区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货...区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货运整体规划模型的设计与开发方法。利用PECAS(Production,Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)理论框架分析生产者、消费者、交换商品、土地(空间)和运输方式之间的交互关系,并通过PECAS的集计经济流表设计模型结构,构建相应的宏观经济预测、社会经济活动空间分配、空间开发以及交通运输需求预测这4个模块,模拟区域社会经济活动增长及其空间分布与土地/空间开发及综合交通需求时变等特征之间的互动耦合关系。在社会经济发展目标、土地空间和环境等约束条件下,通过构建空间经济模型和综合交通一体化网络分配模型,实现面向多货品和多方式的综合货运整体规划建模方法,以辅助区域产业布局、土地利用与综合交通系统的整体规划。本文以长江经济带为研究案例,基于相关数据构建相应的大区域综合货运整体规划模型,分析评估2012—2035年模型预测结果。结果显示,预测得到的综合交通年平均日货运量拟合优度超过85%,分担率误差低于1%,验证了本文建模方法的有效性。展开更多
There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major in...There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major input to a transportation model; conversely, transportation model output can provide a critical input to a land use model. The connection between the two models can be achieved by an accessibility measure. This paper presents an iterative approach to solving a regression-based land use model and a transportation model with combined trip distribution- assignment. A case study using data from a small urban area is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed modeling framework. Tests show that the procedures can converge, and the modeling framework can be a valuable tool for planners and decision-makers in evaluating land use policies and transportation investment strategies.展开更多
Land-cover changes cause a loss of natural vegetation in many parts of the world. In the Xishuangbanna （西双版纳） district （Yunnan （云南） Province）, rubber plantations replace tropical rainforests covering alrea...Land-cover changes cause a loss of natural vegetation in many parts of the world. In the Xishuangbanna （西双版纳） district （Yunnan （云南） Province）, rubber plantations replace tropical rainforests covering already an area of about 10% of the study area （2007）. There, land-use allocation is mostly driven by economic considerations. Thus, local planning authorities need decision support for land-use planning issues, which integrate socio-economic and ecological aspects. Within the NabanFrame, an agro-economic, ecological and social model was applied, which, altogether, interacted with a land allocation model via defined interfaces. Effects on the water cycle, ecological conditions as well as socio-economic should be considered by integrating the spatially distributed rainfali-runoff and water balance model AKWA-M in the model setup.展开更多
文摘区域一体化快速发展背景下,如何系统谋划区域综合交通运输规划,使经济、土地/空间及交通与环境协调发展,是实现区域可持续发展亟需深入研究的课题。因此,本文统筹考虑经济、土地/空间及交通和环境要素的动态交互关系,提出大区域综合货运整体规划模型的设计与开发方法。利用PECAS(Production,Exchange and Consumption Allocation System)理论框架分析生产者、消费者、交换商品、土地(空间)和运输方式之间的交互关系,并通过PECAS的集计经济流表设计模型结构,构建相应的宏观经济预测、社会经济活动空间分配、空间开发以及交通运输需求预测这4个模块,模拟区域社会经济活动增长及其空间分布与土地/空间开发及综合交通需求时变等特征之间的互动耦合关系。在社会经济发展目标、土地空间和环境等约束条件下,通过构建空间经济模型和综合交通一体化网络分配模型,实现面向多货品和多方式的综合货运整体规划建模方法,以辅助区域产业布局、土地利用与综合交通系统的整体规划。本文以长江经济带为研究案例,基于相关数据构建相应的大区域综合货运整体规划模型,分析评估2012—2035年模型预测结果。结果显示,预测得到的综合交通年平均日货运量拟合优度超过85%,分担率误差低于1%,验证了本文建模方法的有效性。
文摘There has been increasing interests in developing land use models for small urban areas for various planning applications such as air quality conformity analysis. The output of a land use model can serve as a major input to a transportation model; conversely, transportation model output can provide a critical input to a land use model. The connection between the two models can be achieved by an accessibility measure. This paper presents an iterative approach to solving a regression-based land use model and a transportation model with combined trip distribution- assignment. A case study using data from a small urban area is presented to illustrate the application of the proposed modeling framework. Tests show that the procedures can converge, and the modeling framework can be a valuable tool for planners and decision-makers in evaluating land use policies and transportation investment strategies.
基金supported by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Science (BMBF) (No. 0330797A)
文摘Land-cover changes cause a loss of natural vegetation in many parts of the world. In the Xishuangbanna （西双版纳） district （Yunnan （云南） Province）, rubber plantations replace tropical rainforests covering already an area of about 10% of the study area （2007）. There, land-use allocation is mostly driven by economic considerations. Thus, local planning authorities need decision support for land-use planning issues, which integrate socio-economic and ecological aspects. Within the NabanFrame, an agro-economic, ecological and social model was applied, which, altogether, interacted with a land allocation model via defined interfaces. Effects on the water cycle, ecological conditions as well as socio-economic should be considered by integrating the spatially distributed rainfali-runoff and water balance model AKWA-M in the model setup.
