Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity ana...Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on （1） a screening method （Morris） for qualitative ranking of parameters, and （2） a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model （RSMSobol）. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters＇ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model （RSM） were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.展开更多
With the development of computer technology and numerical simulation technology, computer aided engineering (CAE) technology has been widely applied to many fields. One of the main obstacles, which hinder the further ...With the development of computer technology and numerical simulation technology, computer aided engineering (CAE) technology has been widely applied to many fields. One of the main obstacles, which hinder the further application of CAE technology, is how to successfully identify the parameters of the selected model. An elementary framework for parameter identification of a complex model is provided in this paper. The framework includes the construction of objective function, the design of the optimization method and the evaluation of the identified results, etc. The parameter identification process is described in this framework, taking the parameter identification of the superplastic constitutive model considering grain growth for Ti-6Al-4V at 927°C as an example. The objective function is the weighted quadratic sums of the difference between the experimental and computational data for the stress-strain relationship and the grain growth relationship; the designed optimization method is a hybrid global optimization method, which is based on the feature of the objective function and incorporates the strengths of genetic algorithm (GA), the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and the augmented Gauss-Newton algorithm. The reliability evaluation of parameter identification result is made through the comparison between the calculated and experimental results and between the theoretical values of the parameters and the identified ones.展开更多
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41271003)the National Basic Research Program of China (Grants No. 2010CB428403 and 2010CB951103)
文摘Parameter identification, model calibration, and uncertainty quantification are important steps in the model-building process, and are necessary for obtaining credible results and valuable information. Sensitivity analysis of hydrological model is a key step in model uncertainty quantification, which can identify the dominant parameters, reduce the model calibration uncertainty, and enhance the model optimization efficiency. There are, however, some shortcomings in classical approaches, including the long duration of time and high computation cost required to quantitatively assess the sensitivity of a multiple-parameter hydrological model. For this reason, a two-step statistical evaluation framework using global techniques is presented. It is based on （1） a screening method （Morris） for qualitative ranking of parameters, and （2） a variance-based method integrated with a meta-model for quantitative sensitivity analysis, i.e., the Sobol method integrated with the response surface model （RSMSobol）. First, the Morris screening method was used to qualitatively identify the parameters＇ sensitivity, and then ten parameters were selected to quantify the sensitivity indices. Subsequently, the RSMSobol method was used to quantify the sensitivity, i.e., the first-order and total sensitivity indices based on the response surface model （RSM） were calculated. The RSMSobol method can not only quantify the sensitivity, but also reduce the computational cost, with good accuracy compared to the classical approaches. This approach will be effective and reliable in the global sensitivity analysis of a complex large-scale distributed hydrological model.
基金the National Key Basic Research Development Program of China (973 Program)(Grant No. G2006CB605208-3)the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10602018)the Natural Science Foundation of Guangdong Province of China (Grant No. 05300252)
文摘With the development of computer technology and numerical simulation technology, computer aided engineering (CAE) technology has been widely applied to many fields. One of the main obstacles, which hinder the further application of CAE technology, is how to successfully identify the parameters of the selected model. An elementary framework for parameter identification of a complex model is provided in this paper. The framework includes the construction of objective function, the design of the optimization method and the evaluation of the identified results, etc. The parameter identification process is described in this framework, taking the parameter identification of the superplastic constitutive model considering grain growth for Ti-6Al-4V at 927°C as an example. The objective function is the weighted quadratic sums of the difference between the experimental and computational data for the stress-strain relationship and the grain growth relationship; the designed optimization method is a hybrid global optimization method, which is based on the feature of the objective function and incorporates the strengths of genetic algorithm (GA), the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm and the augmented Gauss-Newton algorithm. The reliability evaluation of parameter identification result is made through the comparison between the calculated and experimental results and between the theoretical values of the parameters and the identified ones.
