As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Conside...As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Considering a dynamic system that is composed of normal, deteriorating and unreliable components, this paper proposes an integrated approach to perform real-time reliability prediction for such a class of systems. For a deteriorating component, the degradation is modeled by a time-varying fault process which is a linear or approximately linear function of time. The behavior of an unreliable component is described by a random variable which has two possible values corresponding to the operating and malfunction conditions of this component. The whole proposed approach contains three algorithms. A modified interacting multiple model particle filter is adopted to estimate the dynamic system＇s state variables and the unmeasurable time-varying fault. An exponential smoothing algorithm named the Holt＇s method is used to predict the fault process. In the end, the system＇s reliability is predicted in real time by use of the Monte Carlo strategy. The proposed approach can effectively predict the impending failure of a dynamic system, which is verified by computer simulations based on a three-vessel water tank system.展开更多
Predicting heartbeat message arrival time is crucial for the quality of failure detection service over intemet. However, intemet dynamic characteristics make it very difficult to understand message behavior and accura...Predicting heartbeat message arrival time is crucial for the quality of failure detection service over intemet. However, intemet dynamic characteristics make it very difficult to understand message behavior and accurately predict heartbeat arrival time. To solve this problem, a novel black-box model is proposed to predict the next heartbeat arrival time. Heartbeat arrival time is modeled as auto-regressive process, heartbeat sending time is modeled as exogenous variable, the model＇ s coefficients are estimated based on the sliding window of observations and this result is used to predict the next heartbeat arrival time. Simulation shows that this adaptive auto-regressive exogenous （ARX） model can accurately capture heartbeat arrival dynamics and minimize prediction error in different network environments.展开更多
基金Supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2009CB320602, 2010CB731800)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 60721003, 60736026)
文摘As an important technology for predictive maintenance, failure prognosis has attracted more and more attentions in recent years. Real-time reliability prediction is one effective solution to failure prognosis. Considering a dynamic system that is composed of normal, deteriorating and unreliable components, this paper proposes an integrated approach to perform real-time reliability prediction for such a class of systems. For a deteriorating component, the degradation is modeled by a time-varying fault process which is a linear or approximately linear function of time. The behavior of an unreliable component is described by a random variable which has two possible values corresponding to the operating and malfunction conditions of this component. The whole proposed approach contains three algorithms. A modified interacting multiple model particle filter is adopted to estimate the dynamic system＇s state variables and the unmeasurable time-varying fault. An exponential smoothing algorithm named the Holt＇s method is used to predict the fault process. In the end, the system＇s reliability is predicted in real time by use of the Monte Carlo strategy. The proposed approach can effectively predict the impending failure of a dynamic system, which is verified by computer simulations based on a three-vessel water tank system.
基金the National Basic Research Program of China(No.2003CB314806)China Next Generation Intemet Project(CNGI-04-6-2T)
文摘Predicting heartbeat message arrival time is crucial for the quality of failure detection service over intemet. However, intemet dynamic characteristics make it very difficult to understand message behavior and accurately predict heartbeat arrival time. To solve this problem, a novel black-box model is proposed to predict the next heartbeat arrival time. Heartbeat arrival time is modeled as auto-regressive process, heartbeat sending time is modeled as exogenous variable, the model＇ s coefficients are estimated based on the sliding window of observations and this result is used to predict the next heartbeat arrival time. Simulation shows that this adaptive auto-regressive exogenous （ARX） model can accurately capture heartbeat arrival dynamics and minimize prediction error in different network environments.
