Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme...Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components is proposed.Based on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere,predictable components and unpredictable random components are separated by using the standpoint of error growth in a numerical model.The predictable components are defined as those with slow error growth at a given range,which are not sensitive to small errors in initial conditions. A numerical model for predictable components(NMPC)is established,by filtering random components with poor predictability.The aim is to maintain predictable components and avoid the influence of rapidly growing forecast errors on small scales. Meanwhile,the analogue-dynamical approach(ADA)is used to correct forecast errors of predictable components,to decrease model error and statistically take into account the influence of random components.The scheme is applied to operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA).Prediction results show that the scheme can improve forecast skill of predictable components to some extent, especially in high predictability regions.Forecast skill at zonal wave zero is improved more than for ultra-long waves and synoptic-scale waves.Results show good agreement with predictability of spatial scale.As a result,the scheme can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast skill,which favors operational use.展开更多
A continuous overcast-rainy weather(CORW) process occurred over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR) in China from February 14 to March 9 in 2009,with a large stretch and long duration that was rarely see...A continuous overcast-rainy weather(CORW) process occurred over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR) in China from February 14 to March 9 in 2009,with a large stretch and long duration that was rarely seen in historical records.Using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF),we analyzed the geopotential height anomaly field of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II in the same period,and defined the stable components of extended-range(10-30 days) weather forecast(ERWF).Furthermore,we defined anomalous and climatic stable components based on the variation characteristics of the variance contribution ratio of EOF components.The climatic stable components were able to explain the impact of climatically averaged information on the ERWF,and the anomalous stable components revealed the abnormal characteristics of the continuous overcast-rainy days.Our results show that the stable components,especially the anomalous stable components,can maintain the stability for a longer time(more than 10 days) and manifest as monthly scale low-frequency variation and ultra-long-wave activities.They also behave as ultra-long waves of planetary scale with a stable and vertically coherent structure,reflect the variation of general circulation in mid-high latitudes,display the cycle of the zonal circulation and the movement and adjustment of the ultra-long waves,and are closely linked to the surface CORW process.展开更多
为提高应用于无人机的增程式电推进系统能量利用效率,采用基于双层模糊控制的能量管理策略并使用遗传算法对控制参数进行优化,依据飞行动力学理论在仿真飞行工况中设置不同扰动,检验能量管理策略的抗飞行扰动效果。仿真结果表明:相比于...为提高应用于无人机的增程式电推进系统能量利用效率,采用基于双层模糊控制的能量管理策略并使用遗传算法对控制参数进行优化,依据飞行动力学理论在仿真飞行工况中设置不同扰动,检验能量管理策略的抗飞行扰动效果。仿真结果表明:相比于基于多点逻辑门规则和比例积分微分PID(proportion integral differential)的能量管理策略,双模糊能量管理策略可使发动机运行平均燃油消耗率下降3.4%,整体燃油消耗量下降3.8%,电池使用量降低10.6%,发动机平均转速误差下降77.0%,面对突风扰动、复合扰动和连续紊流扰动时转速最大波动量分别降低71.4%、72.6%和46.7%。经过遗传算法优化后的双模糊能量管理策略相比优化前的控制参数,发动机平均转速误差下降6.6%,面对上述3种扰动时转速最大波动量分别降低12.8%、8.3%和39.4%。展开更多
It is difficult to make full use of the electrical energy of the power battery for extended-range electric tractors because the battery’s state of charge may be relatively high at the end of the running mileage.To ad...It is difficult to make full use of the electrical energy of the power battery for extended-range electric tractors because the battery’s state of charge may be relatively high at the end of the running mileage.To address this situation,this paper aimed to study the control parameter adjustment in relation to the power battery’s electrical consumption and the diesel engine’s fuel consumption energy management strategy.Based on the AVL-Cruise simulation platform,the vehicle model of the tractor was established,and the control module of AVL-Cruise was used to compile the energy management strategy.In order to verify the superiority of the proposed strategy,the contrast strategy was employed in terms of the diesel engine start and stop control plus fixed point energy management strategy(FPEMS).The applicability of the proposed strategy was tested through continuous transfer operation and the small area deep loosening operation.The simulation results show that the proposed strategy was of good applicability.Compared with the FPEMS,the fuel consumption reduced significantly,and the electrical consumption of the power battery increased obviously.展开更多
We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs...We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In the discussion, we used the EOFs for geostrophic zonal wind (Uznl) and the height deviation from the zonal mean (Zeddy). The set of EOFs for Uznl and Zeddy was denoted as Uznl-1, Uznl-2, ..., Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2, ..., respectively. We used the data samples of 396 pentads derived from 33 years of NMC, ECMWF and JMA analyses, from January 1963 to 1995. From the calculated scores for Uznl-1, Uznl-2, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2 and so on we found that Uznl-1 and Zeddy-1 were statistically stable and their scores were more persistent than those of the other EOFs. A close relationship existed between the scores of Uznl-1 and those of Zeddy-1. 30-day forecast experiments were carried out with the medium resolution version of JMA global spectral model for 20 cases in January and February for the period of 1984-1992. Results showed that Zeddy-1 was more predictable than the other EOFs for Zeddy. Considering these results, we argued that prediction of the Zeddy-1 was to be one of the main target of extended-range forecasting.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos.41105070,40930952 and 41005041)State Key Program of Science and Technology of China(Grant No.2009BAC51B04)Meteorological Special Project of China(Grant No.GYHY 201106016)
文摘Although extended-range forecasting has exceeded the limit of daily predictability of weather,there are still partially predictable characteristics of meteorological fields in such forecasts.A targeted forecast scheme and strategy for extended-range predictable components is proposed.Based on chaotic characteristics of the atmosphere,predictable components and unpredictable random components are separated by using the standpoint of error growth in a numerical model.The predictable components are defined as those with slow error growth at a given range,which are not sensitive to small errors in initial conditions. A numerical model for predictable components(NMPC)is established,by filtering random components with poor predictability.The aim is to maintain predictable components and avoid the influence of rapidly growing forecast errors on small scales. Meanwhile,the analogue-dynamical approach(ADA)is used to correct forecast errors of predictable components,to decrease model error and statistically take into account the influence of random components.The scheme is applied to operational dynamical extended-range forecast(DERF)model of the National Climate Center of China Meteorological Administration (NCC/CMA).Prediction results show that the scheme can improve forecast skill of predictable components to some extent, especially in high predictability regions.Forecast skill at zonal wave zero is improved more than for ultra-long waves and synoptic-scale waves.Results show good agreement with predictability of spatial scale.As a result,the scheme can reduce forecast errors and improve forecast skill,which favors operational use.
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No.40930952)Science and Technology Supporting Project (Grant No.2009BAC51B04)
文摘A continuous overcast-rainy weather(CORW) process occurred over the mid-lower reaches of the Yangtze River(MLRYR) in China from February 14 to March 9 in 2009,with a large stretch and long duration that was rarely seen in historical records.Using the empirical orthogonal function(EOF),we analyzed the geopotential height anomaly field of the NCEP-DOE Reanalysis II in the same period,and defined the stable components of extended-range(10-30 days) weather forecast(ERWF).Furthermore,we defined anomalous and climatic stable components based on the variation characteristics of the variance contribution ratio of EOF components.The climatic stable components were able to explain the impact of climatically averaged information on the ERWF,and the anomalous stable components revealed the abnormal characteristics of the continuous overcast-rainy days.Our results show that the stable components,especially the anomalous stable components,can maintain the stability for a longer time(more than 10 days) and manifest as monthly scale low-frequency variation and ultra-long-wave activities.They also behave as ultra-long waves of planetary scale with a stable and vertically coherent structure,reflect the variation of general circulation in mid-high latitudes,display the cycle of the zonal circulation and the movement and adjustment of the ultra-long waves,and are closely linked to the surface CORW process.
文摘为提高应用于无人机的增程式电推进系统能量利用效率,采用基于双层模糊控制的能量管理策略并使用遗传算法对控制参数进行优化,依据飞行动力学理论在仿真飞行工况中设置不同扰动,检验能量管理策略的抗飞行扰动效果。仿真结果表明:相比于基于多点逻辑门规则和比例积分微分PID(proportion integral differential)的能量管理策略,双模糊能量管理策略可使发动机运行平均燃油消耗率下降3.4%,整体燃油消耗量下降3.8%,电池使用量降低10.6%,发动机平均转速误差下降77.0%,面对突风扰动、复合扰动和连续紊流扰动时转速最大波动量分别降低71.4%、72.6%和46.7%。经过遗传算法优化后的双模糊能量管理策略相比优化前的控制参数,发动机平均转速误差下降6.6%,面对上述3种扰动时转速最大波动量分别降低12.8%、8.3%和39.4%。
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China during the 13th Five-Year Plan Period(No.2016YFD0701002)Henan University of Science and Technology Innovation Talents Support Program(No.18HASTIT026)Research Program of Application Foundation and Advanced Technology of Henan Province(No.152300410080).
文摘It is difficult to make full use of the electrical energy of the power battery for extended-range electric tractors because the battery’s state of charge may be relatively high at the end of the running mileage.To address this situation,this paper aimed to study the control parameter adjustment in relation to the power battery’s electrical consumption and the diesel engine’s fuel consumption energy management strategy.Based on the AVL-Cruise simulation platform,the vehicle model of the tractor was established,and the control module of AVL-Cruise was used to compile the energy management strategy.In order to verify the superiority of the proposed strategy,the contrast strategy was employed in terms of the diesel engine start and stop control plus fixed point energy management strategy(FPEMS).The applicability of the proposed strategy was tested through continuous transfer operation and the small area deep loosening operation.The simulation results show that the proposed strategy was of good applicability.Compared with the FPEMS,the fuel consumption reduced significantly,and the electrical consumption of the power battery increased obviously.
文摘We examined the characteristic feature and predictability of low frequency variability (LFV) of the atmosphere in the Northern Hemisphere winter (January and February) by using the empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of the geopotential height at 500 hPa. In the discussion, we used the EOFs for geostrophic zonal wind (Uznl) and the height deviation from the zonal mean (Zeddy). The set of EOFs for Uznl and Zeddy was denoted as Uznl-1, Uznl-2, ..., Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2, ..., respectively. We used the data samples of 396 pentads derived from 33 years of NMC, ECMWF and JMA analyses, from January 1963 to 1995. From the calculated scores for Uznl-1, Uznl-2, Zeddy-1, Zeddy-2 and so on we found that Uznl-1 and Zeddy-1 were statistically stable and their scores were more persistent than those of the other EOFs. A close relationship existed between the scores of Uznl-1 and those of Zeddy-1. 30-day forecast experiments were carried out with the medium resolution version of JMA global spectral model for 20 cases in January and February for the period of 1984-1992. Results showed that Zeddy-1 was more predictable than the other EOFs for Zeddy. Considering these results, we argued that prediction of the Zeddy-1 was to be one of the main target of extended-range forecasting.
