averages, Mann-Kendall test and continuous Morlet wavelet analysis. We found that in the past 300 years precipitation has increased except during winter. There were strong increasing trends after the 1780s in both summer and annual precipitation data series and the trend was significant for a longterm period. The abrupt points of summer and annual data series of precipitation are 1764 and 1768 respectively, after that, the trend changed from decreasing to increasing. It shows different periodic traits in four seasons respectively： 30–170 years, 80–95 years, 75–95 years and 55–65 years are considered to be the strongest period in spring, summer, autumn and winter. One hundred and fiftythree years, 85 years, 83 years and 59 years are the first order main periods in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. The trend and period of annual precipitation are mainly impacted by rainfall in summe. According to the first main period of 85 years in both summer and annual precipitation data series, Beijing will experience a time period of less precipitation in 2009–2030.展开更多
针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2...针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2020年汛期的月降水预报中有较好的适用性,特别在6月和9月降水预报上表现优异;与多因子回归、随机森林数理统计模型和CFSv2、ECMWF system 4动力数值模型相比,该模型更为稳健、预报精度提高显著。展开更多
基金jointly supported by the Major Consulting Projects of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(“Study on Strategies and Measures for the Prevention and Control of Urban Flood and Waterlogging Disasters in China”)the Public Welfare Industry(Meteorological)Research Projects(Grant Nos.GYHY201306065,GYHY201406001)a research project of the Shanghai Meteorological Bureau(Grant No.YJ201604)
文摘Using the hourly precipitation records of meteorological stations in Shanghai, covering a period of almost a century （1916-2014）, the long-term variation of extreme heavy precipitation in Shanghai on multiple spatial and temporal scales is analyzed, and the effects of urbanization on hourly rainstorms studied. Results show that： （1） Over the last century, extreme hourly precipitation events enhanced significantly. During the recent urbanization period from 1981 to 2014, the frequency of heavy precipitation increased significantly, with a distinct localized and abrupt characteristic. （2） The spatial distribution of long-term trends for the occurrence frequency and total precipitation intensity of hourly heavy precipitation in Shanghai shows a distinct urban rain-island feature; namely, heavy precipitation was increasingly focused in urban and suburban areas. Attribution analysis shows that urbanization in Shanghai contributed greatly to the increase in both frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall events in the city, thus leading to an increasing total precipitation amount of heavy rainfall events. In addition, the diurnal variation of rainfall intensity also shows distinctive urban-rural differences, especially during late afternoon and early nighttime in the city area. （3） Regional warming, with subsequent enhancement of water vapor content, convergence of moisture flux and atmospheric instability, provided favorable physical backgrounds for the formation of extreme precipitation. This accounts for the consistent increase in hourly heavy precipitation over the whole Shanghai area during recent times.
基金supported by Office of Naval Research, Award Number: N000141210507the Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s High Flux Isotope Reactor, which is sponsored by the Scientific User Facilities Division, Office of Basic Energy Sciences, U.S. Department of EnergyUniversity of Utah USTAR shared facilities support, in part, by the MRSEC Program of NSF under Award No. DMR-1121252
文摘Al 5083 alloys(5.25 at.% Mg) of different tempers(H131 and H116) were aged at low temperatures(50and 70?C) for 41 months. Scanning transmission electron microscopy(STEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy(EDS), and atom probe tomography(APT) were applied to characterize precipitates formed in the sensitized samples. Experimental results revealed that the size of Mg-rich precipitates increased with aging time at 70?C for both alloys. APT results showed that Mg-rich precipitates of different Mg concentrations and morphologies formed in Al matrix and on the interface of Al matrix/pre-existing particles. In addition, a model based on local equilibrium of chemical potential and multi-class precipitates number evolution was adopted to predict the multiphase precipitation process in the Al-Mg binary system. The overall trend of precipitate radius and number density predicted by the model matched well with the experimental results. Moreover, modeling results revealed that nucleation and coarsening occurred faster in Al 5083 H131 than in Al 5083 H116 when aged at same temperature. The high density of dislocations and the pipe diffusion mechanism of dislocations can be used to explain such behavior.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2010CB428406)External Cooperation Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (GJHZ1016)
文摘A comprehensive precipitation trend and periodic analysis at the seasonal scale on a 286year data series （1724-2009） for Beijing are presented using linear regression, 11-year moving averages, Mann-Kendall test and continuous Morlet wavelet analysis. We found that in the past 300 years precipitation has increased except during winter. There were strong increasing trends after the 1780s in both summer and annual precipitation data series and the trend was significant for a longterm period. The abrupt points of summer and annual data series of precipitation are 1764 and 1768 respectively, after that, the trend changed from decreasing to increasing. It shows different periodic traits in four seasons respectively： 30–170 years, 80–95 years, 75–95 years and 55–65 years are considered to be the strongest period in spring, summer, autumn and winter. One hundred and fiftythree years, 85 years, 83 years and 59 years are the first order main periods in spring, summer, autumn and winter, respectively. The trend and period of annual precipitation are mainly impacted by rainfall in summe. According to the first main period of 85 years in both summer and annual precipitation data series, Beijing will experience a time period of less precipitation in 2009–2030.
文摘针对降水具有混沌性和随机性,准确进行长期降水预报难度高的问题,提出时变海温多极指数和因子预报意见指数,基于大气环流和海温场构建长期降水组合预报模型,以三峡水库流域为例进行了验证。结果表明:组合预报模型在三峡水库流域1961—2020年汛期的月降水预报中有较好的适用性,特别在6月和9月降水预报上表现优异;与多因子回归、随机森林数理统计模型和CFSv2、ECMWF system 4动力数值模型相比,该模型更为稳健、预报精度提高显著。
