The geological characteristics and production practices of the major middle-and high-maturity shale oil exploration areas in China are analyzed.Combined with laboratory results,it is clear that three essential conditi...The geological characteristics and production practices of the major middle-and high-maturity shale oil exploration areas in China are analyzed.Combined with laboratory results,it is clear that three essential conditions,i.e.economic initial production,commercial cumulative oil production of single well,and large-scale recoverable reserves confirmed by the testing production,determine whether the continental shale oil can be put into large-scale commercial development.The quantity and quality of movable hydrocarbons are confirmed to be crucial to economic development of shale oil,and focuses in evaluation of shale oil enrichment area/interval.The evaluation indexes of movable hydrocarbon enrichment include:(1)the material basis for forming retained hydrocarbon,including TOC>2%(preferentially 3%-4%),and typeⅠ-Ⅱkerogens;(2)the mobility of retained hydrocarbon,which is closely related to the hydrocarbon composition and flow behaviors of light/heavy components,and can be evaluated from the perspectives of thermal maturity(Ro),gas-oil ratio(GOR),crude oil density,quality of hydrocarbon components,preservation conditions;and(3)the reservoir characteristics associated with the engineering reconstruction,including the main pore throat distribution zone,reservoir physical properties(including fractures),lamellation feature and diagenetic stage,etc.Accordingly,13 evaluation indexes in three categories and their reference values are established.The evaluation indicates that the light shale oil zones in the Gulong Sag of Songliao Basin have the most favorable enrichment conditions of movable hydrocarbons,followed by light oil and black oil zones,containing 20.8×10^(8) t light oil resources in reservoirs with R_(0)>1.2%,pressure coefficient greater than 1.4,effective porosity greater than 6%,crude oil density less than 0.82 g/cm^(3),and GOR>100 m/m^(3).The shale oil in the Gulong Sag can be explored and developed separately by the categories(resource sweet spot,engineering sweet spot,and tight oil sweet spot)depending on展开更多
An interval linear traffic planning model is developed for supporting vehicle emissions limited under uncertainty. The interval linear traffic planning model can address uncertainties of traffic system and vehicle emi...An interval linear traffic planning model is developed for supporting vehicle emissions limited under uncertainty. The interval linear traffic planning model can address uncertainties of traffic system and vehicle emissions related to system costs and limitation of emission. The interval linear traffic planning model is applicable to complex traffic system. One virtual city as our study object was taken by using the interval linear traffic planning model. In this study, one virtual case and a scenario are provided for three planning periods. The results indicate that the interval linear traffic planning model can effectively reduce the vehicles emission and provide strategies for authorities to deal with problems of transportation system.展开更多
The active power loop flow(APLF)may be caused by impropriate network configuration,impropriate parameter settings,and/or stochastic bus powers.The power flow controllers,e.g.,the unified power flow controller(UPFC),ma...The active power loop flow(APLF)may be caused by impropriate network configuration,impropriate parameter settings,and/or stochastic bus powers.The power flow controllers,e.g.,the unified power flow controller(UPFC),may be the reason and the solution to the loop flows.In this paper,the critical existence condition of the APLF is newly integrated into the simultaneous power flow model for the system and UPFC.Compared with the existing method of alternatively solving the simultaneous power flow and sensitivity-based approaching to the critical existing condition,the integrated power flow needs less iterations and calculation time.Besides,with wind power fluctuation,the interval power flow(IPF)is introduced into the integrated power flow,and solved with the affine Krawcyzk iteration to make sure that the range of active power setting of the UPFC not yielding the APLF.Compared with Monte Carlo simulation,the IPF has the similar accuracy but less time.展开更多
To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger f...To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger flows.First,bus and metro data are processed and matched by association to construct the basis for public transport trip chain extraction.Second,a reasonable matching threshold method to discriminate the transfer relationship is used to extract the public transport trip chain,and the basic characteristics of the trip based on the trip chain are analyzed to obtain the metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow.Third,to address the problem of low accuracy of point prediction,the DeepAR model is proposed to conduct interval prediction,where the input is the interchange passenger flow,the output is the predicted median and interval of passenger flow,and the prediction scenarios are weekday,non-workday,and weekday morning and evening peaks.Fourth,to reduce the prediction error,a combined particle swarm optimization(PSO)-DeepAR model is constructed using the PSO to optimize the DeepAR model.Finally,data from the Beijing Xizhimen subway station are used for validation,and results show that the PSO-DeepAR model has high prediction accuracy,with a 90%confidence interval coverage of up to 93.6%.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(U22B6004)the PetroChina Research Institute of Petroleum Exploration&Development Project(2022yjcq03).
文摘The geological characteristics and production practices of the major middle-and high-maturity shale oil exploration areas in China are analyzed.Combined with laboratory results,it is clear that three essential conditions,i.e.economic initial production,commercial cumulative oil production of single well,and large-scale recoverable reserves confirmed by the testing production,determine whether the continental shale oil can be put into large-scale commercial development.The quantity and quality of movable hydrocarbons are confirmed to be crucial to economic development of shale oil,and focuses in evaluation of shale oil enrichment area/interval.The evaluation indexes of movable hydrocarbon enrichment include:(1)the material basis for forming retained hydrocarbon,including TOC>2%(preferentially 3%-4%),and typeⅠ-Ⅱkerogens;(2)the mobility of retained hydrocarbon,which is closely related to the hydrocarbon composition and flow behaviors of light/heavy components,and can be evaluated from the perspectives of thermal maturity(Ro),gas-oil ratio(GOR),crude oil density,quality of hydrocarbon components,preservation conditions;and(3)the reservoir characteristics associated with the engineering reconstruction,including the main pore throat distribution zone,reservoir physical properties(including fractures),lamellation feature and diagenetic stage,etc.Accordingly,13 evaluation indexes in three categories and their reference values are established.The evaluation indicates that the light shale oil zones in the Gulong Sag of Songliao Basin have the most favorable enrichment conditions of movable hydrocarbons,followed by light oil and black oil zones,containing 20.8×10^(8) t light oil resources in reservoirs with R_(0)>1.2%,pressure coefficient greater than 1.4,effective porosity greater than 6%,crude oil density less than 0.82 g/cm^(3),and GOR>100 m/m^(3).The shale oil in the Gulong Sag can be explored and developed separately by the categories(resource sweet spot,engineering sweet spot,and tight oil sweet spot)depending on
文摘An interval linear traffic planning model is developed for supporting vehicle emissions limited under uncertainty. The interval linear traffic planning model can address uncertainties of traffic system and vehicle emissions related to system costs and limitation of emission. The interval linear traffic planning model is applicable to complex traffic system. One virtual city as our study object was taken by using the interval linear traffic planning model. In this study, one virtual case and a scenario are provided for three planning periods. The results indicate that the interval linear traffic planning model can effectively reduce the vehicles emission and provide strategies for authorities to deal with problems of transportation system.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51877061).
文摘The active power loop flow(APLF)may be caused by impropriate network configuration,impropriate parameter settings,and/or stochastic bus powers.The power flow controllers,e.g.,the unified power flow controller(UPFC),may be the reason and the solution to the loop flows.In this paper,the critical existence condition of the APLF is newly integrated into the simultaneous power flow model for the system and UPFC.Compared with the existing method of alternatively solving the simultaneous power flow and sensitivity-based approaching to the critical existing condition,the integrated power flow needs less iterations and calculation time.Besides,with wind power fluctuation,the interval power flow(IPF)is introduced into the integrated power flow,and solved with the affine Krawcyzk iteration to make sure that the range of active power setting of the UPFC not yielding the APLF.Compared with Monte Carlo simulation,the IPF has the similar accuracy but less time.
基金The National Key Research and Development Program of China(No.2019YFB160-0200)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71871011,71890972/71890970)。
文摘To accurately analyze the fluctuation range of time-varying differences in metro-to-bus transfer passenger flows,the application of a probabilistic interval prediction model is proposed to predict transfer passenger flows.First,bus and metro data are processed and matched by association to construct the basis for public transport trip chain extraction.Second,a reasonable matching threshold method to discriminate the transfer relationship is used to extract the public transport trip chain,and the basic characteristics of the trip based on the trip chain are analyzed to obtain the metro-to-bus transfer passenger flow.Third,to address the problem of low accuracy of point prediction,the DeepAR model is proposed to conduct interval prediction,where the input is the interchange passenger flow,the output is the predicted median and interval of passenger flow,and the prediction scenarios are weekday,non-workday,and weekday morning and evening peaks.Fourth,to reduce the prediction error,a combined particle swarm optimization(PSO)-DeepAR model is constructed using the PSO to optimize the DeepAR model.Finally,data from the Beijing Xizhimen subway station are used for validation,and results show that the PSO-DeepAR model has high prediction accuracy,with a 90%confidence interval coverage of up to 93.6%.
