Changes in land use cover, particularly from forest to agriculture, is a major contributing factor in increasing carbon dioxide(CO2) level in the atmosphere.Using satellite images of 1999 and 2011, land use and land...Changes in land use cover, particularly from forest to agriculture, is a major contributing factor in increasing carbon dioxide(CO2) level in the atmosphere.Using satellite images of 1999 and 2011, land use and land use changes in the Kumrat valley KPK, Pakistan, were determined: a net decrease of 11.56 and 7.46 % occurred in forest and rangeland, while 100 % increase occurred in agriculture land(AL). Biomass in different land uses,forest land(FL), AL, and range land(RL) was determined by field inventory. From the biomass data, the amount of carbon was calculated, considering 50 % of the biomass as carbon. Soil carbon was also determined to a depth of 0–15and 16–30 cm. The average carbon stocks(C stocks) in all land uses ranged from 28.62 ± 13.8 t ha-1in AL to486.6 ± 32.4 t ha-1in pure Cedrus deodara forest. The results of the study confirmed that forest soil and vegetation stored the maximum amount of carbon followed by RL. Conversion of FL and RL to AL not only leads to total loss of about 56 %(from FL conversion) and 37 %(RL conversion) of soil carbon in the last decades but also the loss of a valuable carbon sink. In order to meet the emissions reduction obligations of the Kyoto Protocol, Conservation of forest and RL in the mountainous regions of the Hindu Kush will help Pakistan to meet its emissions reduction goals under the Kyoto Protocol.展开更多
In this paper, we analyzed the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region based on climate datasets LSAT-V1.1 and CGP1.0 recently developed by the China Meteorological ...In this paper, we analyzed the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region based on climate datasets LSAT-V1.1 and CGP1.0 recently developed by the China Meteorological Administration. The analysis results show that during 1901e2014 the annual mean surface air temperature over the whole HKH has undergone a significant increasing trend. We determined the change rates in the mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature to be 0.104 C per decade, 0.077 C per decade, and 0.176 C per decade, respectively. Most parts of the HKH have experienced a warming trend, with the largest increase occurring on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and south of Pakistan. The trend of precipitation for the whole HKH is characterized by a slight decrease during 1901e2014. During 1961e2013, however, the trend of the annual precipitation shows a statistically significant increase, with a rate of 5.28% per decade and has a more rapid increase since the mid-1980s. Most parts of northern India and the northern TP have experienced a strong increase in the number of precipitation days (daily rainfall 1 mm), whereas Southwest China and Myanmar have experienced a declining trend in precipitation days. Compared to the trends in precipitation days, the spatial pattern of trends in the precipitation intensity seems to be more closely related to the terrain, and the higher altitude areas have shown more significant upward trends in precipitation intensity during 1961e2013.展开更多
We employed a double-difference algorithm (hypoDD) to relocate earthquakes within the region bounded by 66°E-78°E and 32°N-42°N in the period of 1964-2003 reported by the International Seismologi...We employed a double-difference algorithm (hypoDD) to relocate earthquakes within the region bounded by 66°E-78°E and 32°N-42°N in the period of 1964-2003 reported by the International Seismological Center (ISC). The improved hypocentral locations delineate a double-layered Wadati-Benioff zone in the eastern Hindu Kush intermediate seismic belt. Based on this feature and other evidences, we propose that the intermediate-depth earthquakes beneath the Pamir-Hindu Kush region may occur in two collided subduction zones with opposite dip directions.展开更多
Prior to the collision and accretion of the Kohistan arc terrane during the late Cretaceous and the Indian plate after the early Eocene, the southern margin of Asia along the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Lhasa block terr...Prior to the collision and accretion of the Kohistan arc terrane during the late Cretaceous and the Indian plate after the early Eocene, the southern margin of Asia along the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Lhasa block terranes was an active Andean\|type continental margin. In south Tibet this margin was dominated by the calc\|alkaline Ladakh—Gangdese granite batholith, associated andesitic volcanic rocks and continental red\|beds. In contrast, the southern Karakoram exposes deep crustal metamorphic rocks and crustal melt leucogranites. New U\|Pb age dating from the Hunza valley and Baltoro glacier region has revealed four spatially and temporally distinct metamorphic episodes. M1 sillimanite grade metamorphism in Hunza was a late Cretaceous event, probably caused by the accretion of the Kohistan arc to Asia. M2 was the major kyanite and sillimanite grade event during late Eocene—Oligocene crustal thickening and shortening, following India\|Asia collision. Numerous melting events resulted in the formation of crustal melt granites throughout the last 50Ma with multiple generations of dykes and very large scale crustal melting along the Baltoro monzogranite\|leucogranite ba tholith during the late Oligocene—early Miocene. M3 metamorphism was a high\| T , low\| p contact thermal metamorphism around the Baltoro granite. In Hunza, younger staurolite grade metamorphism has been dated by U\|Pb monazites at 16Ma, with the Sumayar leucogranite intruded at 9 5Ma cross\|cutting the metamorphic isograds. In the Baltoro region the youngest metamorphism, M4, is the sillimanite grade Dassu gneiss core complex dated by U\|Pb on monazites as late Miocene—Pliocene (5 4±0 25)Ma with Precambrian protolith zircon cores (1855±11)Ma. Numerous gem\|bearing pegmatite dykes cross\|cut these rocks and are thought to have been intruded within the last 2~3Ma. Structural mapping, combined with U\|Pb geochronology shows that major metamorphic events can be both long\|lasting (up to 20Ma) and very restrictive, both in time and space.展开更多
The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH hereafter) region is characterized by mountainous environments and a variety of regional climatic conditions. High-altitude regions in the HKH have the recent warming amplifications, espe...The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH hereafter) region is characterized by mountainous environments and a variety of regional climatic conditions. High-altitude regions in the HKH have the recent warming amplifications, especially during the global warming hiatus period. The rapid warming cause solid state water (snow, ice, glacier, and permafrost) to shrink, leading to increase in meltwater and there have been found more frequent incidences of flash floods, landslides, livestock diseases, and other disasters in the HKH region. Increasing awareness of climate change over the HKH region is reached a consensus. Meanwhile, the HKH region is often referred to as the water towers of Asia as many highaltitude regions store its water in the form of snow and/or glacier, feeding ten major large rivers in Asia. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on water availability in these river basins have huge influences on the livelihood of large number of population, especially in downstream regions. However, the scarcity of basic hydro-meteorological observations particularly in high-altitude regions of HKH limits rigorous analysis of climate change. Most studies used reanalysis data and/or model-reconstructed products to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of hydro-meteorological processes, especially for extreme events. In this study, we review recent climate change in the HKH region, and the scientific challenges and research recommendations are suggested for this high-altitude area.展开更多
Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temper...Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.展开更多
This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seaso...This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036e2065) and far-future (2066e2095) periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 C during winter than of 4.9 C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly subregion within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM uncertainty among the downscaled multi-RCMs. Finally, the RCM related uncerta展开更多
The grassland in the Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH) region is one of the large st and most biodiverse mountain grassland types in the world,and its ecosystem service functions have profound impacts on the sustainable devel...The grassland in the Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH) region is one of the large st and most biodiverse mountain grassland types in the world,and its ecosystem service functions have profound impacts on the sustainable development of the HKH region.Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of grassland aboveground biomass(AGB) accurately and quantifying its response to climate change are indispensable sources of information for sustainably managing grassland ecosystems in the HKH region.In this study,a pure vegetation index model(PVIM) was applied to estimate the long-term dynamics of grassland AGB in the HKH region during 2000-2018.We further quantified the response of grassland AGB to climate change(temperature and precipitation) by partial correlation and variance partitioning analyses and then compared their differences with elevation.Our results demonstrated that the grassland AGB predicted by the PVIM had a good linear relationship with the ground sampling data.The grassland AGB distribution pattern showed a decreasing trend from east to west across the HKH region except in the southern Himalayas.From 2000 to 2018,the mean AGB of the HKH region increased at a rate of 1.57 g/(m~2·yr) and ranged from 252.9(2000) to 307.8 g/m~2(2018).AGB had a positive correlation with precipitation in more than 80% of the grassland,and temperature was positively correlated with AGB in approximately half of the region.The change in grassland AGB was more responsive to the cumulative effect of annual precipitation,while it was more sensitive to the change in temperature in the growing season;in addition,the influence of climate varied at different elevations.Moreover,compared with that of temperature,the contribution of precipitation to grassland AGB change was greater in approximately 60% of the grassland,but the differences in the contribution for each climate factor were small between the two temporal scales at elevations over 2000 m.An accurate assessment of the temporal and spatial distributions of grassland AGB and the quantif展开更多
A large numbers of mountain communities in the Himalayan region depend on glacier-fed kuhl system – gravity flow irrigation, for their sustenance. The depletion and retreat of glaciers often result in disruption of m...A large numbers of mountain communities in the Himalayan region depend on glacier-fed kuhl system – gravity flow irrigation, for their sustenance. The depletion and retreat of glaciers often result in disruption of melt flows to kuhl system, which ultimately impacts the agriculture as well as livelihood of the local communities. Sustainability of glacial resource was assessed for establishing kuhl irrigation system based on indices of glacier decrease by number(GDN) and glacier depletion by volume(GDV) during the 2001-2013 period. The selected factors are important in terms of understanding point source and reserve potential of glaciers for sustaining glacier-fed kuhl irrigation in this region. The sustainability of glaciers was found good(i.e. a least decrease or rather increase in glacier number and volume) in about 23.6% glaciers(ice reserves about 705.9 km^3) under >10 km^2 area class of glaciers mainly in Gilgit and Shigar river basins of the Karakoram range. In the 5–10 km^2 class of glaciers, sustainability was good in 49 glaciers(ice reserve 26.59 km^3) and under 1–5 km^2 class, in 558 glaciers(ice reserve 60.189 km^3). Overall sustainability of glaciers appears to prevail in the Karakoram basins. The lesser sustainability of glaciers in the Himalaya basins like Astore and Jhelum would apparently be compensated by monsoon and change in rainfall pattern. A regular monitoring of the glacier resource and utilizing advance water conservation techniques would help in coping with negative impacts of downwasting of glaciers and provide long-term support to kuhl irrigation system in the Himalayan region in future.展开更多
In the alpine regions of Hindu Kush,Himalayas and Karakorum, climatic and topographic conditions can support the formation of peat,important for the livelihood of the local communities,and ecological services alike. T...In the alpine regions of Hindu Kush,Himalayas and Karakorum, climatic and topographic conditions can support the formation of peat,important for the livelihood of the local communities,and ecological services alike. These peatlands are a source of fuel for the local community, habitat for nesting birds, and water regulation at source for rivers.Ground-based surveys of high-altitude peatlands are not only difficult, but also expensive and time consuming. Therefore, a method using cost-effective remote sensing technology is required. In this article we assessed the distribution and extent of highaltitude peatlands in a 2000 ha area of Broghil Valley using Landsat 8 data. The composite image was trained using a priori knowledge of the area, and classified into peatland and non-peatland land covers using a supervised decision tree algorithm. The Landsat-based classification map was compared with field data collected with a differential GPS. This comparison suggests 82% overall accuracy, which is fairly high for high altitude areas. The method was successfully applied and has the potential to be replicated for other areas in Pakistan and the highaltitude regions of the neighbouring Asian countries.展开更多
The Hindu Kush Himalaya is the highest mountainous andplateau system in the world, sitting on most of the world'shighest peaks over 8000 m in height (Fig. 1). This regionencompasses an area of more than 4.3 millio...The Hindu Kush Himalaya is the highest mountainous andplateau system in the world, sitting on most of the world'shighest peaks over 8000 m in height (Fig. 1). This regionencompasses an area of more than 4.3 million km2 and is characterized by a diversity of physiographic landscapes, climate types and bio-systems, the largest cryosphere in the world beyond the two poles, and being the source of a number of highly important large rivers including the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers. The HKH is populated by about 210 million people and an additional 1.3 billion people live in downstream basins of the ten large rivers originating from this region.展开更多
Hindukush is an active subduction zone where at least one earthquake occurs on daily basis.For seismic hazard studies,it is important to develop a local magnitude scale using the data of local seismic network.We have ...Hindukush is an active subduction zone where at least one earthquake occurs on daily basis.For seismic hazard studies,it is important to develop a local magnitude scale using the data of local seismic network.We have computed local magnitude scale for Hindukush earthquakes using data from local network belonging to Center for Earthquake Studies(CES)for a period of three years,i.e.2015–2017.A total of 26,365 seismic records pertaining to 2,683 earthquakes with magnitude 2.0 and greater,was used with hypocentral distance less than 600 km.Magnitude scale developed by using this data comes to be M_(L)=logA+0.929logr+0.00298r-1.84.The magnitude determined through formulated relation was compared with that of standard relation for Southern California and relation developed by the same authors for local network for Northern Punjab.It was observed that Hindukush region has high attenuation as compared to that of Southern California and Northern Punjab which implies that Hindukush is tectonically more disturbed as compared to the said regions,hence,seismically more active as well.We have calculated station correction factors for our network.Station correction factors do not show any pattern which probably owes to the geological and tectonic complexity of this structure.Standard deviation and variance of magnitude residuals for CES network determined using Hutton and Boore scale and scale developed in this study were compared,it showed that a variance reduction of 44.1%was achieved.Average of magnitude residuals for different distance ranges was almost zero which showed that our magnitude scale was stable for all distances up to 600 km.Newly developed magnitude scale will help in homogenization of earthquake catalog.It has been observed that b-value of CES catalog decreases when magnitude is calculated by using newly developed magnitude scale.展开更多
Asia and its Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH)region is particularly vulnerable to environmental change,especially climate and land use changes further influenced by rapid population growth,high level of poverty and unsustain...Asia and its Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH)region is particularly vulnerable to environmental change,especially climate and land use changes further influenced by rapid population growth,high level of poverty and unsustainable development.Asia has been a hotspot of dengue fever and chikungunya mainly due to its dense human population,unplanned urbanization and poverty.In an urban cycle,dengue virus(DENV)and chikungunya virus(CHIKV)are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Ae.albopictus mosquitoes which are also competent vectors of Zika virus(ZIKV).Over the last decade,DENV and CHIKV transmissions by Ae.aegypti have extended to the Himalayan countries of Bhutan and Nepal and ZIKV could follow in the footsteps of these viruses in the HKH region.The already established distribution of human-biting Aedes mosquito vectors and a naïve population with lack of immunity against ZIKV places the HKH region at a higher risk of ZIKV.Some of the countries in the HKH region have already reported ZIKV cases.We have documented an increasing threat of ZIKV in Asia and its HKH region because of the high abundance and wide distribution of human-biting mosquito vectors,climate change,poverty,report of indigenous cases in the region,increasing numbers of imported cases and a naïve population with lack of immunity against ZIKV.An outbreak anywhere is potentially a threat everywhere.Therefore,in order to ensure international health security,all efforts to prevent,detect,and respond to ZIKV ought to be intensified now in Asia and its HKH region.To prepare for possible ZIKV outbreaks,Asia and the HKH region can also learn from the success stories and strategies adopted by other regions and countries in preventing ZIKV and associated complications.The future control strategies for DENV,CHIKV and ZIKV should be considered in tandem with the threat to human well-being that is posed by other emerging and re-emerging vector-borne and zoonotic diseases,and by the continuing urgent need to strengthen public primary healthcare systems in the region.展开更多
Globally,mountains are often characterized as fragile and hazardous terrains,with vast areas covered by the cryosphere.The livelihoods of communities in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region are closely linked with the cryo...Globally,mountains are often characterized as fragile and hazardous terrains,with vast areas covered by the cryosphere.The livelihoods of communities in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region are closely linked with the cryosphere.But over the past few decades,communities in the region have experienced multiple changes,including those driven by climat e change,with direct and immediate impacts on their lives and livelihoods.In this study,we explore linkages between the cryosphere and high-mountain livelihoods using a social-ecological system approach.It examines how the complex social-ecological system in villages in Langtang Valley,Nepal,has evolved in response to both cryospheric and socioeconomic changes.The local communities perceive gradual but significant changes in the cryospheric system,such as receding and thinning glaciers,changing snowfall patterns,changes in temperature and precipitation patterns,and a growing incidence of cryosphere-related hazards,such as avalanches and landslides.Communities in the Langtang Valley are also facing a number of socioeconomic changes,resulting in changing aspirations,particularly among the youth.The growing disconnection between society and the surrounding cryosphere,with direct impacts on the transfer and growth of local knowledge systems,are discussed.These simultaneous changes in the cryosphere and the socioeconomic domain have also resulted in a homogenization of livelihood sources,with tourism emerging as the dominant source of livelihood.This has resulted in a dependence of the local population on food imported from outside the valley.A growing dependence on tourism for livelihoods,dependence on imports for food and other basic needs,and the lack of a risk reduction strategy might pose great risks for local lives and livelihoods in the long run.Interventions pertaining to diversifying livelihoods,harmonizing social capital,and hazard risk assessment are essential for strengthening linkages between cryosphere and the socioeconomic system.展开更多
The Pamir-Hindu Kush region at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibet orogen is one of the most active regions on the globe with strong seismicity and deformation and provides a window to evaluate continental collisio...The Pamir-Hindu Kush region at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibet orogen is one of the most active regions on the globe with strong seismicity and deformation and provides a window to evaluate continental collision linked to two intra-continental subduction zones with different polarities.The seismicity and seismic tomography data show a steep northward subducting slab beneath the Hindu Kush and southward subducting slab under the Pamir.Here,we collect seismic catalogue with 3988 earthquake events to compute seismicity images and waveform data from 926 earthquake events to invert focal mechanism solutions and stress field with a view to characterize the subducting slabs under the Pamir-Hindu Kush region.Our results define two distinct seismic zones:a steep one beneath the Hindu Kush and a broad one beneath the Pamir.Deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes are mainly distributed in the Hindu Kush region which is controlled by thrust faulting,whereas the Pamir is dominated by strike-slip stress regime with shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.The area where the maximum principal stress axis is vertical in the southern Pamir corresponds to the location of a highconductivity low-velocity region that contributes to the seismogenic processes in this region.We interpret the two distinct seismic zones to represent a double-sided subduction system where the Hindu Kush zone represents the northward subduction of the Indian plate,and the Pamir zone shows southward subduction of the Eurasian plate.A transition fault is inferred in the region between the Hindu Kush and the Pamir which regulates the opposing directions of motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates.展开更多
The current stress state of the Earth's crust in Central Asia depends entirely on the interaction of the Eurasian plate with the Indian and Arabian plates.Moreover,an essential role in this action is played by the...The current stress state of the Earth's crust in Central Asia depends entirely on the interaction of the Eurasian plate with the Indian and Arabian plates.Moreover,an essential role in this action is played by the subduction process in the Pamir-Hind Kush zone.In this region,deep earthquakes and anomalies in seismic velocities indicate subduction of the Indian Plate.To determine the effect of earthquakes on the stress state of the Earth's crust in Central Asia,we analyzed the hypocenters according to the available data over a hundred years.Taking the envelope of the hypocenters as the surface of the subducted indenter,we analyzed its penetration into the mantle.Instead of the pushing force of the indenter,the velocity of the Indian plate is taken into consideration.A model of the stresses is constructed on the equations of creeping motion of a viscous incompressible fluid.The stress variation in the Earth's crust and mantle was calculated as the stress difference before and after the earthquake.The mechanism of earthquakes is modelled by an introduction of equivalent volume forces in the equilibrium equations corresponding to a couple dipoles without a moment.The equations of creeping motion are numerically solved using boundary element methods.Numerical experiments with different physical model pa-rameters for the Earth's crust and mantle were conducted.To introduce the negative buoyancy of the subducting plate,partial eclogitization of the rocks in the collision zone was assumed.As a result,a certain combination of stiffness and density was determined for the lithosphere and mantle,which explained the peculiarities of this region.The influence of crustal and mantle earthquakes in the Pamir-Hindu Kush region on the change in background stresses in Central Asia was analyzed which are not higher than 2-3%.展开更多
Landscapes in tectonically active Hindu Kush (NW Pakistan and NE Alghanistanl result from a complex integration of the effects of vertical and horizontal crustal block motions as well as erosion and deposition proces...Landscapes in tectonically active Hindu Kush (NW Pakistan and NE Alghanistanl result from a complex integration of the effects of vertical and horizontal crustal block motions as well as erosion and deposition processes. Active tectonics in this region have greatly influenced the drainage system and geomorphic expressions. The study area is a junction of three important mt^unlain ranges (Hindu Kush-Karakorunl-Himalayas) and is thus an ideal natural laboratory to investigate the relative tectonic activity resulting from the India-Eurasia collision. We evaluate active tectonics using DEM derived drainage network and geomorphic indices hypsometric integral (Hl). stream-length gradient (SL), fractal dimension (FD), basin asymmetry factor (AF), basin shape index (B,), valley floor width to wllley height ratio (Vf) and motmtain front sinuosity (Star). The results obtained from these indices were combined to yield an index of relative active tectonics (IRAT) using GIS. The average of the seven measured geomorphic indices was used to ewfluate the distri- bution of relative tectonic activity in the study area. We defined tour classes to define the degree of rela- tive tectonic activity: class 1 very high (1.0 ≤ IRAT 〈 1.3); class 2 high (1.3 ≥ IRAT 〈 1.5): class 3--moderate (1.5 〉 IRAT 〈 1.8); and class 4--low (1.8 〉 IRAT). In view of the results, we conclude that this combined approach allows the identification of the highly deformed areas related to active tectonics. Landsat imagery and field observations also evidence the presence of active tectonics based on the deflected streams, deformed landforms, active mountain fronts and triangular facets. The indicative values of IRAT are consistent with the areas of known relative uplift rates, landforms and geology.展开更多
文摘Changes in land use cover, particularly from forest to agriculture, is a major contributing factor in increasing carbon dioxide(CO2) level in the atmosphere.Using satellite images of 1999 and 2011, land use and land use changes in the Kumrat valley KPK, Pakistan, were determined: a net decrease of 11.56 and 7.46 % occurred in forest and rangeland, while 100 % increase occurred in agriculture land(AL). Biomass in different land uses,forest land(FL), AL, and range land(RL) was determined by field inventory. From the biomass data, the amount of carbon was calculated, considering 50 % of the biomass as carbon. Soil carbon was also determined to a depth of 0–15and 16–30 cm. The average carbon stocks(C stocks) in all land uses ranged from 28.62 ± 13.8 t ha-1in AL to486.6 ± 32.4 t ha-1in pure Cedrus deodara forest. The results of the study confirmed that forest soil and vegetation stored the maximum amount of carbon followed by RL. Conversion of FL and RL to AL not only leads to total loss of about 56 %(from FL conversion) and 37 %(RL conversion) of soil carbon in the last decades but also the loss of a valuable carbon sink. In order to meet the emissions reduction obligations of the Kyoto Protocol, Conservation of forest and RL in the mountainous regions of the Hindu Kush will help Pakistan to meet its emissions reduction goals under the Kyoto Protocol.
文摘In this paper, we analyzed the long-term changes in temperature and precipitation in the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region based on climate datasets LSAT-V1.1 and CGP1.0 recently developed by the China Meteorological Administration. The analysis results show that during 1901e2014 the annual mean surface air temperature over the whole HKH has undergone a significant increasing trend. We determined the change rates in the mean temperature, mean maximum temperature, and mean minimum temperature to be 0.104 C per decade, 0.077 C per decade, and 0.176 C per decade, respectively. Most parts of the HKH have experienced a warming trend, with the largest increase occurring on the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and south of Pakistan. The trend of precipitation for the whole HKH is characterized by a slight decrease during 1901e2014. During 1961e2013, however, the trend of the annual precipitation shows a statistically significant increase, with a rate of 5.28% per decade and has a more rapid increase since the mid-1980s. Most parts of northern India and the northern TP have experienced a strong increase in the number of precipitation days (daily rainfall 1 mm), whereas Southwest China and Myanmar have experienced a declining trend in precipitation days. Compared to the trends in precipitation days, the spatial pattern of trends in the precipitation intensity seems to be more closely related to the terrain, and the higher altitude areas have shown more significant upward trends in precipitation intensity during 1961e2013.
基金partly sup-ported by the National Fundamental Science Program of China under(No.2004cb418406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.90814002)Key Projects in the National Science & Technology PillarProgram during the Eleventh Five-year Plan Period(No.2008BAC38B02-4)
文摘We employed a double-difference algorithm (hypoDD) to relocate earthquakes within the region bounded by 66°E-78°E and 32°N-42°N in the period of 1964-2003 reported by the International Seismological Center (ISC). The improved hypocentral locations delineate a double-layered Wadati-Benioff zone in the eastern Hindu Kush intermediate seismic belt. Based on this feature and other evidences, we propose that the intermediate-depth earthquakes beneath the Pamir-Hindu Kush region may occur in two collided subduction zones with opposite dip directions.
文摘Prior to the collision and accretion of the Kohistan arc terrane during the late Cretaceous and the Indian plate after the early Eocene, the southern margin of Asia along the Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Lhasa block terranes was an active Andean\|type continental margin. In south Tibet this margin was dominated by the calc\|alkaline Ladakh—Gangdese granite batholith, associated andesitic volcanic rocks and continental red\|beds. In contrast, the southern Karakoram exposes deep crustal metamorphic rocks and crustal melt leucogranites. New U\|Pb age dating from the Hunza valley and Baltoro glacier region has revealed four spatially and temporally distinct metamorphic episodes. M1 sillimanite grade metamorphism in Hunza was a late Cretaceous event, probably caused by the accretion of the Kohistan arc to Asia. M2 was the major kyanite and sillimanite grade event during late Eocene—Oligocene crustal thickening and shortening, following India\|Asia collision. Numerous melting events resulted in the formation of crustal melt granites throughout the last 50Ma with multiple generations of dykes and very large scale crustal melting along the Baltoro monzogranite\|leucogranite ba tholith during the late Oligocene—early Miocene. M3 metamorphism was a high\| T , low\| p contact thermal metamorphism around the Baltoro granite. In Hunza, younger staurolite grade metamorphism has been dated by U\|Pb monazites at 16Ma, with the Sumayar leucogranite intruded at 9 5Ma cross\|cutting the metamorphic isograds. In the Baltoro region the youngest metamorphism, M4, is the sillimanite grade Dassu gneiss core complex dated by U\|Pb on monazites as late Miocene—Pliocene (5 4±0 25)Ma with Precambrian protolith zircon cores (1855±11)Ma. Numerous gem\|bearing pegmatite dykes cross\|cut these rocks and are thought to have been intruded within the last 2~3Ma. Structural mapping, combined with U\|Pb geochronology shows that major metamorphic events can be both long\|lasting (up to 20Ma) and very restrictive, both in time and space.
文摘The Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH hereafter) region is characterized by mountainous environments and a variety of regional climatic conditions. High-altitude regions in the HKH have the recent warming amplifications, especially during the global warming hiatus period. The rapid warming cause solid state water (snow, ice, glacier, and permafrost) to shrink, leading to increase in meltwater and there have been found more frequent incidences of flash floods, landslides, livestock diseases, and other disasters in the HKH region. Increasing awareness of climate change over the HKH region is reached a consensus. Meanwhile, the HKH region is often referred to as the water towers of Asia as many highaltitude regions store its water in the form of snow and/or glacier, feeding ten major large rivers in Asia. Therefore, the impacts of climate change on water availability in these river basins have huge influences on the livelihood of large number of population, especially in downstream regions. However, the scarcity of basic hydro-meteorological observations particularly in high-altitude regions of HKH limits rigorous analysis of climate change. Most studies used reanalysis data and/or model-reconstructed products to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of hydro-meteorological processes, especially for extreme events. In this study, we review recent climate change in the HKH region, and the scientific challenges and research recommendations are suggested for this high-altitude area.
文摘Based on the outputs from 21 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) models, future changes in the mean temperature, precipitation and four climate extreme indices (annual maximum of daily maximum temperature (TXx), minimum of daily minimum temperature (TNn), annual total precipitation when the daily amount exceeds the 95th percentile of wet-day precipitation (R95p), and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation (RX5day)) over Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region are investigated under the greenhouse gas concentration pathways of RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Two periods of the 21st century, 2036e2065 and 2066e2095, are selected, with the reference period is considered as 1976e2005. Results show general increase of the mean temperature, TXx and TNn under both scenarios, with the largest increases found during 2066e2095 under RCP8.5. Future precipitation is projected to increase over most part of HKH, except for the northwestern part. Intensification of the precipitation extremes is projected over the region. The uncertainties of mean temperature, TXx and TNn over the HKH1 subregions are the largest compared to the other three subregions and the overall HKH. Besides RX5day during 2036e2065 over HKH1, the uncertainties of R95p and RX5day tend to be larger following the increase of greenhouse gas concentrations. The multimodel ensemble medians of temperature and four extreme indices under RCP8.5 are projected to be larger than those under RCP4.5 in each of the subregions.
文摘This study assessed the regional climate models (RCMs) employed in the Coordinated Regional climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) South Asia framework to investigate the qualitative aspects of future change in seasonal mean near surface air temperature and precipitation over the Hindu Kush Himalayan (HKH) region. These RCMs downscaled a subset of atmosphere ocean coupled global climate models (AOGCMs) in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) to higher 50 km spatial resolution over a large domain covering South Asia for two representation concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) future scenarios. The analysis specifically examined and evaluated multi-model and multi-scenario climate change projections over the hilly sub-regions within HKH for the near-future (2036e2065) and far-future (2066e2095) periods. The downscaled multi-RCMs provide relatively better confidence than their driving AOGCMs in projecting the magnitude of seasonal warming for the hilly sub-region within the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya, with higher projected change of 5.4 C during winter than of 4.9 C during summer monsoon season by the end of 21st century under the high-end emissions (RCP8.5) scenario. There is less agreement among these RCMs on the magnitude of the projected warming over the other sub-regions within HKH for both seasons, particularly associated with higher RCM uncertainty for the hilly sub-region within the central Himalaya. The downscaled multi-RCMs show good consensus and low RCM uncertainty in projecting that the summer monsoon precipitation will intensify by about 22% in the hilly subregion within the southeastern Himalaya and Tibetan Plateau for the far-future period under the RCP8.5 scenario. There is low confidence in the projected changes in the summer monsoon and winter season precipitation over the central Himalaya and in the Karakoram and northwestern Himalaya due to poor consensus and moderate to high RCM uncertainty among the downscaled multi-RCMs. Finally, the RCM related uncerta
基金Under the auspices of the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (No.XDA19030202)National Key Research and Development Program of China (No. 2020YFE0200800)+1 种基金International Cooperation and Exchange of National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 31761143018)National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.42071344)。
文摘The grassland in the Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH) region is one of the large st and most biodiverse mountain grassland types in the world,and its ecosystem service functions have profound impacts on the sustainable development of the HKH region.Monitoring the spatiotemporal distribution of grassland aboveground biomass(AGB) accurately and quantifying its response to climate change are indispensable sources of information for sustainably managing grassland ecosystems in the HKH region.In this study,a pure vegetation index model(PVIM) was applied to estimate the long-term dynamics of grassland AGB in the HKH region during 2000-2018.We further quantified the response of grassland AGB to climate change(temperature and precipitation) by partial correlation and variance partitioning analyses and then compared their differences with elevation.Our results demonstrated that the grassland AGB predicted by the PVIM had a good linear relationship with the ground sampling data.The grassland AGB distribution pattern showed a decreasing trend from east to west across the HKH region except in the southern Himalayas.From 2000 to 2018,the mean AGB of the HKH region increased at a rate of 1.57 g/(m~2·yr) and ranged from 252.9(2000) to 307.8 g/m~2(2018).AGB had a positive correlation with precipitation in more than 80% of the grassland,and temperature was positively correlated with AGB in approximately half of the region.The change in grassland AGB was more responsive to the cumulative effect of annual precipitation,while it was more sensitive to the change in temperature in the growing season;in addition,the influence of climate varied at different elevations.Moreover,compared with that of temperature,the contribution of precipitation to grassland AGB change was greater in approximately 60% of the grassland,but the differences in the contribution for each climate factor were small between the two temporal scales at elevations over 2000 m.An accurate assessment of the temporal and spatial distributions of grassland AGB and the quantif
文摘A large numbers of mountain communities in the Himalayan region depend on glacier-fed kuhl system – gravity flow irrigation, for their sustenance. The depletion and retreat of glaciers often result in disruption of melt flows to kuhl system, which ultimately impacts the agriculture as well as livelihood of the local communities. Sustainability of glacial resource was assessed for establishing kuhl irrigation system based on indices of glacier decrease by number(GDN) and glacier depletion by volume(GDV) during the 2001-2013 period. The selected factors are important in terms of understanding point source and reserve potential of glaciers for sustaining glacier-fed kuhl irrigation in this region. The sustainability of glaciers was found good(i.e. a least decrease or rather increase in glacier number and volume) in about 23.6% glaciers(ice reserves about 705.9 km^3) under >10 km^2 area class of glaciers mainly in Gilgit and Shigar river basins of the Karakoram range. In the 5–10 km^2 class of glaciers, sustainability was good in 49 glaciers(ice reserve 26.59 km^3) and under 1–5 km^2 class, in 558 glaciers(ice reserve 60.189 km^3). Overall sustainability of glaciers appears to prevail in the Karakoram basins. The lesser sustainability of glaciers in the Himalaya basins like Astore and Jhelum would apparently be compensated by monsoon and change in rainfall pattern. A regular monitoring of the glacier resource and utilizing advance water conservation techniques would help in coping with negative impacts of downwasting of glaciers and provide long-term support to kuhl irrigation system in the Himalayan region in future.
文摘In the alpine regions of Hindu Kush,Himalayas and Karakorum, climatic and topographic conditions can support the formation of peat,important for the livelihood of the local communities,and ecological services alike. These peatlands are a source of fuel for the local community, habitat for nesting birds, and water regulation at source for rivers.Ground-based surveys of high-altitude peatlands are not only difficult, but also expensive and time consuming. Therefore, a method using cost-effective remote sensing technology is required. In this article we assessed the distribution and extent of highaltitude peatlands in a 2000 ha area of Broghil Valley using Landsat 8 data. The composite image was trained using a priori knowledge of the area, and classified into peatland and non-peatland land covers using a supervised decision tree algorithm. The Landsat-based classification map was compared with field data collected with a differential GPS. This comparison suggests 82% overall accuracy, which is fairly high for high altitude areas. The method was successfully applied and has the potential to be replicated for other areas in Pakistan and the highaltitude regions of the neighbouring Asian countries.
文摘The Hindu Kush Himalaya is the highest mountainous andplateau system in the world, sitting on most of the world'shighest peaks over 8000 m in height (Fig. 1). This regionencompasses an area of more than 4.3 million km2 and is characterized by a diversity of physiographic landscapes, climate types and bio-systems, the largest cryosphere in the world beyond the two poles, and being the source of a number of highly important large rivers including the Brahmaputra, Ganges, Indus, Mekong, Yangtze, and Yellow Rivers. The HKH is populated by about 210 million people and an additional 1.3 billion people live in downstream basins of the ten large rivers originating from this region.
文摘Hindukush is an active subduction zone where at least one earthquake occurs on daily basis.For seismic hazard studies,it is important to develop a local magnitude scale using the data of local seismic network.We have computed local magnitude scale for Hindukush earthquakes using data from local network belonging to Center for Earthquake Studies(CES)for a period of three years,i.e.2015–2017.A total of 26,365 seismic records pertaining to 2,683 earthquakes with magnitude 2.0 and greater,was used with hypocentral distance less than 600 km.Magnitude scale developed by using this data comes to be M_(L)=logA+0.929logr+0.00298r-1.84.The magnitude determined through formulated relation was compared with that of standard relation for Southern California and relation developed by the same authors for local network for Northern Punjab.It was observed that Hindukush region has high attenuation as compared to that of Southern California and Northern Punjab which implies that Hindukush is tectonically more disturbed as compared to the said regions,hence,seismically more active as well.We have calculated station correction factors for our network.Station correction factors do not show any pattern which probably owes to the geological and tectonic complexity of this structure.Standard deviation and variance of magnitude residuals for CES network determined using Hutton and Boore scale and scale developed in this study were compared,it showed that a variance reduction of 44.1%was achieved.Average of magnitude residuals for different distance ranges was almost zero which showed that our magnitude scale was stable for all distances up to 600 km.Newly developed magnitude scale will help in homogenization of earthquake catalog.It has been observed that b-value of CES catalog decreases when magnitude is calculated by using newly developed magnitude scale.
基金No specific funding was received for this research.However,the work of RM,UK and DAG was funded by the Federal Ministry of Education and Research of Germany(BMBF)under the project AECO(number 01Kl1717)part of the National Research Network on Zoonotic Infectious Diseases of Germany.
文摘Asia and its Hindu Kush Himalayan(HKH)region is particularly vulnerable to environmental change,especially climate and land use changes further influenced by rapid population growth,high level of poverty and unsustainable development.Asia has been a hotspot of dengue fever and chikungunya mainly due to its dense human population,unplanned urbanization and poverty.In an urban cycle,dengue virus(DENV)and chikungunya virus(CHIKV)are transmitted by Aedes aegypti and Ae.albopictus mosquitoes which are also competent vectors of Zika virus(ZIKV).Over the last decade,DENV and CHIKV transmissions by Ae.aegypti have extended to the Himalayan countries of Bhutan and Nepal and ZIKV could follow in the footsteps of these viruses in the HKH region.The already established distribution of human-biting Aedes mosquito vectors and a naïve population with lack of immunity against ZIKV places the HKH region at a higher risk of ZIKV.Some of the countries in the HKH region have already reported ZIKV cases.We have documented an increasing threat of ZIKV in Asia and its HKH region because of the high abundance and wide distribution of human-biting mosquito vectors,climate change,poverty,report of indigenous cases in the region,increasing numbers of imported cases and a naïve population with lack of immunity against ZIKV.An outbreak anywhere is potentially a threat everywhere.Therefore,in order to ensure international health security,all efforts to prevent,detect,and respond to ZIKV ought to be intensified now in Asia and its HKH region.To prepare for possible ZIKV outbreaks,Asia and the HKH region can also learn from the success stories and strategies adopted by other regions and countries in preventing ZIKV and associated complications.The future control strategies for DENV,CHIKV and ZIKV should be considered in tandem with the threat to human well-being that is posed by other emerging and re-emerging vector-borne and zoonotic diseases,and by the continuing urgent need to strengthen public primary healthcare systems in the region.
文摘Globally,mountains are often characterized as fragile and hazardous terrains,with vast areas covered by the cryosphere.The livelihoods of communities in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region are closely linked with the cryosphere.But over the past few decades,communities in the region have experienced multiple changes,including those driven by climat e change,with direct and immediate impacts on their lives and livelihoods.In this study,we explore linkages between the cryosphere and high-mountain livelihoods using a social-ecological system approach.It examines how the complex social-ecological system in villages in Langtang Valley,Nepal,has evolved in response to both cryospheric and socioeconomic changes.The local communities perceive gradual but significant changes in the cryospheric system,such as receding and thinning glaciers,changing snowfall patterns,changes in temperature and precipitation patterns,and a growing incidence of cryosphere-related hazards,such as avalanches and landslides.Communities in the Langtang Valley are also facing a number of socioeconomic changes,resulting in changing aspirations,particularly among the youth.The growing disconnection between society and the surrounding cryosphere,with direct impacts on the transfer and growth of local knowledge systems,are discussed.These simultaneous changes in the cryosphere and the socioeconomic domain have also resulted in a homogenization of livelihood sources,with tourism emerging as the dominant source of livelihood.This has resulted in a dependence of the local population on food imported from outside the valley.A growing dependence on tourism for livelihoods,dependence on imports for food and other basic needs,and the lack of a risk reduction strategy might pose great risks for local lives and livelihoods in the long run.Interventions pertaining to diversifying livelihoods,harmonizing social capital,and hazard risk assessment are essential for strengthening linkages between cryosphere and the socioeconomic system.
基金jointly supported by National 985 Platform construction project,China Geological Survey(Grant No.12120114002211)National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant No.41230206)a fund of the Graduate School of the China University of Geosciences for visiting and conducting research abroad。
文摘The Pamir-Hindu Kush region at the western end of the Himalayan-Tibet orogen is one of the most active regions on the globe with strong seismicity and deformation and provides a window to evaluate continental collision linked to two intra-continental subduction zones with different polarities.The seismicity and seismic tomography data show a steep northward subducting slab beneath the Hindu Kush and southward subducting slab under the Pamir.Here,we collect seismic catalogue with 3988 earthquake events to compute seismicity images and waveform data from 926 earthquake events to invert focal mechanism solutions and stress field with a view to characterize the subducting slabs under the Pamir-Hindu Kush region.Our results define two distinct seismic zones:a steep one beneath the Hindu Kush and a broad one beneath the Pamir.Deep and intermediate-depth earthquakes are mainly distributed in the Hindu Kush region which is controlled by thrust faulting,whereas the Pamir is dominated by strike-slip stress regime with shallow and intermediate-depth earthquakes.The area where the maximum principal stress axis is vertical in the southern Pamir corresponds to the location of a highconductivity low-velocity region that contributes to the seismogenic processes in this region.We interpret the two distinct seismic zones to represent a double-sided subduction system where the Hindu Kush zone represents the northward subduction of the Indian plate,and the Pamir zone shows southward subduction of the Eurasian plate.A transition fault is inferred in the region between the Hindu Kush and the Pamir which regulates the opposing directions of motion of the Indian and Eurasian plates.
基金This work was supported by grants from the Ministry of Inno-vation of Uzbekistan(No.8-007 and No.20170918111).
文摘The current stress state of the Earth's crust in Central Asia depends entirely on the interaction of the Eurasian plate with the Indian and Arabian plates.Moreover,an essential role in this action is played by the subduction process in the Pamir-Hind Kush zone.In this region,deep earthquakes and anomalies in seismic velocities indicate subduction of the Indian Plate.To determine the effect of earthquakes on the stress state of the Earth's crust in Central Asia,we analyzed the hypocenters according to the available data over a hundred years.Taking the envelope of the hypocenters as the surface of the subducted indenter,we analyzed its penetration into the mantle.Instead of the pushing force of the indenter,the velocity of the Indian plate is taken into consideration.A model of the stresses is constructed on the equations of creeping motion of a viscous incompressible fluid.The stress variation in the Earth's crust and mantle was calculated as the stress difference before and after the earthquake.The mechanism of earthquakes is modelled by an introduction of equivalent volume forces in the equilibrium equations corresponding to a couple dipoles without a moment.The equations of creeping motion are numerically solved using boundary element methods.Numerical experiments with different physical model pa-rameters for the Earth's crust and mantle were conducted.To introduce the negative buoyancy of the subducting plate,partial eclogitization of the rocks in the collision zone was assumed.As a result,a certain combination of stiffness and density was determined for the lithosphere and mantle,which explained the peculiarities of this region.The influence of crustal and mantle earthquakes in the Pamir-Hindu Kush region on the change in background stresses in Central Asia was analyzed which are not higher than 2-3%.
基金Financial support to Syed Amer Mahmood from University of the Punjab,Lahore Government of Pakistan Remote Sensing GroupTU Freiberg,Germanypartial support from German Academic Exchange Association(DAAD)International Association of Mathematical Geosciences(IAMG)
文摘Landscapes in tectonically active Hindu Kush (NW Pakistan and NE Alghanistanl result from a complex integration of the effects of vertical and horizontal crustal block motions as well as erosion and deposition processes. Active tectonics in this region have greatly influenced the drainage system and geomorphic expressions. The study area is a junction of three important mt^unlain ranges (Hindu Kush-Karakorunl-Himalayas) and is thus an ideal natural laboratory to investigate the relative tectonic activity resulting from the India-Eurasia collision. We evaluate active tectonics using DEM derived drainage network and geomorphic indices hypsometric integral (Hl). stream-length gradient (SL), fractal dimension (FD), basin asymmetry factor (AF), basin shape index (B,), valley floor width to wllley height ratio (Vf) and motmtain front sinuosity (Star). The results obtained from these indices were combined to yield an index of relative active tectonics (IRAT) using GIS. The average of the seven measured geomorphic indices was used to ewfluate the distri- bution of relative tectonic activity in the study area. We defined tour classes to define the degree of rela- tive tectonic activity: class 1 very high (1.0 ≤ IRAT 〈 1.3); class 2 high (1.3 ≥ IRAT 〈 1.5): class 3--moderate (1.5 〉 IRAT 〈 1.8); and class 4--low (1.8 〉 IRAT). In view of the results, we conclude that this combined approach allows the identification of the highly deformed areas related to active tectonics. Landsat imagery and field observations also evidence the presence of active tectonics based on the deflected streams, deformed landforms, active mountain fronts and triangular facets. The indicative values of IRAT are consistent with the areas of known relative uplift rates, landforms and geology.