The stochastic model plays an important role in parameter estimation. The optimal estimator in the sense of least squares can only be obtained by using the correct stochastic model and consequently guarantees the prec...The stochastic model plays an important role in parameter estimation. The optimal estimator in the sense of least squares can only be obtained by using the correct stochastic model and consequently guarantees the precise positioning in GPS applications. In this contribution, the GPS measurements, collected by different types of geodetic dual-frequency receiver pairs on ultra-short baselines with a sampling interval of 1 s, are used to address their stochastic models, which include the variances of all observation types, the relationship between the observation accuracy and its elevation angle, the time correlation, as well as the correlation between observation types. The results show that the commonly used stochastic model with the assumption that all the raw GPS measurements are independent with the same variance does not meet the need for precise positioning and the elevation-dependent weight model cannot work well for different receiver and observation types. The time correlation and cross correlation are significant as well. It is therefore concluded that the stochastic model is much associated with the receiver and observation types and should be specified for the receiver and observation types.展开更多
Elevation-dependent warming(EDW),whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation,may increase the threat to the life-supporting solid water reservoir on the Tibetan Plateau.Previous studies have debated whether EDW ...Elevation-dependent warming(EDW),whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation,may increase the threat to the life-supporting solid water reservoir on the Tibetan Plateau.Previous studies have debated whether EDW exists and how it is driven.Using temperatures at 133 weather stations on the Tibetan Plateau during 17 different periods generated using a 30-year sliding window over 1973-2018,this study finds that the existence of EDW varies as the period moves forward,and critically it has become more severe over time.During the early part of the record with weaker regional warming,there were limited changes in snow depth and no EDW,but as time advances and regional warming intensifies,snow depth declines significantly at higher elevations,causing development of EDW.We conclude that enhanced regional warming has caused decreases in snow depth,largely controlling the pattern of EDW on the Tibetan Plateau.This may explain contrasting conclusions on EDW from previous studies which have used data for different periods,and our findings support enhanced EDW and more severe depletion of the Tibetan Plateau solid water reserves in a warmer future.展开更多
观测信息随机模型在参数估计、质量控制和精度评定过程中具有重要作用,准确的观测信息随机模型是北斗精密定位的基础。首先,利用简化的Helmert方差分量估计方法估计北斗三号卫星观测信息精度,并拟合模型系数;然后,利用全局检验和ω检验...观测信息随机模型在参数估计、质量控制和精度评定过程中具有重要作用,准确的观测信息随机模型是北斗精密定位的基础。首先,利用简化的Helmert方差分量估计方法估计北斗三号卫星观测信息精度,并拟合模型系数;然后,利用全局检验和ω检验对基于分段函数、正弦函数、余弦函数和指数函数的随机模型进行统计检验,分析随机模型统计特性;最后,利用精密单点定位(precise point positioning,PPP)检验各随机模型对定位性能的影响。实验结果表明,北斗三号卫星的伪距和载波相位观测值精度均与高度角相关,且观测类型不同,相关程度不同;基于指数函数的随机模型在拟合误差、全局检验和ω检验中均表现出最优的性能,全局检验浮点解和固定解的误警率仅为5.1%和4.9%,ω检验伪距和载波相位最大误警率分别为5.8%和6.8%,PPP收敛时间最短,定位精度最高。基于指数函数的随机模型能够准确描述北斗观测信息精度,提高北斗三号卫星精密定位结果的精度和可靠性。展开更多
This study uses the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) global land-surface daily air temperature dataset V1.0 (GLSATD V1.0) to analyze long-term changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalay...This study uses the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) global land-surface daily air temperature dataset V1.0 (GLSATD V1.0) to analyze long-term changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during 1961e2015. Results show there was a significant decrease in the number of extreme cold events (cold nights, cold days, and frost days) but a significant increase in the number of extreme warm events (warm nights, warm days, and summer days) over the entire HKH during 1961e2015. For percentile-based indices, trends of extreme events related to minimum temperature (Tmin) were greater in magnitude than those related to maximum temperature (Tmax). For absolute-value based indices, maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and summer days all show increasing trends, while frost days and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) show significant decreasing trends. In addition, there was a decrease in extreme cold events in most parts of east HKH, particularly in Southwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, while there was a general increase in extreme warm events over the entire HKH. Finally, the change in extreme cold events in the HKH appears to be more sensitive to elevation (with cold nights and cold days decreasing with elevation), whereas the change in warm extremes (warm nights, warm days, and maximum Tmax) shows no detectable relationship with elevation. Frost days and minimum Tmin also have a good relationship with elevation, and the trend in frost days decreases with an increase in elevation while the trend in minimum Tmin increases with an increase in elevation.展开更多
Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,deg...Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,degradation of soils,and active layer thickness.EDW means that temperature is warming faster with the increase of altitude.In this study,we used observed temperature data during 1979-2017 from 23 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains(QLM)to analyze temperature trend with Mann-Kendall(MK)test and Sen’s slope approach.Results showed that the warming trends for the annual temperature followed the order of T_min>T_mean>T_max and with a shift both occurred in 1997.Spring and summer temperature have a higher increasing trend than that in autumn and winter.T_mean shifts occurred in 1996 for spring and summer,in 1997 for autumn and winter.T_max shifts occurred in 1997 for spring and 1996 for summer.T_min shifts occurred in 1997 for spring,summer and winter as well as in 1999 for autumn.Annual mean diurnal temperature range(DTR)shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.18°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017.Summer mean DTR shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.26°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017 with a shift occurred in 2010.After removing longitude and latitude factors,we can learn that the warming enhancement rate of average annual temperature is 0.0673°C/km/10a,indicating that the temperature warming trend is accelerating with the continuous increase of altitude.The increase rate of elevation temperature is 0.0371°C/km/10a in spring,0.0457°C/km/10a in summer,0.0707°C/km/10a in autumn,and 0.0606°C/km/10a in winter,which indicates that there is a clear EDW in the QLM.The main causes of warming in the Qilian Mountains are human activities,cloudiness,ice-snow feedback and El Nino phenomenon.展开更多
As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes ...As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0℃/1.5℃ global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model(CESM). Elevation-dependent warming(EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0℃/1.5℃ warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period(1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2℃ higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios.展开更多
Stochastic models play an important role in achieving high accuracy in positioning,the ideal estimator in the least-squares(LS)can be obtained only by using the suitable stochastic model.This study investigates the ro...Stochastic models play an important role in achieving high accuracy in positioning,the ideal estimator in the least-squares(LS)can be obtained only by using the suitable stochastic model.This study investigates the role of variance component estimation(VCE)in the LS method for Precise Point Positioning(PPP).This estimation is performed by considering the ionospheric-free(IF)functional model for code and the phase observation of Global Positioning System(GPS).The strategy for estimating the accuracy of these observations was evaluated to check the effect of the stochastic model in four modes:a)antenna type,b)receiver type,c)the tropospheric effect,and d)the ionosphere effect.The results show that using empirical variance for code and phase observations in some cases caused erroneous estimation of unknown components in the PPP model.This is because a constant empirical variance may not be suitable for various receivers and antennas under different conditions.Coordinates were compared in two cases using the stochastic model of nominal weight and weight estimated by LS-VCE.The position error difference for the east-west,north-south,and height components was 1.5 cm,4 mm,and 1.8 cm,respectively.Therefore,weight estimation with LS-VCE can provide more appropriate results.Eventually,the convergence time based on four elevation-dependent models was evaluated using nominal weight and LS-VCE weight.According to the results,the LS-VCE has a higher convergence rate than the nominal weight.The weight estimation using LS-VCE improves the convergence time in four elevation-dependent models by 11,13,12,and 9 min,respectively.展开更多
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40674003)a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (Grant No. B19340129)the Project From Science and Technology Commission of Shanghai Municipality (Grant No. 06DZ22101)
文摘The stochastic model plays an important role in parameter estimation. The optimal estimator in the sense of least squares can only be obtained by using the correct stochastic model and consequently guarantees the precise positioning in GPS applications. In this contribution, the GPS measurements, collected by different types of geodetic dual-frequency receiver pairs on ultra-short baselines with a sampling interval of 1 s, are used to address their stochastic models, which include the variances of all observation types, the relationship between the observation accuracy and its elevation angle, the time correlation, as well as the correlation between observation types. The results show that the commonly used stochastic model with the assumption that all the raw GPS measurements are independent with the same variance does not meet the need for precise positioning and the elevation-dependent weight model cannot work well for different receiver and observation types. The time correlation and cross correlation are significant as well. It is therefore concluded that the stochastic model is much associated with the receiver and observation types and should be specified for the receiver and observation types.
基金supported by the Second Tibetan Plateau Scientific Expedition and Research(STEP)Program(2019QZKK0102)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41991281 and 41775076)Youth Innovation Promotion Association of Chinese Academy of Sciences(2018103)。
文摘Elevation-dependent warming(EDW),whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation,may increase the threat to the life-supporting solid water reservoir on the Tibetan Plateau.Previous studies have debated whether EDW exists and how it is driven.Using temperatures at 133 weather stations on the Tibetan Plateau during 17 different periods generated using a 30-year sliding window over 1973-2018,this study finds that the existence of EDW varies as the period moves forward,and critically it has become more severe over time.During the early part of the record with weaker regional warming,there were limited changes in snow depth and no EDW,but as time advances and regional warming intensifies,snow depth declines significantly at higher elevations,causing development of EDW.We conclude that enhanced regional warming has caused decreases in snow depth,largely controlling the pattern of EDW on the Tibetan Plateau.This may explain contrasting conclusions on EDW from previous studies which have used data for different periods,and our findings support enhanced EDW and more severe depletion of the Tibetan Plateau solid water reserves in a warmer future.
文摘观测信息随机模型在参数估计、质量控制和精度评定过程中具有重要作用,准确的观测信息随机模型是北斗精密定位的基础。首先,利用简化的Helmert方差分量估计方法估计北斗三号卫星观测信息精度,并拟合模型系数;然后,利用全局检验和ω检验对基于分段函数、正弦函数、余弦函数和指数函数的随机模型进行统计检验,分析随机模型统计特性;最后,利用精密单点定位(precise point positioning,PPP)检验各随机模型对定位性能的影响。实验结果表明,北斗三号卫星的伪距和载波相位观测值精度均与高度角相关,且观测类型不同,相关程度不同;基于指数函数的随机模型在拟合误差、全局检验和ω检验中均表现出最优的性能,全局检验浮点解和固定解的误警率仅为5.1%和4.9%,ω检验伪距和载波相位最大误警率分别为5.8%和6.8%,PPP收敛时间最短,定位精度最高。基于指数函数的随机模型能够准确描述北斗观测信息精度,提高北斗三号卫星精密定位结果的精度和可靠性。
文摘This study uses the CMA (China Meteorological Administration) global land-surface daily air temperature dataset V1.0 (GLSATD V1.0) to analyze long-term changes in extreme temperature events over the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) during 1961e2015. Results show there was a significant decrease in the number of extreme cold events (cold nights, cold days, and frost days) but a significant increase in the number of extreme warm events (warm nights, warm days, and summer days) over the entire HKH during 1961e2015. For percentile-based indices, trends of extreme events related to minimum temperature (Tmin) were greater in magnitude than those related to maximum temperature (Tmax). For absolute-value based indices, maximum Tmax, minimum Tmin, and summer days all show increasing trends, while frost days and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) show significant decreasing trends. In addition, there was a decrease in extreme cold events in most parts of east HKH, particularly in Southwest China and the Tibetan Plateau, while there was a general increase in extreme warm events over the entire HKH. Finally, the change in extreme cold events in the HKH appears to be more sensitive to elevation (with cold nights and cold days decreasing with elevation), whereas the change in warm extremes (warm nights, warm days, and maximum Tmax) shows no detectable relationship with elevation. Frost days and minimum Tmin also have a good relationship with elevation, and the trend in frost days decreases with an increase in elevation while the trend in minimum Tmin increases with an increase in elevation.
基金financially supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(No.XDA23060301)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.41621001).
文摘Understanding temperature variability especially elevation dependent warming(EDW)in high-elevation mountain regions is critical for assessing the impacts of climate change on water resources including glacier melt,degradation of soils,and active layer thickness.EDW means that temperature is warming faster with the increase of altitude.In this study,we used observed temperature data during 1979-2017 from 23 meteorological stations in the Qilian Mountains(QLM)to analyze temperature trend with Mann-Kendall(MK)test and Sen’s slope approach.Results showed that the warming trends for the annual temperature followed the order of T_min>T_mean>T_max and with a shift both occurred in 1997.Spring and summer temperature have a higher increasing trend than that in autumn and winter.T_mean shifts occurred in 1996 for spring and summer,in 1997 for autumn and winter.T_max shifts occurred in 1997 for spring and 1996 for summer.T_min shifts occurred in 1997 for spring,summer and winter as well as in 1999 for autumn.Annual mean diurnal temperature range(DTR)shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.18°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017.Summer mean DTR shows a significant decreasing trend(-0.26°C/10a)from 1979 to 2017 with a shift occurred in 2010.After removing longitude and latitude factors,we can learn that the warming enhancement rate of average annual temperature is 0.0673°C/km/10a,indicating that the temperature warming trend is accelerating with the continuous increase of altitude.The increase rate of elevation temperature is 0.0371°C/km/10a in spring,0.0457°C/km/10a in summer,0.0707°C/km/10a in autumn,and 0.0606°C/km/10a in winter,which indicates that there is a clear EDW in the QLM.The main causes of warming in the Qilian Mountains are human activities,cloudiness,ice-snow feedback and El Nino phenomenon.
基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41971072,41771069).
文摘As "the third pole", the Tibetan Plateau(TP) is sensitive to climate forcing and has experienced rapid warming in recent decades. This study analyzes annual and seasonal near-surface air temperature changes on the TP in response to transient and stabilized 2.0℃/1.5℃ global warming targets based on simulations of the Community Earth System Model(CESM). Elevation-dependent warming(EDW) with faster warming at higher elevations is predicted. A surface energy budget analysis is adopted to uncover the mechanisms responsible for the temperature changes. Our results indicate a clear amplified warming on the TP with positive EDW in 2.0℃/1.5℃ warmer futures, especially in the cold season. Mean TP warming relative to the reference period(1961–90) is dominated by an enhanced downward longwave radiation flux, while the variations in surface albedo shape the detailed pattern of EDW. For the same global warming level, the temperature changes under transient scenarios are ~0.2℃ higher than those under stabilized scenarios, and the characteristics of EDW are broadly similar for both scenarios. These differences can be primarily attributed to the combined effects of differential downward longwave radiation, cloud radiative forcing, and surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. These findings contribute to a more detailed understanding of regional climate on the TP in response to the long-term climate goals of the Paris Agreement and highlight the differences between transient and stabilized warming scenarios.
文摘Stochastic models play an important role in achieving high accuracy in positioning,the ideal estimator in the least-squares(LS)can be obtained only by using the suitable stochastic model.This study investigates the role of variance component estimation(VCE)in the LS method for Precise Point Positioning(PPP).This estimation is performed by considering the ionospheric-free(IF)functional model for code and the phase observation of Global Positioning System(GPS).The strategy for estimating the accuracy of these observations was evaluated to check the effect of the stochastic model in four modes:a)antenna type,b)receiver type,c)the tropospheric effect,and d)the ionosphere effect.The results show that using empirical variance for code and phase observations in some cases caused erroneous estimation of unknown components in the PPP model.This is because a constant empirical variance may not be suitable for various receivers and antennas under different conditions.Coordinates were compared in two cases using the stochastic model of nominal weight and weight estimated by LS-VCE.The position error difference for the east-west,north-south,and height components was 1.5 cm,4 mm,and 1.8 cm,respectively.Therefore,weight estimation with LS-VCE can provide more appropriate results.Eventually,the convergence time based on four elevation-dependent models was evaluated using nominal weight and LS-VCE weight.According to the results,the LS-VCE has a higher convergence rate than the nominal weight.The weight estimation using LS-VCE improves the convergence time in four elevation-dependent models by 11,13,12,and 9 min,respectively.
