An existing Bayesian flood frequency analysis method is applied to quantile estimation for Pearson type three (P-III) probability distribution. The method couples prior and sample information under the framework of Ba...An existing Bayesian flood frequency analysis method is applied to quantile estimation for Pearson type three (P-III) probability distribution. The method couples prior and sample information under the framework of Bayesian formula, and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach is used to estimate posterior distributions of parameters. Different from the original sampling algorithm (i.e. the important sampling) used in the existing approach, we use the adaptive metropolis (AM) sampling technique to generate a large number of parameter sets from Bayesian parameter posterior distributions in this paper. Consequently, the sampling distributions for quantiles or the hydrological design values are constructed. The sampling distributions of quantiles are estimated as the Bayesian method can provide not only various kinds of point estimators for quantiles, e.g. the expectation estimator, but also quantitative evaluation on uncertainties of these point estimators. Therefore, the Bayesian method brings more useful information to hydrological frequency analysis. As an example, the flood extreme sample series at a gauge are used to demonstrate the procedure of application.展开更多
On the basis of exponential Gamma distribution, this paper presents a model consisting of 11 kinds of distribution curves for the first time. The model contains several frequency curves used commonly in China and othe...On the basis of exponential Gamma distribution, this paper presents a model consisting of 11 kinds of distribution curves for the first time. The model contains several frequency curves used commonly in China and other countries, for example, Pearson type-3 distribution, Kritsky and Menkel (USSR) distribution, Logarithmic normal distribution, and so on. Through dealing with parameters, the model may be applicable to the hydrological extreme values of different climate regions, and has very strong flexibility. In this paper, a real case study using flood datum of 240 different hydrological stations in China is submitted and the calculating results are satisfactory.展开更多
利用西太平洋冬季海洋综合调查获取的数据资料,分析了第二岛链以东附近海域冬季温度、盐度、声速和密度的分布特征和变化规律。使用Ocean Data View海洋数据软件对资料进行网格化处理,同时采用Wilson方法和垂直梯度法计算声速和声速梯...利用西太平洋冬季海洋综合调查获取的数据资料,分析了第二岛链以东附近海域冬季温度、盐度、声速和密度的分布特征和变化规律。使用Ocean Data View海洋数据软件对资料进行网格化处理,同时采用Wilson方法和垂直梯度法计算声速和声速梯度。分析数据结果表明:第二岛链以东附近海域冬季温度随深度增加而减小,且750m以浅变化幅度较大;而盐度和声速的垂直结构特征均表现为从表层向下先减小后增大,但各自存在不同的临界深度。海区存在温度和声速双跃层结构,上跃层强度大,厚度小;下跃层强度较小,厚度较大。展开更多
基金supported by the National Basic Research Pro-gram of China ("973" Program) (Grant No. 2007CB714104)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 50779013)
文摘An existing Bayesian flood frequency analysis method is applied to quantile estimation for Pearson type three (P-III) probability distribution. The method couples prior and sample information under the framework of Bayesian formula, and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling approach is used to estimate posterior distributions of parameters. Different from the original sampling algorithm (i.e. the important sampling) used in the existing approach, we use the adaptive metropolis (AM) sampling technique to generate a large number of parameter sets from Bayesian parameter posterior distributions in this paper. Consequently, the sampling distributions for quantiles or the hydrological design values are constructed. The sampling distributions of quantiles are estimated as the Bayesian method can provide not only various kinds of point estimators for quantiles, e.g. the expectation estimator, but also quantitative evaluation on uncertainties of these point estimators. Therefore, the Bayesian method brings more useful information to hydrological frequency analysis. As an example, the flood extreme sample series at a gauge are used to demonstrate the procedure of application.
基金This paper is financially supported by the State Key Foundation Planning Project (Grant No. G1999043602).
文摘On the basis of exponential Gamma distribution, this paper presents a model consisting of 11 kinds of distribution curves for the first time. The model contains several frequency curves used commonly in China and other countries, for example, Pearson type-3 distribution, Kritsky and Menkel (USSR) distribution, Logarithmic normal distribution, and so on. Through dealing with parameters, the model may be applicable to the hydrological extreme values of different climate regions, and has very strong flexibility. In this paper, a real case study using flood datum of 240 different hydrological stations in China is submitted and the calculating results are satisfactory.
文摘利用西太平洋冬季海洋综合调查获取的数据资料,分析了第二岛链以东附近海域冬季温度、盐度、声速和密度的分布特征和变化规律。使用Ocean Data View海洋数据软件对资料进行网格化处理,同时采用Wilson方法和垂直梯度法计算声速和声速梯度。分析数据结果表明:第二岛链以东附近海域冬季温度随深度增加而减小,且750m以浅变化幅度较大;而盐度和声速的垂直结构特征均表现为从表层向下先减小后增大,但各自存在不同的临界深度。海区存在温度和声速双跃层结构,上跃层强度大,厚度小;下跃层强度较小,厚度较大。
