The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) was formally signed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) countries, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. This was a si...The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) was formally signed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) countries, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. This was a significant step towards regional integration in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysing the trade structure among member states is crucial in understanding the path to regional integration and policy implications of regional cooperation within the RCEP framework. Based on subdivided commodity data, this study reviews the evolution of merchandise trade in the RCEP region in the past two decades. It investigates the current trade structure of the RCEP, emphasising the relative importance of intra-regional versus extra-regional interdependence and the trade asymmetry of the regional members. The results of the study are as follows: First, the overall extent of regional trade integration in the RCEP region increased modestly from 2001 to 2018, indicating that the RCEP region was export-oriented and there was significant room for further expansion of regional trade. Second, most of the commodities traded in the RCEP region demonstrated much higher extra-regional interdependence than intra-regional in 2018, particularly labor-, capital-, and technology-intensive products such as television and radio apparatus. Third, the trade networks of the top five traded commodities were distinguished by large economic asymmetries, with China, Japan, and South Korea being the dominant regional powers. These findings have significant implications for understanding how to promote regional integration and cooperation. Besides expanding intra-regional trade, outward-oriented factors influenced by the regional powers—including consolidating the global advantages of manufacturing, stabilizing supply chains by including large resource countries, and attracting extra-regional investments—were also the main rationales for the conclusion of the RCEP.展开更多
Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a prox...Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies,taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks.The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables.Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output.This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies,while the transmission path did not change.The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle,although it does not drive the global financial cycle.展开更多
基金The Program of High-gradePrecision and Advanced Disciplines Constructions in Beijing Universities。
文摘The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership(RCEP) was formally signed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations(ASEAN) countries, along with China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand. This was a significant step towards regional integration in the Asia-Pacific region. Analysing the trade structure among member states is crucial in understanding the path to regional integration and policy implications of regional cooperation within the RCEP framework. Based on subdivided commodity data, this study reviews the evolution of merchandise trade in the RCEP region in the past two decades. It investigates the current trade structure of the RCEP, emphasising the relative importance of intra-regional versus extra-regional interdependence and the trade asymmetry of the regional members. The results of the study are as follows: First, the overall extent of regional trade integration in the RCEP region increased modestly from 2001 to 2018, indicating that the RCEP region was export-oriented and there was significant room for further expansion of regional trade. Second, most of the commodities traded in the RCEP region demonstrated much higher extra-regional interdependence than intra-regional in 2018, particularly labor-, capital-, and technology-intensive products such as television and radio apparatus. Third, the trade networks of the top five traded commodities were distinguished by large economic asymmetries, with China, Japan, and South Korea being the dominant regional powers. These findings have significant implications for understanding how to promote regional integration and cooperation. Besides expanding intra-regional trade, outward-oriented factors influenced by the regional powers—including consolidating the global advantages of manufacturing, stabilizing supply chains by including large resource countries, and attracting extra-regional investments—were also the main rationales for the conclusion of the RCEP.
基金support from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.71803008)the Fundamental Research Funds for Central Universities(No.2022QNPY32).
文摘Spillovers from China's monetary policy have become increasingly obvious with China's growing importance in the global economy and its close economic and trade ties with the world.This study establishes a proxy structure vector autoregression model to investigate the magnitude and transmission channel of spillovers from China to global and regional economies,taking advantage of high-frequency changes in asset prices in the financial markets to identify monetary policy shocks.The analysis reveals that China's monetary policy can affect the global economy by influencing international trade and commodity prices but there is no evidence of China's monetary policy affecting global financial variables.Tightness in China's monetary policy can cause a decline in world output whereas expansion in monetary policy can support global trade and output.This study also finds that the response of emerging Asian economies to China's monetary policy shock was nearly twice that of developed economies,while the transmission path did not change.The results of this study are consistent with the stylized fact that China's monetary policy plays an important role in the global trade and commodity cycle,although it does not drive the global financial cycle.
