This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcast...This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the cross-calibrated multi-platform （CCMP） reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields, compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data.展开更多
Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast s...Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP.Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.展开更多
本文基于1980—2005年ENSEMBLES(Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impact)季节—年际多模式历史回报数据和20世纪耦合季节预测(CSF-20C)回报数据的月平均海温、地表气温、降水、风场及位势高度场资料,利用依...本文基于1980—2005年ENSEMBLES(Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impact)季节—年际多模式历史回报数据和20世纪耦合季节预测(CSF-20C)回报数据的月平均海温、地表气温、降水、风场及位势高度场资料,利用依赖月份的集合成员间奇异值分解方法研究了北大西洋海温异常影响东亚气候的两种途径。结果表明,春、夏季热带北大西洋海温暖异常与西南风异常密切耦合,暖中心由春至夏季加强西移,该暖海温异常能够激发东传的Kelvin,造成夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋显著增强,促进了中南半岛北部、日本南部及我国南方大部的降水增长。而中高纬度北大西洋海温在春季呈现东北暖、西南冷的偶极子型异常,该海温异常通过与风场的强烈耦合,激发了遥相关波列,影响乌拉尔山阻塞高压及东亚大槽,造成东北亚地区的低压异常,导致了朝鲜半岛、日本大部及我国东部的气温降低。展开更多
A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM...A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM） provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme （TKE） and an improved land process model （LPM）. The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model＇s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast （1991-2000） for summer （June-August）, the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a 展开更多
A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization sc...A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984-2003 and the period 1997-2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.展开更多
The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was ev...The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.展开更多
To research the relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperature ( Tss), 5 cores of living Porites lutea were collected from the Xisha Islands and the southern Hainan Island waters and measured. The ...To research the relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperature ( Tss), 5 cores of living Porites lutea were collected from the Xisha Islands and the southern Hainan Island waters and measured. The results of the study show that there is an obviously positive correlation between the coral growth rates and the Tss records from the northern part of South China Sea. The annual growth rates of the five samples of Porites lutea during the past 100 a are in the range of 7-15 mm/a, and their mean value is 11 mm/a. The correlation coefficients between the coral growth rates and the Tss records from the waters during 1961-1993 are in the range of 0. 77-0.89. As a result, a thermometer of the coral growth rate is established. A hindcasting Tss in the waters from 1993 to 1961 has been obtained with an error of about 0.12-0.17℃ . Based upon the calculated result, the rising rate of Tss in the northern part of South China Sea during the past 100 a is 0. 20℃ , which is higher than that of the air temperature in China (0.09℃/100 a), but lower than that of the global temperature and that of Tss in the tropical western Pacific Ocean.展开更多
We performed long-term wind-wave hindcast in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea from the year 1988 to 2002, and then analyzed the regional wave climate. Comparisons between model results and satellite data are generally...We performed long-term wind-wave hindcast in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea from the year 1988 to 2002, and then analyzed the regional wave climate. Comparisons between model results and satellite data are generally consistent on monthly mean significant wave height. Then we discuss the temporal and spatial characteristics of the climatological monthly mean significant wave heights and mean wave periods. The climatologically spatial patterns are observed as increasing from northwest to southeast and from offshore to deep-water area for both significant wave height and mean wave period, and the patterns are highly related to the wind forcing and local topography. Seasonal variations of wave parameters are also significant. Furthermore, we compute the extreme values of wind and significant wave height using statistical methods. Results reveal the spatial patterns of N-year return significant wave height in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea, and we discuss the relationship between extreme values of significant wave height and wind forcing.展开更多
Based on an intermediate coupled model （ICM）, a probabilistic ensemble prediction system （EPS） has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ...Based on an intermediate coupled model （ICM）, a probabilistic ensemble prediction system （EPS） has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ensemble conditions, and a linear, first-order Markov-Chain SST anomaly error model is embedded into the EPS to provide model-error perturbations. In this study, we perform ENSO retrospective forecasts over the 120 year period 1886-2005 using the EPS with 100 ensemble members and with initial conditions obtained by only assimilating historic SST anomaly observations. By examining the retrospective ensemble forecasts and available observations, the verification results show that the skill of the ensemble mean of the EPS is greater than that of a single deterministic forecast using the same ICM, with a distinct improvement of both the correlation and root mean square （RMS） error between the ensemble-mean hindcast and the deterministic scheme over the 12-month prediction period. The RMS error of the ensemble mean is almost 0.2℃ smaller than that of the deterministic forecast at a lead time of 12 months. The probabilistic skill of the EPS is also high with the predicted ensemble following the SST observations well, and the areas under the relative operating characteristic （ROC） curves for three different ENSO states （warm events, cold events, and neutral events） are all above 0.55 out to 12 months lead time. However, both deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of the EPS show an interdecadal variation. For the deterministic skill, there is high skill in the late 19th century and in the middle-late 20th century （which includes some artificial skill due to the model training period）, and low skill during the period from 1906 to 1961. For probabilistic skill, for the three different ENSO states, there is still a similar interdecadal variation of ENSO probabilistic predictability during the period 1886~2005. There is high skill in the late 19th century from 1886 to 1905, 展开更多
It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tia...It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently.展开更多
Wave parameters, such as wave height and wave period, are important for human activities, such as navigation, ocean engineering and sediment transport, etc. In this study, wave data from six buoys around Chinese water...Wave parameters, such as wave height and wave period, are important for human activities, such as navigation, ocean engineering and sediment transport, etc. In this study, wave data from six buoys around Chinese waters, are used to assess the quality of wave height and wave period in the ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Annual hourly data with temporal resolution are used. The difference between the significant wave height(SWH) of ERA 5 and that of the buoy varies from-0.35 m to 0.30 m for the three shallow locations;for the three deep locations, the variation ranges from-0.09 m to 0.09 m. The ERA5 SWH data show positive biases, indicating an overall overestimation for all locations, except for E2 and S1 where underestimation is observed. During the tropical cyclone period, a large(about 32%) underestimation of the maximum SWH in the ERA5 data is observed. Hence, the ERA5 SWH data cannot be used for design applications without site-specific validation. The difference between the annual wave period from ERA5 and the mean wave period from the buoys varies from-1.31 s to 0.4 s. Inter-comparisons suggest that the ERA5 dataset is consistent with the annual mean SWH. However, for the average period, the performance is not good, and half of the correlation coefficients in the four points are less 50%. Overall, the deep water area simulation effect is better than that in the shallow water.展开更多
A group of seasonal hindcast experiments are conducted using a coupled model known as the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Modelgamil1.11 (FGOALS-g1.11) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical M...A group of seasonal hindcast experiments are conducted using a coupled model known as the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Modelgamil1.11 (FGOALS-g1.11) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG).Two steps are included in our ElNi o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast experiments.The first step is to integrate the coupled GCM with the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) strongly nudged towards the observation from 1971 to 2006.The second step is to remove the SST nudging term.The authors carried out a one-year hindcast by adopting the initial values from SST nudging experiments from the first step on January 1st,April 1st,July 1st,and October 1st from 1982 to 2005.In the SST nudging experiment,the model can reproduce the observed equatorial thermocline anomalies and zonal wind stress anomalies in the Pacific,which demonstrates that the SST nudging approach can provide realistic atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions for seasonal prediction experiments.The model also demonstrates a high Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) score for SST in most of the tropical Pacific,Atlantic Ocean,and some Indian Ocean regions with a 3-month lead.Compared with the persistence ACC score,this model shows much higher ACC scores for the Ni o-3.4 index for a 9-month lead.展开更多
中国气象局S2S(Sub-seasonal to Seasonal)数据归档中心建设是中国气象局承担世界气象组织(WMO)的世界天气研究计划(WWRP)和世界气候研究计划(WCRP)任务,由国家气象信息中心负责设计和实现。该文介绍了S2S数据归档中心建设中涉及的数据...中国气象局S2S(Sub-seasonal to Seasonal)数据归档中心建设是中国气象局承担世界气象组织(WMO)的世界天气研究计划(WWRP)和世界气候研究计划(WCRP)任务,由国家气象信息中心负责设计和实现。该文介绍了S2S数据归档中心建设中涉及的数据交换、数据检查及处理、数据归档存储及数据服务门户全流程系统设计和实现。针对各业务中心生产的S2S数据配置差异较大造成数据交换、同步较难这一问题,采用基于FTP(file transfer protocol)的数据推送和基于ECMWF(European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)WebAPI主动数据下载相结合的方式,说明数据交换、同步方法和策略。由于S2S数据量巨大难以高效管理服务,已设计统一的数据组织形式和存储规则,实现根据数据检索条件解析获取数据存储位置,提供便捷的数据检索下载服务。自2015年11月15日中国气象局S2S数据门户系统对外开放,目前数据门户系统已有超过18个国家的300个用户注册并下载数据。展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grants No.51309092 and 51379072)the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry of the Ministry of Water Resources of China(Grant No.201201045)+1 种基金the Natural Science Fund for Colleges and Universities in Jiangsu Province(Grant No.BK20130833)the Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities(Grants No.2015B16014 and 2013B03414)
文摘This paper presents a study on the improvement of wind field hindcasts for two typical tropical cyclones, i.e., Fanapi and Meranti, which occurred in 2010. The performance of the three existing models for the hindcasting of cyclone wind fields is first examined, and then two modification methods are proposed to improve the hindcasted results. The first one is the superposition method, which superposes the wind field calculated from the parametric cyclone model on that obtained from the cross-calibrated multi-platform （CCMP） reanalysis data. The radius used for the superposition is based on an analysis of the minimum difference between the two wind fields. The other one is the direct modification method, which directly modifies the CCMP reanalysis data according to the ratio of the measured maximum wind speed to the reanalyzed value as well as the distance from the cyclone center. Using these two methods, the problem of underestimation of strong winds in reanalysis data can be overcome. Both methods show considerable improvements in the hindcasting of tropical cyclone wind fields, compared with the cyclone wind model and the reanalysis data.
基金jointly supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.42192562 and 42030605)。
文摘Using monthly observations and ensemble hindcasts of the Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Climate Forecast System(NUIST-CFS1.0) for the period 1983–2020, this study investigates the forecast skill of marine heatwaves(MHWs) over the globe and the predictability sources of the MHWs over the tropical oceans. The MHW forecasts are demonstrated to be skillful on seasonal-annual time scales, particularly in tropical oceans. The forecast skill of the MHWs over the tropical Pacific Ocean(TPO) remains high at lead times of 1–24 months, indicating a forecast better than random chance for up to two years. The forecast skill is subject to the spring predictability barrier of El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO). The forecast skills for the MHWs over the tropical Indian Ocean(TIO), tropical Atlantic Ocean(TAO), and tropical Northwest Pacific(NWP) are lower than that in the TPO. A reliable forecast at lead times of up to two years is shown over the TIO, while a shorter reliable forecast window(less than 17 months) occurs for the TAO and NWP.Additionally, the forecast skills for the TIO, TAO, and NWP are seasonally dependent. Higher skills for the TIO and TAO appear in boreal spring, while a greater skill for the NWP emerges in late summer-early autumn. Further analyses suggest that ENSO serves as a critical source of predictability for MHWs over the TIO and TAO in spring and MHWs over the NWP in summer.
文摘本文基于1980—2005年ENSEMBLES(Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and their Impact)季节—年际多模式历史回报数据和20世纪耦合季节预测(CSF-20C)回报数据的月平均海温、地表气温、降水、风场及位势高度场资料,利用依赖月份的集合成员间奇异值分解方法研究了北大西洋海温异常影响东亚气候的两种途径。结果表明,春、夏季热带北大西洋海温暖异常与西南风异常密切耦合,暖中心由春至夏季加强西移,该暖海温异常能够激发东传的Kelvin,造成夏季西北太平洋异常反气旋显著增强,促进了中南半岛北部、日本南部及我国南方大部的降水增长。而中高纬度北大西洋海温在春季呈现东北暖、西南冷的偶极子型异常,该海温异常通过与风场的强烈耦合,激发了遥相关波列,影响乌拉尔山阻塞高压及东亚大槽,造成东北亚地区的低压异常,导致了朝鲜半岛、日本大部及我国东部的气温降低。
文摘A nested regional climate model has been experimentally used in the seasonal prediction at the China National Climate Center （NCC） since 2001. The NCC/IAP （Institute of Atmospheric Physics） T63 coupled GCM （CGCM） provides the boundary and initial conditions for driving the regional climate model （RegCM_NCC）. The latter has a 60-km horizontal resolution and improved physical parameterization schemes including the mass flux cumulus parameterization scheme, the turbulent kinetic energy closure scheme （TKE） and an improved land process model （LPM）. The large-scale terrain features such as the Tibetan Plateau are included in the larger domain to produce the topographic forcing on the rain-producing systems. A sensitivity study of the East Asian climate with regard to the above physical processes has been presented in the first part of the present paper. This is the second part, as a continuation of Part Ⅰ. In order to verify the performance of the nested regional climate model, a ten-year simulation driven by NCEP reanalysis datasets has been made to explore the performance of the East Asian climate simulation and to identify the model＇s systematic errors. At the same time, comparative simulation experiments for 5 years between the RegCM2 and RegCM_NCC have been done to further understand their differences in simulation performance. Also, a ten-year hindcast （1991-2000） for summer （June-August）, the rainy season in China, has been undertaken. The preliminary results have shown that the RegCM_NCC is capable of predicting the major seasonal rain belts. The best predicted regions with high anomaly correlation coefficient （ACC） are located in the eastern part of West China, in Northeast China and in North China, where the CGCM has maximum prediction skill as well. This fact may reflect the importance of the largescale forcing. One significant improvement of the prediction derived from RegCM_NCC is the increase of ACC in the Yangtze River valley where the CGCM has a very low, even a
基金The research was supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China （Grant Nos. 60225015, 40233033, and 40221503）.
文摘A simple method for initializing intermediate coupled models （ICMs） using only sea surface temperature （SST） anomaly data is comprehensively tested in two sets of hindcasts with a new ICM. In the initialization scheme, both the magnitude of the nudging parameter and the duration of the assimilation are considered, and initial conditions for both atmosphere and ocean are generated by running the coupled model with SST anomalies nudged to the observations. A comparison with the observations indicates that the scheme can generate realistic thermal fields and surface dynamic fields in the equatorial Pacific through hindcast experiments. An ideal experiment is performed to get the optimal nudging parameters which include the nudging intensity and nudging time length. Twelve-month-long hindcast experiments are performed with the model over the period 1984-2003 and the period 1997-2003. Compared with the original prediction results, the model prediction skills are significantly improved by the nudging method especially beyond a 6-month lead time during the two different periods. Potential problems and further improvements are discussed regarding the new coupled assimilation system.
基金supported by the Major State Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program,Grant No. 2009CB421406)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41130103 and 40821092)+1 种基金the Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology,Grant No. GYHY200906018)the Norwegian Research Council "East Asia DecCen"Project
文摘The interannual variability of East Asian winter monsoon （EAWM） circulation from the Development of a European Multi-Model Ensemble （MME） System for Seasonal to Inter-Annual Prediction （DEMETER） hindcasts was evaluated against observation reanalysis data. We evaluated the DEMETER coupled general circulation models （CGCMs）＇ retrospective prediction of the typical EAWM and its associated atmospheric circulation. Results show that the EAWM can be reasonably predicted with statistically significant accuracy, yet the major bias of the hindcast models is the underestimation of the related anomalies. The temporal correlation coefficient （TCC） of the MME-produced EAWM index, defined as the first EOF mode of 850- hPa air temperature within the EAWM domain （20^-60~N, 90^-150~E）, was 0.595. This coefficient was higher than those of the corresponding individual models （range： 0.39-0.51） for the period 1969 2001; this result indicates the advantage of the super-ensemble approach. This study also showed that the ensemble models can reasonably reproduce the major modes and their interannual variabilities for sea level pressure, geopotential height, surface air temperature, and wind fields in Eurasia. Therefore, the prediction of EAWM interannual variability is feasible using multimodel ensemble systems and that they may also reveal the associated mechanisms of the EAWM interannual variability.
基金Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Multidesciplinary Oceanographic Expedition Team of Chinese Academy of Sciences to the Nansha Islands
文摘To research the relationship between coral growth rate and sea surface temperature ( Tss), 5 cores of living Porites lutea were collected from the Xisha Islands and the southern Hainan Island waters and measured. The results of the study show that there is an obviously positive correlation between the coral growth rates and the Tss records from the northern part of South China Sea. The annual growth rates of the five samples of Porites lutea during the past 100 a are in the range of 7-15 mm/a, and their mean value is 11 mm/a. The correlation coefficients between the coral growth rates and the Tss records from the waters during 1961-1993 are in the range of 0. 77-0.89. As a result, a thermometer of the coral growth rate is established. A hindcasting Tss in the waters from 1993 to 1961 has been obtained with an error of about 0.12-0.17℃ . Based upon the calculated result, the rising rate of Tss in the northern part of South China Sea during the past 100 a is 0. 20℃ , which is higher than that of the air temperature in China (0.09℃/100 a), but lower than that of the global temperature and that of Tss in the tropical western Pacific Ocean.
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China under contract Nos 41476021 and 41321004the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences under contract No.XDA11010104the project of Indo-Pacific Ocean Environment Variation and Air-sea Interaction under contract No.GASI-IPOVAI-04
文摘We performed long-term wind-wave hindcast in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea from the year 1988 to 2002, and then analyzed the regional wave climate. Comparisons between model results and satellite data are generally consistent on monthly mean significant wave height. Then we discuss the temporal and spatial characteristics of the climatological monthly mean significant wave heights and mean wave periods. The climatologically spatial patterns are observed as increasing from northwest to southeast and from offshore to deep-water area for both significant wave height and mean wave period, and the patterns are highly related to the wind forcing and local topography. Seasonal variations of wave parameters are also significant. Furthermore, we compute the extreme values of wind and significant wave height using statistical methods. Results reveal the spatial patterns of N-year return significant wave height in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea, and we discuss the relationship between extreme values of significant wave height and wind forcing.
基金supported by the Chinese Academy of Science (Grant No. KZCX2-YW-202)National Basic Research Program of China (2006CB403600)National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40437017 and 40805033).
文摘Based on an intermediate coupled model （ICM）, a probabilistic ensemble prediction system （EPS） has been developed. The ensemble Kalman filter （EnKF） data assimilation approach is used for generating the initial ensemble conditions, and a linear, first-order Markov-Chain SST anomaly error model is embedded into the EPS to provide model-error perturbations. In this study, we perform ENSO retrospective forecasts over the 120 year period 1886-2005 using the EPS with 100 ensemble members and with initial conditions obtained by only assimilating historic SST anomaly observations. By examining the retrospective ensemble forecasts and available observations, the verification results show that the skill of the ensemble mean of the EPS is greater than that of a single deterministic forecast using the same ICM, with a distinct improvement of both the correlation and root mean square （RMS） error between the ensemble-mean hindcast and the deterministic scheme over the 12-month prediction period. The RMS error of the ensemble mean is almost 0.2℃ smaller than that of the deterministic forecast at a lead time of 12 months. The probabilistic skill of the EPS is also high with the predicted ensemble following the SST observations well, and the areas under the relative operating characteristic （ROC） curves for three different ENSO states （warm events, cold events, and neutral events） are all above 0.55 out to 12 months lead time. However, both deterministic and probabilistic prediction skills of the EPS show an interdecadal variation. For the deterministic skill, there is high skill in the late 19th century and in the middle-late 20th century （which includes some artificial skill due to the model training period）, and low skill during the period from 1906 to 1961. For probabilistic skill, for the three different ENSO states, there is still a similar interdecadal variation of ENSO probabilistic predictability during the period 1886~2005. There is high skill in the late 19th century from 1886 to 1905,
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40631005, 40620130113 and 40505017)
文摘It is of great social and scientific importance and also very difficult to make reliable prediction for dust weather frequency (DWF) in North China. In this paper, the correlation between spring DWF in Beijing and Tianjin observation stations, taken as examples in North China, and seasonally averaged surface air temperature, precipitation, Arctic Oscillation, Antarctic Oscillation, South Oscillation, near surface meridional wind and Eurasian westerly index is respectively calculated so as to construct a prediction model for spring DWF in North China by using these climatic factors. Two prediction models, i.e. model-I and model-II, are then set up respectively based on observed climate data and the 32-year (1970 -2001) extra-seasonal hindcast experiment data as reproduced by the nine-level Atmospheric General Circulation Model developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP9L-AGCM). It is indicated that the correlation coefficient between the observed and predicted DWF reaches 0.933 in the model-I, suggesting a high prediction skill one season ahead. The corresponding value is high up to 0.948 for the subsequent model-II, which involves synchronous spring climate data reproduced by the IAP9L-AGCM relative to the model-I. The model-II can not only make more precise prediction but also can bring forward the lead time of real-time prediction from the model-I’s one season to half year. At last, the real-time predictability of the two models is evaluated. It follows that both the models display high prediction skill for both the interannual variation and linear trend of spring DWF in North China, and each is also featured by different advantages. As for the model-II, the prediction skill is much higher than that of original approach by use of the IAP9L-AGCM alone. Therefore, the prediction idea put forward here should be popularized in other regions in China where dust weather occurs frequently.
基金supported by National Key R&D Program of China(No.2018YFB1501901)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.51909114)+2 种基金the Major Research Grant(Nos.U1806227 and U1906231)from the Natural Science Foundation of China and the Provincial Natural Science Foundation of Shandongthe Open Research Fund of the Key Laboratory of Ocean Circulation and Waves,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.KLOCW1901)the Open Research Fund of State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography,South China Sea Institute of Oceanology,Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.LTO1905).
文摘Wave parameters, such as wave height and wave period, are important for human activities, such as navigation, ocean engineering and sediment transport, etc. In this study, wave data from six buoys around Chinese waters, are used to assess the quality of wave height and wave period in the ERA5 reanalysis of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Annual hourly data with temporal resolution are used. The difference between the significant wave height(SWH) of ERA 5 and that of the buoy varies from-0.35 m to 0.30 m for the three shallow locations;for the three deep locations, the variation ranges from-0.09 m to 0.09 m. The ERA5 SWH data show positive biases, indicating an overall overestimation for all locations, except for E2 and S1 where underestimation is observed. During the tropical cyclone period, a large(about 32%) underestimation of the maximum SWH in the ERA5 data is observed. Hence, the ERA5 SWH data cannot be used for design applications without site-specific validation. The difference between the annual wave period from ERA5 and the mean wave period from the buoys varies from-1.31 s to 0.4 s. Inter-comparisons suggest that the ERA5 dataset is consistent with the annual mean SWH. However, for the average period, the performance is not good, and half of the correlation coefficients in the four points are less 50%. Overall, the deep water area simulation effect is better than that in the shallow water.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40675049,No.40523001)NBRP (National Basic Research Program) "Ocean-Atmosphere Interaction over the Joining Area of Asia and Indian-Pacific Ocean (AIPO) and Its Impact on the Short-Term Climate Variation in China" (2006CB403605)
文摘A group of seasonal hindcast experiments are conducted using a coupled model known as the Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System Modelgamil1.11 (FGOALS-g1.11) developed at the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG).Two steps are included in our ElNi o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) hindcast experiments.The first step is to integrate the coupled GCM with the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) strongly nudged towards the observation from 1971 to 2006.The second step is to remove the SST nudging term.The authors carried out a one-year hindcast by adopting the initial values from SST nudging experiments from the first step on January 1st,April 1st,July 1st,and October 1st from 1982 to 2005.In the SST nudging experiment,the model can reproduce the observed equatorial thermocline anomalies and zonal wind stress anomalies in the Pacific,which demonstrates that the SST nudging approach can provide realistic atmospheric and oceanic initial conditions for seasonal prediction experiments.The model also demonstrates a high Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) score for SST in most of the tropical Pacific,Atlantic Ocean,and some Indian Ocean regions with a 3-month lead.Compared with the persistence ACC score,this model shows much higher ACC scores for the Ni o-3.4 index for a 9-month lead.
文摘中国气象局S2S(Sub-seasonal to Seasonal)数据归档中心建设是中国气象局承担世界气象组织(WMO)的世界天气研究计划(WWRP)和世界气候研究计划(WCRP)任务,由国家气象信息中心负责设计和实现。该文介绍了S2S数据归档中心建设中涉及的数据交换、数据检查及处理、数据归档存储及数据服务门户全流程系统设计和实现。针对各业务中心生产的S2S数据配置差异较大造成数据交换、同步较难这一问题,采用基于FTP(file transfer protocol)的数据推送和基于ECMWF(European Center for Medium-range Weather Forecasts)WebAPI主动数据下载相结合的方式,说明数据交换、同步方法和策略。由于S2S数据量巨大难以高效管理服务,已设计统一的数据组织形式和存储规则,实现根据数据检索条件解析获取数据存储位置,提供便捷的数据检索下载服务。自2015年11月15日中国气象局S2S数据门户系统对外开放,目前数据门户系统已有超过18个国家的300个用户注册并下载数据。
