以IGS发布的电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)数据为样本,利用时间序列分析进行预报。将TEC时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项的组合,并利用相关系数和偏相关系数确定模型阶数。对IGS提供的2008年TEC数据进行预报分析...以IGS发布的电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)数据为样本,利用时间序列分析进行预报。将TEC时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项的组合,并利用相关系数和偏相关系数确定模型阶数。对IGS提供的2008年TEC数据进行预报分析,结果表明,采用时间序列分析能达到较高精度,预报7 d时的平均相对精度为87.75%,预报精度大于60%的预报值占所有预报值的95%以上,预报精度大于85%的预报值占所有预报值的72.6%,95.3%的预报残差小于±3 TECU。展开更多
Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics,...Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics, providing information essential to understanding the variations in the ionosphere and its processes. Selected recent studies on solar activity effects of the ionosphere are briefly reviewed in this report. This report focuses on (1) observations of solar irradiance at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths and the outstanding problems of solar proxies, in the view of ionospheric studies, (2) new findings and improved representations of the features of the solar activity dependence of ionospheric key parameters and the corresponding physical processes, (3) possible phenomena in the ionosphere under extremely high and low solar activity conditions that are unique, as indicated by historical solar datasets and the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24, and (4) statistical studies and model simulations of the ionosphere response to solar flares. The above-mentioned studies provide new clues for comprehensively explaining basic processes in the ionosphere and improving the prediction capability of ionospheric models and related applications.展开更多
文摘以IGS发布的电离层总电子含量(total electron content,TEC)数据为样本,利用时间序列分析进行预报。将TEC时间序列分解为趋势项、周期项和随机项的组合,并利用相关系数和偏相关系数确定模型阶数。对IGS提供的2008年TEC数据进行预报分析,结果表明,采用时间序列分析能达到较高精度,预报7 d时的平均相对精度为87.75%,预报精度大于60%的预报值占所有预报值的95%以上,预报精度大于85%的预报值占所有预报值的72.6%,95.3%的预报残差小于±3 TECU。
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40725014)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories
文摘Solar radiation, which varies over multiple temporal scales, modulates remarkably the evolution of the ionosphere. The solar activity dependence of the ionosphere is a key and fundamental issue in ionospheric physics, providing information essential to understanding the variations in the ionosphere and its processes. Selected recent studies on solar activity effects of the ionosphere are briefly reviewed in this report. This report focuses on (1) observations of solar irradiance at X-ray and extreme ultraviolet wavelengths and the outstanding problems of solar proxies, in the view of ionospheric studies, (2) new findings and improved representations of the features of the solar activity dependence of ionospheric key parameters and the corresponding physical processes, (3) possible phenomena in the ionosphere under extremely high and low solar activity conditions that are unique, as indicated by historical solar datasets and the deep solar minimum of solar cycle 23/24, and (4) statistical studies and model simulations of the ionosphere response to solar flares. The above-mentioned studies provide new clues for comprehensively explaining basic processes in the ionosphere and improving the prediction capability of ionospheric models and related applications.
