Disaster risk reduction has become a global strategy for making cities more resilient since the establishment of the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005. The question that still challenges emergency management scholars...Disaster risk reduction has become a global strategy for making cities more resilient since the establishment of the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005. The question that still challenges emergency management scholars and professionals, however, is what contributes to the progress of resilience building. Previous literature suggests that disaster resilience can be attributable to multiple factors, including leadership. But the specific abilities that help leaders promote resilience have not yet been examined empirically. To address this problem, using the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 10 Essentials for Making Cities Resilient as guidelines, we assessed the progress of flood resilience building in Thailand and its relationship to local government leaders' abilities. Our research showed that, since the flood disaster in 2011, municipalities in Thailand have made moderate progress in flood resilience building. The results of a multiple regression analysis revealed that disaster resilience leadership abilities have had a statistically significant, positive effect on the progress of flood resilience building. Our findings underscore the role of leadership in making cities more resilient and shed light on how local government leaders can contribute to the progress ofdisaster risk reduction. We also outline the academic implications and practical contributions of our research.展开更多
【目的】为缩小单一赋权方法结果差异性,解决评价过程专家规避后悔心理造成评价结果失真的问题,采用博弈论和后悔理论评价城市洪涝灾害韧性。【方法】从城市洪涝灾害韧性属性和韧性维度2个方面构建22个评价指标;运用博弈论集合OWA(Order...【目的】为缩小单一赋权方法结果差异性,解决评价过程专家规避后悔心理造成评价结果失真的问题,采用博弈论和后悔理论评价城市洪涝灾害韧性。【方法】从城市洪涝灾害韧性属性和韧性维度2个方面构建22个评价指标;运用博弈论集合OWA(Ordered Weighted Average operator)算子和改进CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)法,充分考虑主客观因素对权重的作用,得到指标综合权重;引入有限理性的后悔理论,通过构建效用值、后悔-欣喜值、感知效用值矩阵评价西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性等级,并将评价结果与模糊层次分析法、OWA算子和后悔理论法,改进CRITIC和后悔理论法、后悔理论4种方法的结果进行对比,验证所采用方法的可靠性和有效性。【结果】结果表明:西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性评价值为4.62,韧性等级为Ⅲ级,属于中等韧性。其中灞桥区为Ⅳ级,新城区和未央区为Ⅲ级,碑林区、莲湖区和雁塔区为Ⅱ级,呈现东北区域韧性强于西南区域的特点。【结论】根据博弈论赋权结果可知:透水面积占比、汛期单日最大降雨量、互联网覆盖率、排水管网密度、主城区道路易积水点数量和植被覆盖率6个指标是影响西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性的主要指标,为城市洪涝灾害韧性管理提供参考。展开更多
针对区域洪水灾害恢复力评价方法较为薄弱及其驱动机制不明的问题,构建自然、经济、社会和技术4个维度的洪水灾害恢复力评价指标体系,建立秃鹰搜索算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Bald Eagle Search Optimizat...针对区域洪水灾害恢复力评价方法较为薄弱及其驱动机制不明的问题,构建自然、经济、社会和技术4个维度的洪水灾害恢复力评价指标体系,建立秃鹰搜索算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Bald Eagle Search Optimization Algorithm,BES-PP)。基于此,利用BES-PP模型对佳木斯市2003-2020年的洪水灾害恢复力进行评估。结果显示:佳木斯市的恢复力水平可分为3个阶段,第一阶段(2003-2006年)恢复力平稳上升但是水平较低,第二阶段(2007-2013年)恢复力水平出现明显波动,第三阶段(2014-2020年)恢复力快速上升并最终达到较高水平。为分析其驱动机制,利用BES-PP模型对各个指标的权重进行分析,结果发现经济维和自然维权重分别达到1.21168和0.93242,其平均权重分别达到0.30292和0.31081,远高于社会维和技术维。表明自然维和经济维的指标对洪水灾害恢复力具有较高程度的影响,应当重视自然及经济因素在规避洪水灾害中的重要作用。为验证BES-PP模型性能,引入了黏菌优化算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Slime Mould Algorithm,SMA-PP)和鲸鱼优化算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Whale Optimization Algorithm,WOA-PP)进行对比分析。结果显示:BES-PP模型在性能上具有较为明显的优势。此外,采用序号总和理论分析BES-PP、SMA-PP和WOA-PP的评价结果发现,BES-PP模型的评价结果更具合理性。研究成果为佳木斯市防灾减灾能力提升提供了科学依据,同时也为灾害恢复力评估提供了一些有价值的信息。展开更多
基金financially supported by Academic Research Division,The Thailand Research Fund(TRF)(Grant Number TRG5880127)Prince of Songkla University
文摘Disaster risk reduction has become a global strategy for making cities more resilient since the establishment of the Hyogo Framework for Action in 2005. The question that still challenges emergency management scholars and professionals, however, is what contributes to the progress of resilience building. Previous literature suggests that disaster resilience can be attributable to multiple factors, including leadership. But the specific abilities that help leaders promote resilience have not yet been examined empirically. To address this problem, using the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction 10 Essentials for Making Cities Resilient as guidelines, we assessed the progress of flood resilience building in Thailand and its relationship to local government leaders' abilities. Our research showed that, since the flood disaster in 2011, municipalities in Thailand have made moderate progress in flood resilience building. The results of a multiple regression analysis revealed that disaster resilience leadership abilities have had a statistically significant, positive effect on the progress of flood resilience building. Our findings underscore the role of leadership in making cities more resilient and shed light on how local government leaders can contribute to the progress ofdisaster risk reduction. We also outline the academic implications and practical contributions of our research.
文摘【目的】为缩小单一赋权方法结果差异性,解决评价过程专家规避后悔心理造成评价结果失真的问题,采用博弈论和后悔理论评价城市洪涝灾害韧性。【方法】从城市洪涝灾害韧性属性和韧性维度2个方面构建22个评价指标;运用博弈论集合OWA(Ordered Weighted Average operator)算子和改进CRITIC(Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation)法,充分考虑主客观因素对权重的作用,得到指标综合权重;引入有限理性的后悔理论,通过构建效用值、后悔-欣喜值、感知效用值矩阵评价西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性等级,并将评价结果与模糊层次分析法、OWA算子和后悔理论法,改进CRITIC和后悔理论法、后悔理论4种方法的结果进行对比,验证所采用方法的可靠性和有效性。【结果】结果表明:西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性评价值为4.62,韧性等级为Ⅲ级,属于中等韧性。其中灞桥区为Ⅳ级,新城区和未央区为Ⅲ级,碑林区、莲湖区和雁塔区为Ⅱ级,呈现东北区域韧性强于西南区域的特点。【结论】根据博弈论赋权结果可知:透水面积占比、汛期单日最大降雨量、互联网覆盖率、排水管网密度、主城区道路易积水点数量和植被覆盖率6个指标是影响西安市主城区洪涝灾害韧性的主要指标,为城市洪涝灾害韧性管理提供参考。
文摘针对区域洪水灾害恢复力评价方法较为薄弱及其驱动机制不明的问题,构建自然、经济、社会和技术4个维度的洪水灾害恢复力评价指标体系,建立秃鹰搜索算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Bald Eagle Search Optimization Algorithm,BES-PP)。基于此,利用BES-PP模型对佳木斯市2003-2020年的洪水灾害恢复力进行评估。结果显示:佳木斯市的恢复力水平可分为3个阶段,第一阶段(2003-2006年)恢复力平稳上升但是水平较低,第二阶段(2007-2013年)恢复力水平出现明显波动,第三阶段(2014-2020年)恢复力快速上升并最终达到较高水平。为分析其驱动机制,利用BES-PP模型对各个指标的权重进行分析,结果发现经济维和自然维权重分别达到1.21168和0.93242,其平均权重分别达到0.30292和0.31081,远高于社会维和技术维。表明自然维和经济维的指标对洪水灾害恢复力具有较高程度的影响,应当重视自然及经济因素在规避洪水灾害中的重要作用。为验证BES-PP模型性能,引入了黏菌优化算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Slime Mould Algorithm,SMA-PP)和鲸鱼优化算法改进投影寻踪模型(Projection Pursuit Model Based on Whale Optimization Algorithm,WOA-PP)进行对比分析。结果显示:BES-PP模型在性能上具有较为明显的优势。此外,采用序号总和理论分析BES-PP、SMA-PP和WOA-PP的评价结果发现,BES-PP模型的评价结果更具合理性。研究成果为佳木斯市防灾减灾能力提升提供了科学依据,同时也为灾害恢复力评估提供了一些有价值的信息。
