In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident ...In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident indexes have higher correlations with gross domestic product(GDP) growth rates than the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC) coincident index over the sample period between February2005 and May 2012.The peaks and troughs of the growth rates in several indicators are identified.The total number of peaks and troughs in the resulting coincident index is the same with the CEMAC coincident index.Unfortunately,these troughs don't signify recessions in the Chinese economy because the financial system has not seen a negative growth rate over the specific sample periods.The impacts of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and subprime mortgage crisis on the business cycle could be dated via a smoother index from HP filtering to the coincident index.展开更多
With the background of China's fast growing economy, Internet has become a key factor to keep the economy go steadily. It is important to quantitatively analyze the whole Internet industry and hence master its dev...With the background of China's fast growing economy, Internet has become a key factor to keep the economy go steadily. It is important to quantitatively analyze the whole Internet industry and hence master its development direction clearly, which will provide regulators with reference for industry analysis, policy formulation, and policy evaluation. This article re-constructs the calculation method of traditional Prosperity Indexes, and builds up a new indicators portfolio for Internet Industry Prosperity Indexes. By calculation, the Internet Industry Coincidence Index value is 105.9. And the Leading Index and Coincidence Index are all within the up-going range, which suggests that China's Internet Industry is likely to remain in its usual fast growing state.展开更多
基金the support provided by Ford Foundation,Stanford SCID and National Planning Office of Philosophy and Social Science(Approval No.12 & ZD038)
文摘In reference to the method of the Conference Board,the coincident indexes for China are constructed from a sample period between January 1990 and May 2012 and by51 chosen component indicators.The resulting coincident indexes have higher correlations with gross domestic product(GDP) growth rates than the China Economic Monitoring and Analysis Center(CEMAC) coincident index over the sample period between February2005 and May 2012.The peaks and troughs of the growth rates in several indicators are identified.The total number of peaks and troughs in the resulting coincident index is the same with the CEMAC coincident index.Unfortunately,these troughs don't signify recessions in the Chinese economy because the financial system has not seen a negative growth rate over the specific sample periods.The impacts of the Southeast Asian Financial Crisis and subprime mortgage crisis on the business cycle could be dated via a smoother index from HP filtering to the coincident index.
文摘With the background of China's fast growing economy, Internet has become a key factor to keep the economy go steadily. It is important to quantitatively analyze the whole Internet industry and hence master its development direction clearly, which will provide regulators with reference for industry analysis, policy formulation, and policy evaluation. This article re-constructs the calculation method of traditional Prosperity Indexes, and builds up a new indicators portfolio for Internet Industry Prosperity Indexes. By calculation, the Internet Industry Coincidence Index value is 105.9. And the Leading Index and Coincidence Index are all within the up-going range, which suggests that China's Internet Industry is likely to remain in its usual fast growing state.
