This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permit...This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting scale[1-km resolution in the innermost domain(d3)].Two ensembles of simulation(CTRL,NURB),each consisting of 11 members with a multi-layer urban canopy model and various combinations of physics schemes,were conducted using different land cover scenarios:(i)the real urban land cover,(ii)all cities in d3 being replaced with natural land cover.The results suggest that CTRL reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms and the 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region,although the maximum hourly rainfall is underestimated and displaced to the west or southwest by most members.The ensemble mean 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region of heavy rainfall is reduced by 13%,and the maximum hourly rainfall simulated by each member is reduced by 15–70 mm in CTRL relative to NURB.The reduction in the simulated rainfall by urbanization is closely associated with numerous cities/towns to the south,southeast,and east of Zhengzhou.Their heating effects jointly lead to formation of anomalous upward motions in and above the planetary boundary layer(PBL),which exaggerates the PBL drying effect due to reduced evapotranspiration and also enhances the wind stilling effect due to increased surface friction in urban areas.As a result,the lateral inflows of moisture and high-θe(equivalent potential temperature)air from south and east to Zhengzhou are reduced.展开更多
This study investigates influencing weather systems for and the effect of Tibetan Plateau （TP）’s surface heating on the heavy rainfall over southern China in June 2010, focusing on the four persistent heavy rainfal...This study investigates influencing weather systems for and the effect of Tibetan Plateau （TP）’s surface heating on the heavy rainfall over southern China in June 2010, focusing on the four persistent heavy rainfall events during 14-24 June 2010. The ma jor weather systems include the South Asian high, midlatitude trough and ridge, western Pacific subtropical high in the middle troposphere, and shear lines and eastward-moving vortices in the lower troposphere. An ensemble of convection-permitting simulations （CTL） is carried out with the WRF model for these rainfall events, which successfully reproduce the observed evolution of precipitation and weather systems. Another ensemble of simulations （SEN） with the surface albedo over the TP and its southern slope changed artificially to one, i.e., the surface does not absorb any solar heating, otherwise it is identical to CTL, is also performed. Comparison between CTL and SEN suggests that the surface sensible heating of TP in CTL significantly affects the temperature distributions over the plateau and its surroundings, and the thermal wind adjustment consequently changes atmospheric circulations and properties of the synoptic systems, leading to intensified precipitation over southern China. Specifically, at 200 hPa, anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies form over the western and eastern plateau, respectively, which enhances the southward cold air intrusion along the eastern TP and the divergence over southern China;at 500 hPa, the ridge over the northern plateau and the trough over eastern China are strengthened, the southwesterly flows along the northwestern side of the subtropical high are intensified, and the positive vorticity propagation from the plateau to its downstream is also enhanced significantly;at 850 hPa, the low-pressure vortices strongly develop and move eastward while the southwesterly low-level jet over southern China strengthens in CTL, leading to increased water vapor convergence and upward motion over the precipitation region.展开更多
Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate ...Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.展开更多
The non-hydrostatic global variable resolution model(MPAS-atmosphere)is used to conduct the simulations for the South Asian Summer monsoon season(June,July,and August)in 2015 with a refinement over the Tibetan Plateau...The non-hydrostatic global variable resolution model(MPAS-atmosphere)is used to conduct the simulations for the South Asian Summer monsoon season(June,July,and August)in 2015 with a refinement over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)at the convection-permitting scale(4 km).Two experiments with different topographical datasets,complex(4-km)and smooth(60-km)topography,are designed to investigate the impacts of topographical complexity on moisture transport and precipitation.Compared with the observations and reanalysis data,the simulation can successfully capture the general features of key meteorological fields over the TP despite slightly underestimating the inflow through the southern TP.The results indicate that the complex topography can decrease the inward and outward moisture transport,ultimately increasing the total net moisture transport into the TP by~11%.The impacts of complex topography on precipitation are negligible over the TP,but the spatial distributions of precipitation over the Himalayas are significantly modulated.With the inclusion of complex topography,the sharper southern slopes of the Himalayas shift the lifted airflow and hence precipitation northward compared to the smooth topography.In addition,more small-scale valleys are resolved by the inclusion of complex topography,which serve as channels for moisture transport across the Himalayas,further favoring a northward shift of precipitation.Overall,the difference between the two experiments with different topography datasets is mainly attributed to their differing representation of the degree of the southern slopes of the Himalayas and the extent to which the valleys are resolved.展开更多
This research studies the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry/Aerosol module(WRF-Chem)with and without parametrization to reproduce a dust storm,which was held on 27th J...This research studies the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry/Aerosol module(WRF-Chem)with and without parametrization to reproduce a dust storm,which was held on 27th June 2018 over Sahara region.The authors use satellite observations and ground-based measurements to evaluate the WRF-Chem simulations.The sensitivities of WRF-Chem Model are tested on the replication of haboob features with a tuned GOCART aerosol module.Comparisons of simulations with satellite and ground-based observations show that WRF-Chem is able to reproduce the Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)distribution and associated changes of haboob in the meteorological fields with temperature drops of about 9℃and wind gust 20 m·s–1.The WRF-Chem Convec-tion-permitting model(CPM)shows strong 10-meter winds induced a large dust emission along the leading edge of a convective cold pool(LECCP).The CPM indicates heavy dust transported over the West African coast(16°W-10°W;6°N-21°N)which has a potential for long-distance travel on 27th June between 1100 UTC and 1500 UTC.The daily precipitation is improved in the CPM with a spatial distribution similar to the GPM-IMERG precipitation and maxi-mum rainfall located at the right place.As well as raising a large amount of dust,the haboob caused considerable dam-age along its route.展开更多
Local breeding of growing modes(LBGM)is a method used to generate initial condition perturbation(ICP)for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts.Equal weights(EWs)are usually presumed in LBGM during the localization ...Local breeding of growing modes(LBGM)is a method used to generate initial condition perturbation(ICP)for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts.Equal weights(EWs)are usually presumed in LBGM during the localization of ICP,without considering different contributions of the grid points within the local radius.To address this problem,Gaussian weights(GWs)are proposed in this study,which can accommodate the varied influences of the grids inside the local radius on the central grid through a Gaussian function.Specifically,two convection-permitting ensemble forecast experiments based on LBGM with GWs and EWs are compared and analyzed respectively for two squall line cases.The results showed that the use of the GWs intensified the local characteristics of the ICP and made the distribution of the ICP fields more flow-dependent.Kinetic energy spectrum of the ICP indicated that there could be more large-scale information in the ICP by using the GWs.In addition,mesoscale information also improved slightly.For forecast of nonprecipitation variables,GWs improved the relationship between the root-mean-square error and the spread and contributed to the forecasting accuracy of wind,temperature,geopotential height,and humidity.For the precipitation forecast,GWs simulated the precipitation structure successfully and provided better probability forecasting during the evolution of the two squall line processes than the EWs.展开更多
During the era of global warming and highly urbanized development,extreme and high impact weather as well as air pollution incidents influence everyday life and might even cause the incalculable loss of life and prope...During the era of global warming and highly urbanized development,extreme and high impact weather as well as air pollution incidents influence everyday life and might even cause the incalculable loss of life and property.Despite the vast development of atmospheric models,there still exist substantial numerical forecast biases objectively.To accurately predict extreme weather,severe air pollution,and abrupt climate change,numerical atmospheric model requires not only to simulate meteorology and atmospheric compositions simultaneously involving many sophisticated physical and chemical processes but also at high spatiotemporal resolution.Global integrated atmospheric simulation at spatial resolutions of a few kilometers remains challenging due to its intensive computational and input/output(I/O)requirement.Through multi-dimension-parallelism structuring,aggressive and finer-grained optimizing,manual vectorizing,and parallelized I/O fragmenting,an integrated Atmospheric Model Across Scales(iAMAS)was established on the new Sunway supercomputer platform to significantly increase the computational efficiency and reduce the I/O cost.The global 3-km atmospheric simulation for meteorology with online integrated aerosol feedbacks with iAMAS was scaled to 39,000,000 processor cores and achieved the speed of 0.82 simulation day per hour(SDPH)with routine I/O,which enabled us to perform 5-day global weather forecast at 3-km horizontal resolution with online natural aerosol impacts.The results demonstrate the promising future that the increasing of spatial resolution to a few kilometers with online integrated aerosol feedbacks may significantly improve the global weather forecast.展开更多
利用单一的客观评估方法并不能有效揭示预报误差来源。利用逐小时5 km格点融合降水产品,本研究使用了多种客观评估方法综合评估了南京大学2016年夏季汛期试验4 km与12 km WRF模式。整体上,两种分辨率都能成功地预报主雨带,4 km WRF在午...利用单一的客观评估方法并不能有效揭示预报误差来源。利用逐小时5 km格点融合降水产品,本研究使用了多种客观评估方法综合评估了南京大学2016年夏季汛期试验4 km与12 km WRF模式。整体上,两种分辨率都能成功地预报主雨带,4 km WRF在午后对流及复杂地形预报上更优。比较了各类客观评估方法,邻域法显示4 km WRF预报准确性更高,但对于强降水(≥13 mm·(6 h)^(-1)),两种模式预报的空间误差都较大。尺度分离法显示,对于小尺度系统,4 km WRF能较好再现对流但存在较大位置误差,而12 km WRF则漏报。MODE法(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)显示4 km WRF在对象强度预报上更接近观测,但强度和范围偏大,导致华南偏强,而范围偏小造成江淮偏弱,12 km WRF低估主要是漏报。不同评估方法能清晰展示4 km WRF和12 km WRF预报误差的差异,为后续模式改进提供了重要参考。展开更多
During 19–21 July 2021,an extreme rainfall event occurred in Henan Province,China,during which a recordbreaking maximum hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm was recorded in Zhengzhou at 09 UTC July 20.In this study,the predic...During 19–21 July 2021,an extreme rainfall event occurred in Henan Province,China,during which a recordbreaking maximum hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm was recorded in Zhengzhou at 09 UTC July 20.In this study,the predictability of this extreme rainfall event is investigated using two convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs):one initialized from NCEP GEFS(named CEFS_GEFS)and the other initialized from time-lagged ERA5 data(named CEFS_ERA).Both are able to reproduce the daily heavy rainfall along the Taihang Mountains,but most members have significant position biases for the extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou.For the hourly rainfall,a few members are able to capture the evolution and propagation of extreme rainfall.However,all ensemble members underestimate the extreme hourly rainfall and have position errors of a few tens to a few hundreds of kilometers.Such results suggest that the predictability of the extreme hourly rainfall at the accuracy of city scale in Zhengzhou is low,especially by deterministic forecasting models,and the occurrence of the extreme requires many favorable conditions to happen simultaneously.In terms of the Brier score,CEFS_GEFS performs better than CEFS_ERA.The latter lacks spread,especially in regions with scarce rain,resulting in less dispersion in precipitation distributions and larger probability forecast error.When a neighborhood is applied,the probability of precipitation(POP)is significantly increased over Zhengzhou.While the traditional POP shows almost no skill for hourly rainfall≥25 mm h-1,the neighborhood POP significantly improves the forecast skill score,for both daily and hourly rainfall,suggesting higher predictability when spatial error among the ensemble members is allowed.展开更多
基金The National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.42030610 and 42075083)the Innovation and Development Project of China Meteorological Administration(CXFZ2022J014)supported this study.
文摘This study investigates the influences of urban land cover on the extreme rainfall event over the Zhengzhou city in central China on 20 July 2021 using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at a convection-permitting scale[1-km resolution in the innermost domain(d3)].Two ensembles of simulation(CTRL,NURB),each consisting of 11 members with a multi-layer urban canopy model and various combinations of physics schemes,were conducted using different land cover scenarios:(i)the real urban land cover,(ii)all cities in d3 being replaced with natural land cover.The results suggest that CTRL reasonably reproduces the spatiotemporal evolution of rainstorms and the 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region,although the maximum hourly rainfall is underestimated and displaced to the west or southwest by most members.The ensemble mean 24-h rainfall accumulation over the key region of heavy rainfall is reduced by 13%,and the maximum hourly rainfall simulated by each member is reduced by 15–70 mm in CTRL relative to NURB.The reduction in the simulated rainfall by urbanization is closely associated with numerous cities/towns to the south,southeast,and east of Zhengzhou.Their heating effects jointly lead to formation of anomalous upward motions in and above the planetary boundary layer(PBL),which exaggerates the PBL drying effect due to reduced evapotranspiration and also enhances the wind stilling effect due to increased surface friction in urban areas.As a result,the lateral inflows of moisture and high-θe(equivalent potential temperature)air from south and east to Zhengzhou are reduced.
基金Supported by the National(Key) Basic Research and Development(973) Program of China(2012CB417202)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41175049 and 41221064)+1 种基金Basic Research Funds of the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences(2012Y001)National Science and Technology Support Program of China(2012BAC22B03)
文摘This study investigates influencing weather systems for and the effect of Tibetan Plateau （TP）’s surface heating on the heavy rainfall over southern China in June 2010, focusing on the four persistent heavy rainfall events during 14-24 June 2010. The ma jor weather systems include the South Asian high, midlatitude trough and ridge, western Pacific subtropical high in the middle troposphere, and shear lines and eastward-moving vortices in the lower troposphere. An ensemble of convection-permitting simulations （CTL） is carried out with the WRF model for these rainfall events, which successfully reproduce the observed evolution of precipitation and weather systems. Another ensemble of simulations （SEN） with the surface albedo over the TP and its southern slope changed artificially to one, i.e., the surface does not absorb any solar heating, otherwise it is identical to CTL, is also performed. Comparison between CTL and SEN suggests that the surface sensible heating of TP in CTL significantly affects the temperature distributions over the plateau and its surroundings, and the thermal wind adjustment consequently changes atmospheric circulations and properties of the synoptic systems, leading to intensified precipitation over southern China. Specifically, at 200 hPa, anticyclonic and cyclonic anomalies form over the western and eastern plateau, respectively, which enhances the southward cold air intrusion along the eastern TP and the divergence over southern China;at 500 hPa, the ridge over the northern plateau and the trough over eastern China are strengthened, the southwesterly flows along the northwestern side of the subtropical high are intensified, and the positive vorticity propagation from the plateau to its downstream is also enhanced significantly;at 850 hPa, the low-pressure vortices strongly develop and move eastward while the southwesterly low-level jet over southern China strengthens in CTL, leading to increased water vapor convergence and upward motion over the precipitation region.
基金funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.42075162)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2019YFA0606903)the National Key Scientific and Technological Infrastructure project“Earth System Science Numerical Simulator Facility”(EarthLab).
文摘Temperature extremes over rapidly urbanizing regions with high population densities have been scrutinized due to their severe impacts on human safety and economics.First of all,the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 with a hydrostatic or non-hydrostatic dynamic core in simulating seasonal temperature and temperature extremes was evaluated over the historical period of 1991–99 at a 12-km spatial resolution over China and a 3-km resolution over the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei(JJJ)region,a typical urban agglomeration of China.Simulations of spatial distributions of temperature extremes over the JJJ region using RegCM4 with hydrostatic and non-hydrostatic cores showed high spatial correlations of more than 0.8 with the observations.Under a warming climate,temperature extremes of annual maximum daily temperature(TXx)and summer days(SU)in China and the JJJ region showed obvious increases by the end of the 21st century while there was a general reduction in frost days(FD).The ensemble of RegCM4 with different land surface components was used to examine population exposure to temperature extremes over the JJJ region.Population exposure to temperature extremes was found to decrease in 2091−99 relative to 1991−99 over the majority of the JJJ region due to the joint impacts of increases in temperature extremes over the JJJ and population decreases over the JJJ region,except for downtown areas.Furthermore,changes in population exposure to temperature extremes were mainly dominated by future population changes.Finally,we quantified changes in exposure to temperature extremes with temperature increase over the JJJ region.This study helps to provide relevant policies to respond future climate risks over the JJJ region.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China NSFC (Grant Nos.91837310,42061134009,41775146)the USTC Research Funds of the Double First-Class Initiative (YD2080002007)the Strategic Priority Research Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (XDB41000000)
文摘The non-hydrostatic global variable resolution model(MPAS-atmosphere)is used to conduct the simulations for the South Asian Summer monsoon season(June,July,and August)in 2015 with a refinement over the Tibetan Plateau(TP)at the convection-permitting scale(4 km).Two experiments with different topographical datasets,complex(4-km)and smooth(60-km)topography,are designed to investigate the impacts of topographical complexity on moisture transport and precipitation.Compared with the observations and reanalysis data,the simulation can successfully capture the general features of key meteorological fields over the TP despite slightly underestimating the inflow through the southern TP.The results indicate that the complex topography can decrease the inward and outward moisture transport,ultimately increasing the total net moisture transport into the TP by~11%.The impacts of complex topography on precipitation are negligible over the TP,but the spatial distributions of precipitation over the Himalayas are significantly modulated.With the inclusion of complex topography,the sharper southern slopes of the Himalayas shift the lifted airflow and hence precipitation northward compared to the smooth topography.In addition,more small-scale valleys are resolved by the inclusion of complex topography,which serve as channels for moisture transport across the Himalayas,further favoring a northward shift of precipitation.Overall,the difference between the two experiments with different topography datasets is mainly attributed to their differing representation of the degree of the southern slopes of the Himalayas and the extent to which the valleys are resolved.
文摘This research studies the capability of the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with the Chemistry/Aerosol module(WRF-Chem)with and without parametrization to reproduce a dust storm,which was held on 27th June 2018 over Sahara region.The authors use satellite observations and ground-based measurements to evaluate the WRF-Chem simulations.The sensitivities of WRF-Chem Model are tested on the replication of haboob features with a tuned GOCART aerosol module.Comparisons of simulations with satellite and ground-based observations show that WRF-Chem is able to reproduce the Aerosol Optical Depth(AOD)distribution and associated changes of haboob in the meteorological fields with temperature drops of about 9℃and wind gust 20 m·s–1.The WRF-Chem Convec-tion-permitting model(CPM)shows strong 10-meter winds induced a large dust emission along the leading edge of a convective cold pool(LECCP).The CPM indicates heavy dust transported over the West African coast(16°W-10°W;6°N-21°N)which has a potential for long-distance travel on 27th June between 1100 UTC and 1500 UTC.The daily precipitation is improved in the CPM with a spatial distribution similar to the GPM-IMERG precipitation and maxi-mum rainfall located at the right place.As well as raising a large amount of dust,the haboob caused considerable dam-age along its route.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1501803)National Natural Science Foundation of China(41975128 and 41875060)。
文摘Local breeding of growing modes(LBGM)is a method used to generate initial condition perturbation(ICP)for convection-permitting ensemble forecasts.Equal weights(EWs)are usually presumed in LBGM during the localization of ICP,without considering different contributions of the grid points within the local radius.To address this problem,Gaussian weights(GWs)are proposed in this study,which can accommodate the varied influences of the grids inside the local radius on the central grid through a Gaussian function.Specifically,two convection-permitting ensemble forecast experiments based on LBGM with GWs and EWs are compared and analyzed respectively for two squall line cases.The results showed that the use of the GWs intensified the local characteristics of the ICP and made the distribution of the ICP fields more flow-dependent.Kinetic energy spectrum of the ICP indicated that there could be more large-scale information in the ICP by using the GWs.In addition,mesoscale information also improved slightly.For forecast of nonprecipitation variables,GWs improved the relationship between the root-mean-square error and the spread and contributed to the forecasting accuracy of wind,temperature,geopotential height,and humidity.For the precipitation forecast,GWs simulated the precipitation structure successfully and provided better probability forecasting during the evolution of the two squall line processes than the EWs.
基金supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences(XDB41000000)the Research Funds of the Double First-Class Initiative of University of Science and Technology of China(YD2080002007)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(91837310,42061134009,and 41775146)。
文摘During the era of global warming and highly urbanized development,extreme and high impact weather as well as air pollution incidents influence everyday life and might even cause the incalculable loss of life and property.Despite the vast development of atmospheric models,there still exist substantial numerical forecast biases objectively.To accurately predict extreme weather,severe air pollution,and abrupt climate change,numerical atmospheric model requires not only to simulate meteorology and atmospheric compositions simultaneously involving many sophisticated physical and chemical processes but also at high spatiotemporal resolution.Global integrated atmospheric simulation at spatial resolutions of a few kilometers remains challenging due to its intensive computational and input/output(I/O)requirement.Through multi-dimension-parallelism structuring,aggressive and finer-grained optimizing,manual vectorizing,and parallelized I/O fragmenting,an integrated Atmospheric Model Across Scales(iAMAS)was established on the new Sunway supercomputer platform to significantly increase the computational efficiency and reduce the I/O cost.The global 3-km atmospheric simulation for meteorology with online integrated aerosol feedbacks with iAMAS was scaled to 39,000,000 processor cores and achieved the speed of 0.82 simulation day per hour(SDPH)with routine I/O,which enabled us to perform 5-day global weather forecast at 3-km horizontal resolution with online natural aerosol impacts.The results demonstrate the promising future that the increasing of spatial resolution to a few kilometers with online integrated aerosol feedbacks may significantly improve the global weather forecast.
文摘利用单一的客观评估方法并不能有效揭示预报误差来源。利用逐小时5 km格点融合降水产品,本研究使用了多种客观评估方法综合评估了南京大学2016年夏季汛期试验4 km与12 km WRF模式。整体上,两种分辨率都能成功地预报主雨带,4 km WRF在午后对流及复杂地形预报上更优。比较了各类客观评估方法,邻域法显示4 km WRF预报准确性更高,但对于强降水(≥13 mm·(6 h)^(-1)),两种模式预报的空间误差都较大。尺度分离法显示,对于小尺度系统,4 km WRF能较好再现对流但存在较大位置误差,而12 km WRF则漏报。MODE法(Method for Object-based Diagnostic Evaluation)显示4 km WRF在对象强度预报上更接近观测,但强度和范围偏大,导致华南偏强,而范围偏小造成江淮偏弱,12 km WRF低估主要是漏报。不同评估方法能清晰展示4 km WRF和12 km WRF预报误差的差异,为后续模式改进提供了重要参考。
文摘边界层参数化方案的准确性会影响模式对近地面变量和大气低层热动力结构的模拟,对雷暴等强对流天气的预报非常重要,但边界层方案内在的不确定性使得单一预报具有局限性。为了提高对流尺度数值模式中边界层方案的预报效果,基于WRF(The Weather Research and Forecasting Model)模式,应用随机参数扰动(SPP)方法对Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi-Niino(MYNN)边界层方案中重要的3个不确定参数进行扰动,探究了该方法对北京地区一次雷暴过程模拟的影响。同时考虑了对流尺度集合预报系统的特点,调整随机参数扰动方法的3个参量(去相关时间尺度、空间尺度和格点标准差)探究了对流尺度中对MYNN方案参数进行扰动的最优设置。结果显示:随机扰动MYNN边界层方案参数(SPPM)方法可以有效提高近地面变量和700 hPa以下低层变量的离散度,同时提高了短时强降水位置和强度的预报技巧。3个参量的试验说明,去相关时间尺度增大到12 h集合离散度有明显提高;格点标准差增大到0.20,预报技巧也略有提高;去相关空间尺度维持在默认值700 km较好,尺度过小(150 km)预报技巧明显降低。上述结果表明,在对流尺度中SPPM方法可以有效表达边界层参数化方案的不确定性,提高集合预报系统的预报技巧。
基金primarily supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41975124,41730965)the National Key Research and Development Program of China(Grant No.2018YFC1507604)。
文摘During 19–21 July 2021,an extreme rainfall event occurred in Henan Province,China,during which a recordbreaking maximum hourly rainfall of 201.9 mm was recorded in Zhengzhou at 09 UTC July 20.In this study,the predictability of this extreme rainfall event is investigated using two convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems(CEFSs):one initialized from NCEP GEFS(named CEFS_GEFS)and the other initialized from time-lagged ERA5 data(named CEFS_ERA).Both are able to reproduce the daily heavy rainfall along the Taihang Mountains,but most members have significant position biases for the extreme rainfall in Zhengzhou.For the hourly rainfall,a few members are able to capture the evolution and propagation of extreme rainfall.However,all ensemble members underestimate the extreme hourly rainfall and have position errors of a few tens to a few hundreds of kilometers.Such results suggest that the predictability of the extreme hourly rainfall at the accuracy of city scale in Zhengzhou is low,especially by deterministic forecasting models,and the occurrence of the extreme requires many favorable conditions to happen simultaneously.In terms of the Brier score,CEFS_GEFS performs better than CEFS_ERA.The latter lacks spread,especially in regions with scarce rain,resulting in less dispersion in precipitation distributions and larger probability forecast error.When a neighborhood is applied,the probability of precipitation(POP)is significantly increased over Zhengzhou.While the traditional POP shows almost no skill for hourly rainfall≥25 mm h-1,the neighborhood POP significantly improves the forecast skill score,for both daily and hourly rainfall,suggesting higher predictability when spatial error among the ensemble members is allowed.
