We analyzed the errors associated with forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity from 2010-2012 in the western North Pacifi c region made by seven operational numerical weather prediction models. The results show th...We analyzed the errors associated with forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity from 2010-2012 in the western North Pacifi c region made by seven operational numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the forecast error is signifi cantly related to the initial error as well as the initial TC intensity, size, and translation speed. Other factors highly related to the forecast error include the environmental sea surface pressure, vertical wind shear and maximum potential intensity. We used stepwise regression to set up model forecast error estimation equations, which were used to calibrate the model output. Independent experiments showed that the calibrated model forecasts have signifi cant skill compared to the original model output. Finally, a multimodel consensus forecast technique for TC intensity was developed based on the calibrated model output;this technique has 28%(15-20%) skill at 12 h(24-72 h) compared to the climatology and persistence forecasts of TC intensity. This consensus technique has greater skill than the consensus forecast based on the original model output and therefore it has the potential to be applied in operation.展开更多
In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.Thi...In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China (2015CB452806)China’s Special Program for Research in the Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (GYHY201506007, GYHY201406010)
文摘We analyzed the errors associated with forecasts of tropical cyclone(TC) intensity from 2010-2012 in the western North Pacifi c region made by seven operational numerical weather prediction models. The results show that the forecast error is signifi cantly related to the initial error as well as the initial TC intensity, size, and translation speed. Other factors highly related to the forecast error include the environmental sea surface pressure, vertical wind shear and maximum potential intensity. We used stepwise regression to set up model forecast error estimation equations, which were used to calibrate the model output. Independent experiments showed that the calibrated model forecasts have signifi cant skill compared to the original model output. Finally, a multimodel consensus forecast technique for TC intensity was developed based on the calibrated model output;this technique has 28%(15-20%) skill at 12 h(24-72 h) compared to the climatology and persistence forecasts of TC intensity. This consensus technique has greater skill than the consensus forecast based on the original model output and therefore it has the potential to be applied in operation.
基金supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (2009CB421505)the Shanghai Typhoon Foundation (2009ST09)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (40775060)the Program of China Mete-orological Administration (GYHY201006008 and GYHY200906002)
文摘In this study,six intensity forecast guidance techniques from the East China Regional Meteorological Center are verified for the 2008 and 2009 typhoon seasons through an alternative forecast verification technique.This technique is used to verify intensity forecasts if those forecasts call for a typhoon to dissipate or if the real typhoon dissipates.Using a contingency table,skill scores,chance,and probabilities are computed.It is shown that the skill of the six tropical cyclone intensity guidance techniques was highest for the 12-h forecasts,while the lowest skill of all the six models did not occur in 72-h forecasting.For both the 2008 and 2009 seasons,the average probabilities of the forecast intensity having a small error(6 m s-1) tended to decrease steadily.Some of the intensity forecasts had small skill scores,but the associated probabilities of the forecast intensity errors > 15 m s-1 were not the highest.
