In the seismic safety evaluation (SSE) for key projects, the probability-consistent spectrum (PCS), usually obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), is not consistent with the design response spectr...In the seismic safety evaluation (SSE) for key projects, the probability-consistent spectrum (PCS), usually obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), is not consistent with the design response spectrum given by Code for Seismic Design of Buildings (GB50011-2001). Sometimes, there may be a remarkable difference be-tween them. If the PCS is lower than the corresponding code design response spectrum (CDS), the seismic fortifi-cation criterion for the key projects would be lower than that for the general industry and civil buildings. In the paper, the relation between PCS and CDS is discussed by using the ideal simple potential seismic source. The re-sults show that in the most areas influenced mainly by the potential sources of the epicentral earthquakes and the regional earthquakes, PCS is generally lower than CDS in the long periods. We point out that the long-period re-sponse spectra of the code should be further studied and combined with the probability method of seismic zoning as much as possible. Because of the uncertainties in SSE, it should be prudent to use the long-period response spectra given by SSE for key projects when they are lower than CDS.展开更多
It is pointed out in this paper that the concept of scenario earthquake, expectant earthquake or proposed earthquake suggested by Kameda Nojima (1988) is not probability consistent due to unfit understanding for the ...It is pointed out in this paper that the concept of scenario earthquake, expectant earthquake or proposed earthquake suggested by Kameda Nojima (1988) is not probability consistent due to unfit understanding for the aseismic design standard of probabilistic method. The corresponding concept proposed by QI FENG LUO meets the meaning of probability consistent, but it is still in a meaning of average so the result is not good enough. On the basis of above analysis, a concept of probability consistent conservative earthquakes is suggested. And a new method selecting aseismic objective earthquake with physical meaning is proposed on the basis of probabilistic method. After seismic hazard is analysed by certain control parameters, such as peak acceleration, we can determine the aseismic standard according to certain probabilistic level. Based on the attenuation law and the potential sources, we can find out some earthquakes or their combinations of magnitudes and distances. Such earthquakes or combinations are probability consistent for this control parameter. Based on above parameter, we suggest considering the destructive effects of other parameters (such as response spectrum), and selecting conservative earthquakes to replace the average earthquake and meet the requirements of aseismic design better.展开更多
In this paper, a new method for seismic hazard analysis, the probability-consistent method based on practical ground surface motion is proposed. Time histories on ground surface in the method correspond to earthquakes...In this paper, a new method for seismic hazard analysis, the probability-consistent method based on practical ground surface motion is proposed. Time histories on ground surface in the method correspond to earthquakes occurring at potential sources around sites. So of the envelope parameter, response spectrum, peak ground acceleration are of physical sense. Neglecting the response of site soil layers, the method is the same as routine probability-consistent method. The natural seismic acceleration time histories can be used for input wave directly. Generating ground motion is an approximation under lack of data of strong motion. Along with accumulating of the strong motion data around sites, we can describe the seismic environment more objectively.展开更多
Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair...Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is arbitrarily dependent.Under some mild conditions,we achieve a locally uniform approximation of the finite-time ruin probability for all time horizon within a finite interval.If we further assume that each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is negative quadrant dependent and the two classes of claims are consistently-varying-tailed,it shows that the above obtained approximation is also globally uniform for all time horizon within an infinite interval.展开更多
文摘In the seismic safety evaluation (SSE) for key projects, the probability-consistent spectrum (PCS), usually obtained from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), is not consistent with the design response spectrum given by Code for Seismic Design of Buildings (GB50011-2001). Sometimes, there may be a remarkable difference be-tween them. If the PCS is lower than the corresponding code design response spectrum (CDS), the seismic fortifi-cation criterion for the key projects would be lower than that for the general industry and civil buildings. In the paper, the relation between PCS and CDS is discussed by using the ideal simple potential seismic source. The re-sults show that in the most areas influenced mainly by the potential sources of the epicentral earthquakes and the regional earthquakes, PCS is generally lower than CDS in the long periods. We point out that the long-period re-sponse spectra of the code should be further studied and combined with the probability method of seismic zoning as much as possible. Because of the uncertainties in SSE, it should be prudent to use the long-period response spectra given by SSE for key projects when they are lower than CDS.
文摘It is pointed out in this paper that the concept of scenario earthquake, expectant earthquake or proposed earthquake suggested by Kameda Nojima (1988) is not probability consistent due to unfit understanding for the aseismic design standard of probabilistic method. The corresponding concept proposed by QI FENG LUO meets the meaning of probability consistent, but it is still in a meaning of average so the result is not good enough. On the basis of above analysis, a concept of probability consistent conservative earthquakes is suggested. And a new method selecting aseismic objective earthquake with physical meaning is proposed on the basis of probabilistic method. After seismic hazard is analysed by certain control parameters, such as peak acceleration, we can determine the aseismic standard according to certain probabilistic level. Based on the attenuation law and the potential sources, we can find out some earthquakes or their combinations of magnitudes and distances. Such earthquakes or combinations are probability consistent for this control parameter. Based on above parameter, we suggest considering the destructive effects of other parameters (such as response spectrum), and selecting conservative earthquakes to replace the average earthquake and meet the requirements of aseismic design better.
文摘In this paper, a new method for seismic hazard analysis, the probability-consistent method based on practical ground surface motion is proposed. Time histories on ground surface in the method correspond to earthquakes occurring at potential sources around sites. So of the envelope parameter, response spectrum, peak ground acceleration are of physical sense. Neglecting the response of site soil layers, the method is the same as routine probability-consistent method. The natural seismic acceleration time histories can be used for input wave directly. Generating ground motion is an approximation under lack of data of strong motion. Along with accumulating of the strong motion data around sites, we can describe the seismic environment more objectively.
基金Supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China(12071487,11671404)the Natural Science Foundation of Anhui Province(2208085MA06)+1 种基金the Provincial Natural Science Research Project of Anhui Colleges(KJ2021A0049,KJ2021A0060)Hunan Provincial Innovation Foundation for Postgraduate(CX20200146)。
文摘Consider a nonstandard continuous-time bidimensional risk model with constant force of interest,in which the two classes of claims with subexponential distributions satisfy a general dependence structure and each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is arbitrarily dependent.Under some mild conditions,we achieve a locally uniform approximation of the finite-time ruin probability for all time horizon within a finite interval.If we further assume that each pair of the claim-inter-arrival times is negative quadrant dependent and the two classes of claims are consistently-varying-tailed,it shows that the above obtained approximation is also globally uniform for all time horizon within an infinite interval.
