Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to e...Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to each of these groups. For the general public, effective risk communication requires that technical information be translated to first gain attention and build understanding of risk, and then continue to be exchanged by all parties. The World Meteorological Organization and its partner agencies have recognised this need for translated information by moving away from warnings describing risks solely in terms of meteorological parameters and towards clearer messaging emphasizing significance and potential impacts. While the move towards more relatable weather warning messaging is a positive one, risk communication is a complex, dynamic and interactive process that is highly dependent on audience psychology, knowledge, skills, and capabilities; presenting at once difficulties and opportunities for agencies. Over recent years, advertisers, politicians and public safety advocates have all improved their messaging through the use of big data, psychology, social networking and behavioural economics principles, yet the links between these elements and weather risk communication are still relatively immature. This report aims to build links between weather forecasters, social scientists and related industries by outlining three conceptual models social scientists have developed to meet different challenges in the field of risk communication; the mental models approach, risk information seeking and processing, and the protective action decision making model. Recent issues and successes in the communication of tropical cyclone risk will then be examined and compared to these models, and future opportunities will be discussed.展开更多
The two most common types of disasters caused by natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region are floods and storms,many of them associated with typhoon(tropical cyclone)related impacts.To improve the capacity of typhoo...The two most common types of disasters caused by natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region are floods and storms,many of them associated with typhoon(tropical cyclone)related impacts.To improve the capacity of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction so as to maximum reduce the losses of people’s life and properties,the decision makers and the public are imminently demanding the information of the targeted impact caused by typhoon.As the front line in hydro-meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation against the typhoon-related disasters,National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)in TC Members have recognized that forecasting impact became more important than forecasting pure causing-disaster elements.Impact-based forecasting signals an evolution from“what the weather will be”to“what the weather will do”.Many things change as impact based forecasts evolve from previous weather forecasts.To enhance impact-based typhoon forecasting,the Typhoon Committee added it into the new updated Strategic Plan 2022–2026.This paper briefed generally the concept of impact based forecasting,introduced the implementation and progresses on typhoon impact based forecasting in TC Members in recent years,and initially discussed the measures and direction for enhancement of impact-based typhoon forecasting and early warning services in future.展开更多
This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire b...This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences,and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather.The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone.Instead,they are reactions to the experience of impacts,for example,an increased number of missions or emergency calls.Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making.Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade.While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment,verified by ground truth,observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations.The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services,the weather service,and other organizations to integrate weather information,impacts,and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.展开更多
构建了一种新型文献检索系统,能够摘要一篇文献中引起读者研究工作关注的那些内容,并返回读者对这些内容的评论,从而帮助用户快速了解该文献的学术价值及不足之处等重要信息。利用文献间的引用关系从其他文献中找到指向一篇文献的评论...构建了一种新型文献检索系统,能够摘要一篇文献中引起读者研究工作关注的那些内容,并返回读者对这些内容的评论,从而帮助用户快速了解该文献的学术价值及不足之处等重要信息。利用文献间的引用关系从其他文献中找到指向一篇文献的评论上下文,借鉴查询-检索模式,将评论转化为一元语言模型所生成的查询,并将原文献划分为句子所构成的文档集,基于KL-divergence检索模型找到原文献中与评论对应的句子。选取得分最高的若干句子构成体现原文献对外影响的摘要。系统基于北京大学研制的智能搜索引擎平台Platform for Applying,Researching And Developing Intelligent Search Engine(PARADISE),具有快速构建可扩展好的优点。展开更多
A numerical study on violent liquid sloshing phenomenon in a partially filled rectangular container is carried out by using moving particle semi-implicit（MPS） method. The present study deals with the implementation ...A numerical study on violent liquid sloshing phenomenon in a partially filled rectangular container is carried out by using moving particle semi-implicit（MPS） method. The present study deals with the implementation of five modifications all together over the original MPS method. The modifications include improved source terms for pressure Poisson equation, special approximation technique for the representation of gradient differential operator, collective action of mixed free surface particle identification boundary conditions, effecting Neumann boundary condition on solving the PPE and fixing judiciously the parting distance among particles to prevent collision. The suitability of the kernel function used in the original MPS method along with these five modifications is investigated for violent sloshing problems. The present model ensures a good agreement between numerical results with the existing experimental observations. The model is successfully applied to a partially filled tank undergoing horizontal sinusoidal excitation to compute the sloshing wave amplitudes and pressure on tank walls. The assessment of dynamic behaviour manifested in terms of base shear, overturning moment and impact pressure load exerted on tank ceiling induced by violent sloshing motion using MPS method is not reported in the open literature and has been efficiently carried out in the present study.展开更多
文摘Traditionally, meteorological agencies collect, analyse, and share technical information about natural hazards with emergency services organisations and community members; often sending different warning products to each of these groups. For the general public, effective risk communication requires that technical information be translated to first gain attention and build understanding of risk, and then continue to be exchanged by all parties. The World Meteorological Organization and its partner agencies have recognised this need for translated information by moving away from warnings describing risks solely in terms of meteorological parameters and towards clearer messaging emphasizing significance and potential impacts. While the move towards more relatable weather warning messaging is a positive one, risk communication is a complex, dynamic and interactive process that is highly dependent on audience psychology, knowledge, skills, and capabilities; presenting at once difficulties and opportunities for agencies. Over recent years, advertisers, politicians and public safety advocates have all improved their messaging through the use of big data, psychology, social networking and behavioural economics principles, yet the links between these elements and weather risk communication are still relatively immature. This report aims to build links between weather forecasters, social scientists and related industries by outlining three conceptual models social scientists have developed to meet different challenges in the field of risk communication; the mental models approach, risk information seeking and processing, and the protective action decision making model. Recent issues and successes in the communication of tropical cyclone risk will then be examined and compared to these models, and future opportunities will be discussed.
文摘The two most common types of disasters caused by natural hazards in the Asia-Pacific region are floods and storms,many of them associated with typhoon(tropical cyclone)related impacts.To improve the capacity of typhoon-related disaster risk reduction so as to maximum reduce the losses of people’s life and properties,the decision makers and the public are imminently demanding the information of the targeted impact caused by typhoon.As the front line in hydro-meteorological disaster prevention and mitigation against the typhoon-related disasters,National Meteorological and Hydrological Services(NMHSs)in TC Members have recognized that forecasting impact became more important than forecasting pure causing-disaster elements.Impact-based forecasting signals an evolution from“what the weather will be”to“what the weather will do”.Many things change as impact based forecasts evolve from previous weather forecasts.To enhance impact-based typhoon forecasting,the Typhoon Committee added it into the new updated Strategic Plan 2022–2026.This paper briefed generally the concept of impact based forecasting,introduced the implementation and progresses on typhoon impact based forecasting in TC Members in recent years,and initially discussed the measures and direction for enhancement of impact-based typhoon forecasting and early warning services in future.
基金This research network of universities,research institutes,and the Deutscher Wetterdienst is funded by the BMVI(Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructure).
文摘This article presents the results of a series of ethnographic observations at the Berlin fire brigade control and dispatch center during routine and severe weather situations.The weather-related challenges of a fire brigade lie between the anticipation of events and their potential consequences,and the ad hoc reactions to actual impacts of weather.The results show that decisions and actions related to high impact weather are not necessarily motivated by weather warnings alone.Instead,they are reactions to the experience of impacts,for example,an increased number of missions or emergency calls.Impacts are the main trigger for the decision making.Weather is one additional external factor that influences the operational capability of a fire brigade.While commanding officers in a fire brigade control and dispatch center experience weather primarily through technical equipment,verified by ground truth,observations showed that direct personal contact with the regional weather service and colleagues on the ground takes on a greater role in actual severe weather situations.The observations point to the need for increased interagency communication between the emergency services,the weather service,and other organizations to integrate weather information,impacts,and non-weather-related tasks into coherent weather-related decision making.
文摘构建了一种新型文献检索系统,能够摘要一篇文献中引起读者研究工作关注的那些内容,并返回读者对这些内容的评论,从而帮助用户快速了解该文献的学术价值及不足之处等重要信息。利用文献间的引用关系从其他文献中找到指向一篇文献的评论上下文,借鉴查询-检索模式,将评论转化为一元语言模型所生成的查询,并将原文献划分为句子所构成的文档集,基于KL-divergence检索模型找到原文献中与评论对应的句子。选取得分最高的若干句子构成体现原文献对外影响的摘要。系统基于北京大学研制的智能搜索引擎平台Platform for Applying,Researching And Developing Intelligent Search Engine(PARADISE),具有快速构建可扩展好的优点。
基金project SR/S3/MERC0078/2010 funded by Department of Science and Technology, Government of India under its R & D schemethe intense support of DST, New Delhi
文摘A numerical study on violent liquid sloshing phenomenon in a partially filled rectangular container is carried out by using moving particle semi-implicit（MPS） method. The present study deals with the implementation of five modifications all together over the original MPS method. The modifications include improved source terms for pressure Poisson equation, special approximation technique for the representation of gradient differential operator, collective action of mixed free surface particle identification boundary conditions, effecting Neumann boundary condition on solving the PPE and fixing judiciously the parting distance among particles to prevent collision. The suitability of the kernel function used in the original MPS method along with these five modifications is investigated for violent sloshing problems. The present model ensures a good agreement between numerical results with the existing experimental observations. The model is successfully applied to a partially filled tank undergoing horizontal sinusoidal excitation to compute the sloshing wave amplitudes and pressure on tank walls. The assessment of dynamic behaviour manifested in terms of base shear, overturning moment and impact pressure load exerted on tank ceiling induced by violent sloshing motion using MPS method is not reported in the open literature and has been efficiently carried out in the present study.
