Objective： To provide an evidence-based, consistent assessment of the burden of breast cancer attributable to reproductive factors （RFs, including nulliparity, mean number of children, age at first birth and breastf...Objective： To provide an evidence-based, consistent assessment of the burden of breast cancer attributable to reproductive factors （RFs, including nulliparity, mean number of children, age at first birth and breastfeeding）, use of oral contraceptives （OCs, restricted to the age group of 15-49 years）, and hormone replacement therapy （HRT）, as well as of the burden of ovarian cancer attributable to the mean number of children in China in 2005. Methods： We derived the prevalence of these risk factors and the relative risk of breast and ovarian cancer from national surveys or large-scale studies conducted in China. In the case of RFs, we compared the exposure distributions in 2001 and counterfactual exposure. Results： Exposure of RFs in 2002 was found to account for 6.74% of breast cancer, corresponding to 9,617 cases and 2,769 deaths, and for 2.78% of ovarian cancer （712 cases, 294 deaths）. The decrease in mean number of children alone was responsible for 1.47% of breast cancer and 2.78% of ovarian cancer. The prevalence of OC use was 1.74% and the population attributable fraction （PAF） of breast cancer was 0.71%, corresponding to 310 cases and 90 deaths. The PAF of breast cancer due to HRT was 0.31%, resulting in 297 cases and 85 deaths. Conclusion： RFs changes in China contributed to a sizable fraction of breast and ovarian cancer incidence and mortality, whereas HRT and OCs accounted for relatively low incidence of breast cancer in China.展开更多
AIM To study the impact of hospital-acquired infections(HAIs) on cost and outcome from intensive care units(ICU) in India. METHODS Adult patients(> 18 years) admitted over 1-year, to a 24-bed medical critical care ...AIM To study the impact of hospital-acquired infections(HAIs) on cost and outcome from intensive care units(ICU) in India. METHODS Adult patients(> 18 years) admitted over 1-year, to a 24-bed medical critical care unit in India, were enrolled prospectively. Treatment cost and outcome data were collected. This cost data was merged with HAI data collected prospectively by the Hospital Infection Control Committee. Only infections occurring during ICU stay were included. The impact of HAI on treatment cost and mortality was assessed. RESULTS The mean(± SD) age of the cohort(n = 499) was42.3 ± 16.5 years. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-Ⅱ score was 13.9(95%CI: 13.3-14.5); 86% were ventilated. ICU and hospital length of stay were 7.8 ± 5.5 and 13.9 ± 10 d respectively. Hospital mortality was 27.9%. During ICU stay, 76(15.3%) patients developed an infection(ventilator-associated pneumonia 50; bloodstream infection 35; urinary tract infections 3), translating to 19.7 infections/1000 ICU days. When compared with those who did not develop an infection, an infection occurring during ICU stay was associated with significantly higher treatment cost [median(inter-quartile range, IQR) INR 92893(USD 1523)(IQR 57168-140286) vs INR 180469(USD 2958)(IQR 140030-237525); P < 0.001 and longer duration of ICU(6.7 ± 4.5 d vs 13.4 ± 7.0 d; P < 0.01) and hospital stay(12.4 ± 8.2 d vs 21.8 ± 13.9 d; P < 0.001)]. However ICU acquired infections did not impact hospital mortality(31.6% vs 27.2%; P = 0.49).CONCLUSION An infection acquired during ICU stay was associated with doubling of treatment cost and prolonged hospitalization but did not significantly increase mortality.展开更多
Objective To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter （PM2.5） pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. Methods The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were...Objective To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter （PM2.5） pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. Methods The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the ＆#39;Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013＇ dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years （DALYs） were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. Results The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 μg/m3 to 51.31 μg/m^3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 （8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females） in 2005 to 16489.3 （11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females） in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. Conclusion PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.展开更多
Objective:There is little information about contributions of the well-known risk factors to the liver cancer burden.We conducted a comparative study to estimate the liver cancer burden attributable to major risk facto...Objective:There is little information about contributions of the well-known risk factors to the liver cancer burden.We conducted a comparative study to estimate the liver cancer burden attributable to major risk factors.Methods:Liver cancer deaths for adults were estimated from 978 county-level surveillance points in China in2014.Risk factors were identified from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the World Cancer Research Fund International.Population attributable fraction(PAF)by age,sex,and province was calculated using multiple formulas.Results:In total,72.4%of liver cancer deaths could be attributable to the studied risk factors.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)was responsible for the largest fraction of liver cancer burden in both genders(PAF=55.6%in males,PAF=46.5%in females).PAFs for liver cancer burden attributable to smoking(15.7%vs.4.8%),and alcohol drinking(10.3%vs.1.6%)were significantly higher in males than in females.The burden of HBV-attributable deaths was the highest in Qinghai province.Conclusions:HBV still contributes to the majority of liver cancer burden than any other risk factors.Targeted preventive measures should be implemented based on the degree of contributions of risk factors to liver cancer deaths.展开更多
Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 ...Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.展开更多
Objective：To provide an evidence-based and consistent assessment of the burden of cancer attributable to inadequate fruit and vegetable intake in China in 2005.Methods：The proportions of cancers attributable to low ...Objective：To provide an evidence-based and consistent assessment of the burden of cancer attributable to inadequate fruit and vegetable intake in China in 2005.Methods：The proportions of cancers attributable to low consumption of vegetable and fruit were calculated separately to estimate the burden of related cancers for the year 2005 in China.Data on the prevalence of exposure were derived from a Chinese nutrition and health survey.Data on relative risks were mainly derived from meta-analysis.Attributable fractions were calculated based on the counterfactual scenario which was a shift in the exposure distribution.Results：The total cancer burden attributable to inadequate consumption of fruit was up to 233,000 deaths （13.0% of all cancers） and 300,000 cases （11.6% of all cancers） in 2005.Increasing consumption of vegetable to the highest quintile could avoid total cancer deaths and cases by 3.6% （64,000 persons） and 3.4% （88,000 persons）.The contributions to cancer burden were higher in rural areas than in urban areas.They have greater influence on men than on women.The largest proportions of cancer burden attributable to low fruit and vegetable intake were for oral and pharyngeal cancers.Conclusion：This study showed that inadequate intake of fruit and vegetable makes a significant contribution to the cancer burden.Increasing consumption of fruit and vegetable could prevent many cancer deaths and save many lives.Promoting the consumption of fruit and vegetable is an important component in diet-based strategies for preventing cancer.展开更多
With the largest ageing population in the world,China is faced with the huge chal-lenge of dementia.-However,previously reported estimates on the prevalence of dementia among Chinese older adults were inconsistent,var...With the largest ageing population in the world,China is faced with the huge chal-lenge of dementia.-However,previously reported estimates on the prevalence of dementia among Chinese older adults were inconsistent,varying from 2%to 13%.5°It is crucial for dementia prevention to determine the number of cases that could be delayed or prevented,but how to do this remains unclear.To address these research gaps,we aimed to provide population estimates of the prevalence of dementia in China and estimate the population attributable fractions(PAFs)of potentially modifiable risk factors.展开更多
Climate change has resulted in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold weather events,but few multicity or multicounty researches have explored the association between cold spells and mortality risk...Climate change has resulted in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold weather events,but few multicity or multicounty researches have explored the association between cold spells and mortality risk and burden.We collected daily data on climate,sociodemo-graphic factors and mortality in 18 cities/counties across 11 geographical regions for the period of November to March 2014-2018.A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to examine the association between cold spells and mortality after adjustment for confounding factors.Twelve definitions of cold spells were used.Multi-meta regression analysis was applied to pool the impacts over different regions.Cold spells were significantly associated with all-cause mortality at lag 0-21(CRR:1.38,95%CI:1.21,1.57).In addition to respiratory diseases and cir-culatory system diseases,digestive,endocrine and nervous system diseases and injury were also affected by cold spells.The magnitude of the impacts of cold spells on mortality varied among the diseases investigated,with the highest risk estimate found for influenza and pneumonia(CRR:2.00,95%CI:1.45,2.76)and the lowest estimate found for injury(CRR:1.26,95%CI:1.09,1.46).The fraction of all-cause mortality attributable to cold spells was 2.31%(95%CI:0.90%,3.46%).Among the regional differences,the attributable burden of all-cause mortality was higher in rural areas and subtropical monsoon climate zone,with attributable fractions of 2.85%(95%CI:1.23%,4.11%)and 3.36%(95%CI:0.55%,5.35%),respectively.Cold spells increased mortality from a range of diseases.Women,older adults and residents of rural areas and subtropical monsoon climate zone were more vulnerable to cold spells impacts.The findings may help to formulate preventive strategies and early warning response plans to reduce mortality burden of extreme cold events.展开更多
In the present paper we introduce the theory and algorithm of the unconditional and con-ditional age-dependent logistic regression model, which combines logistic regression analysisof case-control study with survival ...In the present paper we introduce the theory and algorithm of the unconditional and con-ditional age-dependent logistic regression model, which combines logistic regression analysisof case-control study with survival analysis of cases in the data, thus facilitating simulta-neous comparison analysis between cases and controls and among cases with different ages ofdisease onset under study. In age-dependent logistic regression analysis, estimated compoundrelative risk (CRR) and compound attributable risk (CAR)comprise the variance contribu-tions of risk factors to disease occurrence and the time of disease onset, thereby the roleplayed by various risk factors in etiology and etiopathology can be objectively evaluated.The current logistic regression model is only a particular case of age-dependent logistic re-gression theory neglecting the variations in onset age of diseases.展开更多
Rationale: Excess alcohol use (EAU) is associated with adverse TB treatment outcomes. Objective: We investigated the relationship between EAU and death among TB patients 15 years and older prescribed anti-TB treatment...Rationale: Excess alcohol use (EAU) is associated with adverse TB treatment outcomes. Objective: We investigated the relationship between EAU and death among TB patients 15 years and older prescribed anti-TB treatment in the United States. Design: Using data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System for 1997-2012, we calculated adjusted odds ratios and excess attributable risk percent for death among TB patients with reported EAU. Results: EAU was associated with death among patients younger than 65. The excess attributable risk percent for death among those with reported EAU for those younger than 65 was >35%. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce EAU in patients <65 years may reduce deaths.展开更多
<strong>Background:</strong><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and ...<strong>Background:</strong><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and the third due to disability. However, there are few data available that identify the risk factors associated with it and their weight in different populations (population risk). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Aim: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Contribute to the knowledge of burden risk factors in stroke </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in a large cohort of Southern Italy</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Methods</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">: The data refer to a randomized Campania cohort of 1200 subjects (35</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">74 years) enrolled in 2008-09. Ten years later (2018-19) they were re-evaluated. We analyzed data from 32 patients who reported a cerebrovascular event (stroke or TIA) with the event-free group of subjects (804 subjects: 378 men and 426 women). We evaluated: absolute risk, Odds Ratio (OR), Additional Risk (AR), Risk Attributable to the Population (PAR) and, finally, the Population Attributable risk Fraction (FAP). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results:</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> In the comparison between the two groups (patients with events and patients without events) the risk factors with statistically significant differences were: age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), BMI, cholesterol, triglycerides, glycemia and hyperinsulinemia. The ORs with the greatest impact were: blood glucose (5.1), BMI (3.3) and BPS (2.9). Linear regression analysis identified Glycemia and BMI as the only independent variables. The FAPs with the greatest impact were SBP (47.4%) and BMI (42.6%展开更多
Effect sizes are estimated from several study designs when the subjects are individually sampled. When the samples are the aggregate cluster of individuals, the within cluster correlation must be accounted for to cons...Effect sizes are estimated from several study designs when the subjects are individually sampled. When the samples are the aggregate cluster of individuals, the within cluster correlation must be accounted for to construct correct confidence intervals, and to conduct valid statistical inference. The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate statistical procedures for the estimation of the variance of the estimated attributable risk in parallel groups of clusters, and in a design dividing each of k clusters into two segments creating multiple sub-clusters. The estimated variance is the first order approximation and is obtained by the delta method. We apply the methodology and propose a Wald type confidence interval on the difference between two correlated attributable risks. We also construct a test on the hypothesis of equality of two correlated attributable risks. We evaluate the power of the proposed test via Monte-Carlo simulations.展开更多
Extreme rainfall events are rare in inland arid regions, but have exhibited an increasing trend in recent years, causing many casualties and substantial socioeconomic losses. A series of heavy rains that began on July...Extreme rainfall events are rare in inland arid regions, but have exhibited an increasing trend in recent years, causing many casualties and substantial socioeconomic losses. A series of heavy rains that began on July 31st, 2018, battered the Hami prefecture of eastern Xinjiang, China for four days. These rains sparked devastating floods, caused 20 deaths, eight missing, and the evacuation of about 5500 people. This study examines the extreme rainfall event in a historical context and explores the anthropogenic causes based on analysis of multiple datasets (i.e., the observed daily data, the global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, and the satellite cloud data) and several statistical techniques. Results show that this extraordinarily heavy rainfall was due mainly to the abnormal weather system (e.g., the abnormal subtropical high) that transported abundant water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the East China Sea crossed the high mountains and formed extreme rainfall in Hami prefecture, causing the reservoir to break and form a flood event with treat loss, which is a typical example of a comprehensive analysis of the extreme rainfall event in summer in Northwest China. Also, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) value was 1.00 when the 2018 July–August RX1day (11.52 mm) was marked as the threshold, supporting the claim of a significant anthropogenic influence on the risk of this extreme rainfall. The results offer insights into the variability of precipitation extremes in arid areas contributing to better manage water-related disasters.展开更多
Evidence of the impact of ambient temperatures on emergency ambulance calls (EACs) in developing countries contributes to the improvement and complete understanding of the acute health effects of temperatures. This st...Evidence of the impact of ambient temperatures on emergency ambulance calls (EACs) in developing countries contributes to the improvement and complete understanding of the acute health effects of temperatures. This study aimed to examine the impacts and burden of heat on EACs in China, quantify the contributions of regional modifiers, and identify the vulnerable populations. A semi-parametric generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the city-specific impacts of the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) on EACs in June–August in 2014–2017. Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to identify the vulnerable sub-populations. Meta-analysis was undertaken to illustrate the pooled associations. Further subgroup analysis, stratified by climate, latitude, and per capita disposable income (PCDI), and meta-regression analysis were conducted to explore the regional heterogeneity and quantify the contributions of possible modifiers. The city- and region-specific attributable fractions of EACs attributable to heat were calculated. Strong associations were observed between the daily Tmax and total EACs in all cities. A total of 11.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.2%–12.3%) of EACs were attributed to high temperatures in ten Chinese cities, and the central region with a low level of PCDI had the highest attributable fraction of 17.8% (95% CI: 17.2%–18.4%). People living in the central region with lower PCDI, and those aged 18–44 and 0–6 years were more vulnerable to heat than the others. The combined effects of PCDI, temperature, and latitude contributed 88.6% of the regional heterogeneity. The results complemented the understanding of the burden of EACs attributable to heat in developing countries and the quantitative contribution of regional modifiers.展开更多
Background:Epidemic models of sexually transmitted infections(STIs)are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction...Background:Epidemic models of sexually transmitted infections(STIs)are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction(tPAF)of unmet prevention and treatment needs within risk groups.However,evidence suggests that STI risk is dynamic over an individual’s sexual life course,which manifests as turnover between risk groups.We sought to examine the mechanisms by which turnover influences modelled projections of the tPAF of high risk groups.Methods:We developed a unifying,data-guided framework to simulate risk group turnover in deterministic,compartmental transmission models.We applied the framework to an illustrative model of an STI and examined the mechanisms by which risk group turnover influenced equilibrium prevalence across risk groups.We then fit a model with and without turnover to the same risk-stratified STI prevalence targets and compared the inferred level of risk heterogeneity and tPAF of the highest risk group projected by the two models.Results:The influence of turnover on group-specific prevalence was mediated by three main phenomena:movement of previously high risk individuals with the infection into lower risk groups;changes to herd effect in the highest risk group;and changes in the number of partnerships where transmission can occur.Faster turnover led to a smaller ratio of STI prevalence between the highest and lowest risk groups.Compared to the fitted model without turnover,the fitted model with turnover inferred greater risk heterogeneity and consistently projected a larger tPAF of the highest risk group over time.Implications:If turnover is not captured in epidemic models,the projected contribution of high risk groups,and thus,the potential impact of prioritizing interventions to address their needs,could be underestimated.To aid the next generation of tPAF models,data collection efforts to parameterize risk group turnover should be prioritized.展开更多
Objective: To investigate the prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW) and its risk factors. Methods: A follow-up study with 7, 872 couples was conducted from 1987 to 199o beginning from the time they got marriage l...Objective: To investigate the prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW) and its risk factors. Methods: A follow-up study with 7, 872 couples was conducted from 1987 to 199o beginning from the time they got marriage licenses in two districts defined in Shanghai. They were interviewed in the third month and again in the fifteenth month and in the fifth to sixth year afterwards individually at home. The total follow up rate reached 98%. Couple’s background characteristics as well as the information on their general health. reproductivc history and contraceptive use etc.. were collected dynamically. All of the single live births with term delivery were Included for data analysis in this paper. Adjusted odd ratios and population attributable risk (PAR%) were computed. Results: The prevalence of TLBW in Shanghai single term live births was 2. 0% (134,/6.573), represents 54. 7% (134/245) of the total low birth weights in our sam pie. Significant social and behaviour risk factors relating with TI-BW were wife’s dissat- isfaction with marriage; low education level of husband; co-residence with parents during pregnancy; heavy housework done by the wife while being pregnant. Significant biomedical risky factors were menarche age greater than 16 years old; maternal age at delivery greater than 29 years old; maternal body mass index less than 19. 8; wife suf- fered from serious disease prior to conceiving; having pregnancy complication; gestational weight gain less than 20 % of pre-pregnancy weight; having abortion, stillbirth and fetal death history. Conclusion: TL.BW constituted over half of all low birth weights in Shanghai. Special attention should be paid to the determinants mentioned above in TLBW intervention program. Improving couples’ economic and living condition and husband ’s education at tainment, and caloric supplementation with women while being pregnant would all be particularly effective in reducing the occurrence of TLBW in Shnaghai.展开更多
Population attributable fraction(PAF)refers to the proportion of all cases with a particular outcome in a population that could be prevented by eliminating a specific exposure.The authors of a recent paper evaluated t...Population attributable fraction(PAF)refers to the proportion of all cases with a particular outcome in a population that could be prevented by eliminating a specific exposure.The authors of a recent paper evaluated the prevalence and estimated the PAFs for risk factors of TB among elderly people in China[Inf Dis Poverty.2019;8:7].Confounding is inevitable in observational studies and Levin’s formula is of limited use in practice for unbiasedly estimating PAF.In a complex survey design,an unbiased estimation of the PAF can be calculated using a sample-weighted version of the Miettinen formula or a sample weighed parametric g-formula.With respect to causal interpretation of PAF in public health setting,computation of PAF is logical and practical when the exposure is amenable to intervention.展开更多
Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of driver demographic characteristics on the driving safety involving cell phone usages.Design/methodology/approach–A total of 1,432 crashes and 19,71...Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of driver demographic characteristics on the driving safety involving cell phone usages.Design/methodology/approach–A total of 1,432 crashes and 19,714 baselines were collected for the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 naturalistic driving research.The authors used a case-control approach to estimate the prevalence and the population attributable risk percentage.The mixed logistic regression model is used to evaluate the correlation between different driver demographic characteristics(age,driving experience or their combination)and the crash risk regarding cell phone engagements,as well as the correlation among the likelihood of the cell phone engagement during the driving,multiple driver demographic characteristics(gender,age and driving experience)and environment conditions.Findings–Senior drivers face an extremely high crash risk when distracted by cell phone during driving,but they are not involved in crashes at a large scale.On the contrary,cell phone usages account for a far larger percentage of total crashes for young drivers.Similarly,experienced drivers and experienced-middle-aged drivers seem less likely to be impacted by the cell phone while driving,and cell phone engagements are attributed to a lower percentage of total crashes for them.Furthermore,experienced,senior or male drivers are less likely to engage in cell phone-related secondary tasks while driving.Originality/value–The results provide support to guide countermeasures and vehicle design.展开更多
基金supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (Lyon, France) (No. CRA No GEE/08/19)supported in part by the Fogarty International Clinical Research Scholars and Fellows Program at Vanderbilt University (R24 TW007988)
文摘Objective： To provide an evidence-based, consistent assessment of the burden of breast cancer attributable to reproductive factors （RFs, including nulliparity, mean number of children, age at first birth and breastfeeding）, use of oral contraceptives （OCs, restricted to the age group of 15-49 years）, and hormone replacement therapy （HRT）, as well as of the burden of ovarian cancer attributable to the mean number of children in China in 2005. Methods： We derived the prevalence of these risk factors and the relative risk of breast and ovarian cancer from national surveys or large-scale studies conducted in China. In the case of RFs, we compared the exposure distributions in 2001 and counterfactual exposure. Results： Exposure of RFs in 2002 was found to account for 6.74% of breast cancer, corresponding to 9,617 cases and 2,769 deaths, and for 2.78% of ovarian cancer （712 cases, 294 deaths）. The decrease in mean number of children alone was responsible for 1.47% of breast cancer and 2.78% of ovarian cancer. The prevalence of OC use was 1.74% and the population attributable fraction （PAF） of breast cancer was 0.71%, corresponding to 310 cases and 90 deaths. The PAF of breast cancer due to HRT was 0.31%, resulting in 297 cases and 85 deaths. Conclusion： RFs changes in China contributed to a sizable fraction of breast and ovarian cancer incidence and mortality, whereas HRT and OCs accounted for relatively low incidence of breast cancer in China.
文摘AIM To study the impact of hospital-acquired infections(HAIs) on cost and outcome from intensive care units(ICU) in India. METHODS Adult patients(> 18 years) admitted over 1-year, to a 24-bed medical critical care unit in India, were enrolled prospectively. Treatment cost and outcome data were collected. This cost data was merged with HAI data collected prospectively by the Hospital Infection Control Committee. Only infections occurring during ICU stay were included. The impact of HAI on treatment cost and mortality was assessed. RESULTS The mean(± SD) age of the cohort(n = 499) was42.3 ± 16.5 years. Acute physiology and chronic health evaluation-Ⅱ score was 13.9(95%CI: 13.3-14.5); 86% were ventilated. ICU and hospital length of stay were 7.8 ± 5.5 and 13.9 ± 10 d respectively. Hospital mortality was 27.9%. During ICU stay, 76(15.3%) patients developed an infection(ventilator-associated pneumonia 50; bloodstream infection 35; urinary tract infections 3), translating to 19.7 infections/1000 ICU days. When compared with those who did not develop an infection, an infection occurring during ICU stay was associated with significantly higher treatment cost [median(inter-quartile range, IQR) INR 92893(USD 1523)(IQR 57168-140286) vs INR 180469(USD 2958)(IQR 140030-237525); P < 0.001 and longer duration of ICU(6.7 ± 4.5 d vs 13.4 ± 7.0 d; P < 0.01) and hospital stay(12.4 ± 8.2 d vs 21.8 ± 13.9 d; P < 0.001)]. However ICU acquired infections did not impact hospital mortality(31.6% vs 27.2%; P = 0.49).CONCLUSION An infection acquired during ICU stay was associated with doubling of treatment cost and prolonged hospitalization but did not significantly increase mortality.
基金supported by the Centre for Health Statistics Information,National Health and Family Planning Commission of the People’s Republic of China
文摘Objective To estimate the lung cancer burden that may be attributable to ambient fine particulate matter （PM2.5） pollution in Guangzhou city in China from 2005 to 2013. Methods The data regarding PM2.5 exposure were obtained from the ＆#39;Ambient air pollution exposure estimation for the Global Burden of Disease 2013＇ dataset at 0.1° ×0.1° spatial resolution. Disability-adjusted life years （DALYs） were estimated based on the information of mortality and incidence of lung cancer. Comparative risk analysis and integrated exposure-response function were used to estimate attributed disease burden. Results The population-weighted average concentration of PM2.5 was increased by 34.6% between 1990 and 2013, from 38.37 μg/m3 to 51.31 μg/m^3. The lung cancer DALYs in both men and women were increased by 36.2% from 2005 to 2013. The PM2.5 attributed lung cancer DALYs increased from 12105.0 （8181.0 for males and 3924.0 for females） in 2005 to 16489.3 （11291.7 for males and 5197.6 for females） in 2013. An average of 23.1% lung cancer burden was attributable to PM2.5 pollution in 2013. Conclusion PM2.5 has caused serious but under-appreciated public health burden in Guangzhou and the trend deteriorates. Effective strategies are needed to tackle this major public health problem.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81974492)Non-profit Central Research Institute Fund of Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences(No.2019PT320027)Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen(No.SZSM201911015)。
文摘Objective:There is little information about contributions of the well-known risk factors to the liver cancer burden.We conducted a comparative study to estimate the liver cancer burden attributable to major risk factors.Methods:Liver cancer deaths for adults were estimated from 978 county-level surveillance points in China in2014.Risk factors were identified from the International Agency for Research on Cancer and the World Cancer Research Fund International.Population attributable fraction(PAF)by age,sex,and province was calculated using multiple formulas.Results:In total,72.4%of liver cancer deaths could be attributable to the studied risk factors.Hepatitis B virus(HBV)was responsible for the largest fraction of liver cancer burden in both genders(PAF=55.6%in males,PAF=46.5%in females).PAFs for liver cancer burden attributable to smoking(15.7%vs.4.8%),and alcohol drinking(10.3%vs.1.6%)were significantly higher in males than in females.The burden of HBV-attributable deaths was the highest in Qinghai province.Conclusions:HBV still contributes to the majority of liver cancer burden than any other risk factors.Targeted preventive measures should be implemented based on the degree of contributions of risk factors to liver cancer deaths.
基金supported by the funds of Key Discipline and Specialty Foundation of Shanghai Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planningthe National Key Basic Research Program "973 project" (2015CB554000)grants from US National Institutes of Health (R37 CA070867, R01 CA82729, UM1CA173640, and UM1 CA182910)
文摘Objective： To evaluate the population attributable risks （PARs） between cigarette smoking and deaths of all causes, all cancers, lung cancer and other chronic diseases in urban Shanghai. Methods： In total, 61,480 men aged 40-74 years from 2002 to 2006 and 74,941 women aged 40-70 years from 1997 to 2000 were recruited to undergo baseline surveys in urban Shanghai, with response rates of 74.0% and 92.3%, respectively. A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to estimate relative risks （RRs） and 95% confidence intervals （95% CIs） of deaths associated with cigarette smoking. PARs and 95 % CIs for deaths were estimated from smoking exposure rates and the estimated RRs. Results： Cigarette smoking was responsible for 23.9% （95% CI： 19.4-28.3%） and 2.4% （95% Ch 1.6- 3.2%） of all deaths in men and women, respectively, in our study population. Respiratory disease had the highest PAR in men [37.5% （95% CI： 21.5-51.6%）], followed by cancer [31.3% （95% Ch 24.6-37.7%）] and cardiovascular disease （CVD） [24.1% （95% CI： 16.7-31.2%）]. While the top three PARs were 12.7% （95% CI： 6.1-19.3%）, 4.0% （95% CI： 2.4-5.6%）, and 1.1% （95% CI： 0.0-2.3%）, for respiratory disease, CVD, and cancer, respectively in women. For deaths of lung cancer, the PAR of smoking was 68.4% （95% CI： 58.2- 76.5%） in men. Conclusions： In urban Shanghai, 23.9% and 2.4% of all deaths in men and women could have been prevented if no people had smoked in the area. Effective control programs against cigarette smoking should be strongly advocated to reduce the increasing smoking-related death burden.
基金supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer (Lyon, France) grant CRA No GEE/08/19
文摘Objective：To provide an evidence-based and consistent assessment of the burden of cancer attributable to inadequate fruit and vegetable intake in China in 2005.Methods：The proportions of cancers attributable to low consumption of vegetable and fruit were calculated separately to estimate the burden of related cancers for the year 2005 in China.Data on the prevalence of exposure were derived from a Chinese nutrition and health survey.Data on relative risks were mainly derived from meta-analysis.Attributable fractions were calculated based on the counterfactual scenario which was a shift in the exposure distribution.Results：The total cancer burden attributable to inadequate consumption of fruit was up to 233,000 deaths （13.0% of all cancers） and 300,000 cases （11.6% of all cancers） in 2005.Increasing consumption of vegetable to the highest quintile could avoid total cancer deaths and cases by 3.6% （64,000 persons） and 3.4% （88,000 persons）.The contributions to cancer burden were higher in rural areas than in urban areas.They have greater influence on men than on women.The largest proportions of cancer burden attributable to low fruit and vegetable intake were for oral and pharyngeal cancers.Conclusion：This study showed that inadequate intake of fruit and vegetable makes a significant contribution to the cancer burden.Increasing consumption of fruit and vegetable could prevent many cancer deaths and save many lives.Promoting the consumption of fruit and vegetable is an important component in diet-based strategies for preventing cancer.
基金supported by the National Key R&D Program of China(2022YFC2010106)the Chinese Nutrition Society(CNS-NNSRG2021-61).
文摘With the largest ageing population in the world,China is faced with the huge chal-lenge of dementia.-However,previously reported estimates on the prevalence of dementia among Chinese older adults were inconsistent,varying from 2%to 13%.5°It is crucial for dementia prevention to determine the number of cases that could be delayed or prevented,but how to do this remains unclear.To address these research gaps,we aimed to provide population estimates of the prevalence of dementia in China and estimate the population attributable fractions(PAFs)of potentially modifiable risk factors.
基金the project of Scientific Investigation on Regional Climate-sensitive Diseases in China (grant number:2017FY101201)supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology for Basic Resource Survey。
文摘Climate change has resulted in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme cold weather events,but few multicity or multicounty researches have explored the association between cold spells and mortality risk and burden.We collected daily data on climate,sociodemo-graphic factors and mortality in 18 cities/counties across 11 geographical regions for the period of November to March 2014-2018.A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to examine the association between cold spells and mortality after adjustment for confounding factors.Twelve definitions of cold spells were used.Multi-meta regression analysis was applied to pool the impacts over different regions.Cold spells were significantly associated with all-cause mortality at lag 0-21(CRR:1.38,95%CI:1.21,1.57).In addition to respiratory diseases and cir-culatory system diseases,digestive,endocrine and nervous system diseases and injury were also affected by cold spells.The magnitude of the impacts of cold spells on mortality varied among the diseases investigated,with the highest risk estimate found for influenza and pneumonia(CRR:2.00,95%CI:1.45,2.76)and the lowest estimate found for injury(CRR:1.26,95%CI:1.09,1.46).The fraction of all-cause mortality attributable to cold spells was 2.31%(95%CI:0.90%,3.46%).Among the regional differences,the attributable burden of all-cause mortality was higher in rural areas and subtropical monsoon climate zone,with attributable fractions of 2.85%(95%CI:1.23%,4.11%)and 3.36%(95%CI:0.55%,5.35%),respectively.Cold spells increased mortality from a range of diseases.Women,older adults and residents of rural areas and subtropical monsoon climate zone were more vulnerable to cold spells impacts.The findings may help to formulate preventive strategies and early warning response plans to reduce mortality burden of extreme cold events.
文摘In the present paper we introduce the theory and algorithm of the unconditional and con-ditional age-dependent logistic regression model, which combines logistic regression analysisof case-control study with survival analysis of cases in the data, thus facilitating simulta-neous comparison analysis between cases and controls and among cases with different ages ofdisease onset under study. In age-dependent logistic regression analysis, estimated compoundrelative risk (CRR) and compound attributable risk (CAR)comprise the variance contribu-tions of risk factors to disease occurrence and the time of disease onset, thereby the roleplayed by various risk factors in etiology and etiopathology can be objectively evaluated.The current logistic regression model is only a particular case of age-dependent logistic re-gression theory neglecting the variations in onset age of diseases.
文摘Rationale: Excess alcohol use (EAU) is associated with adverse TB treatment outcomes. Objective: We investigated the relationship between EAU and death among TB patients 15 years and older prescribed anti-TB treatment in the United States. Design: Using data reported to the National Tuberculosis Surveillance System for 1997-2012, we calculated adjusted odds ratios and excess attributable risk percent for death among TB patients with reported EAU. Results: EAU was associated with death among patients younger than 65. The excess attributable risk percent for death among those with reported EAU for those younger than 65 was >35%. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce EAU in patients <65 years may reduce deaths.
文摘<strong>Background:</strong><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> Stroke is the second leading cause of death in the world and the third due to disability. However, there are few data available that identify the risk factors associated with it and their weight in different populations (population risk). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Aim: </span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Contribute to the knowledge of burden risk factors in stroke </span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">in a large cohort of Southern Italy</span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">. </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Methods</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">: The data refer to a randomized Campania cohort of 1200 subjects (35</span></span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:Verdana;">-</span><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> </span><span style="font-family:;" "=""><span style="font-family:Verdana;">74 years) enrolled in 2008-09. Ten years later (2018-19) they were re-evaluated. We analyzed data from 32 patients who reported a cerebrovascular event (stroke or TIA) with the event-free group of subjects (804 subjects: 378 men and 426 women). We evaluated: absolute risk, Odds Ratio (OR), Additional Risk (AR), Risk Attributable to the Population (PAR) and, finally, the Population Attributable risk Fraction (FAP). </span><b><span style="font-family:Verdana;">Results:</span></b><span style="font-family:Verdana;"> In the comparison between the two groups (patients with events and patients without events) the risk factors with statistically significant differences were: age, Systolic Blood Pressure (SBP), BMI, cholesterol, triglycerides, glycemia and hyperinsulinemia. The ORs with the greatest impact were: blood glucose (5.1), BMI (3.3) and BPS (2.9). Linear regression analysis identified Glycemia and BMI as the only independent variables. The FAPs with the greatest impact were SBP (47.4%) and BMI (42.6%
文摘Effect sizes are estimated from several study designs when the subjects are individually sampled. When the samples are the aggregate cluster of individuals, the within cluster correlation must be accounted for to construct correct confidence intervals, and to conduct valid statistical inference. The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate statistical procedures for the estimation of the variance of the estimated attributable risk in parallel groups of clusters, and in a design dividing each of k clusters into two segments creating multiple sub-clusters. The estimated variance is the first order approximation and is obtained by the delta method. We apply the methodology and propose a Wald type confidence interval on the difference between two correlated attributable risks. We also construct a test on the hypothesis of equality of two correlated attributable risks. We evaluate the power of the proposed test via Monte-Carlo simulations.
基金This study was sponsored by the Project of Tianshan Innovation Team in Xinjiang(202113050)the Chinese Academy of Sciences President's International Fellowship Initiative(2017VCA0002).
文摘Extreme rainfall events are rare in inland arid regions, but have exhibited an increasing trend in recent years, causing many casualties and substantial socioeconomic losses. A series of heavy rains that began on July 31st, 2018, battered the Hami prefecture of eastern Xinjiang, China for four days. These rains sparked devastating floods, caused 20 deaths, eight missing, and the evacuation of about 5500 people. This study examines the extreme rainfall event in a historical context and explores the anthropogenic causes based on analysis of multiple datasets (i.e., the observed daily data, the global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), the NCEP/NCAR Reanalysis 1, and the satellite cloud data) and several statistical techniques. Results show that this extraordinarily heavy rainfall was due mainly to the abnormal weather system (e.g., the abnormal subtropical high) that transported abundant water vapor from the Indian Ocean and the East China Sea crossed the high mountains and formed extreme rainfall in Hami prefecture, causing the reservoir to break and form a flood event with treat loss, which is a typical example of a comprehensive analysis of the extreme rainfall event in summer in Northwest China. Also, the fraction of attributable risk (FAR) value was 1.00 when the 2018 July–August RX1day (11.52 mm) was marked as the threshold, supporting the claim of a significant anthropogenic influence on the risk of this extreme rainfall. The results offer insights into the variability of precipitation extremes in arid areas contributing to better manage water-related disasters.
基金This study was supported by the Special Foundation of Basic Science and Technology Resources Survey from the Ministry of Science and Technology of China(2017FY101201,2017FY101206).
文摘Evidence of the impact of ambient temperatures on emergency ambulance calls (EACs) in developing countries contributes to the improvement and complete understanding of the acute health effects of temperatures. This study aimed to examine the impacts and burden of heat on EACs in China, quantify the contributions of regional modifiers, and identify the vulnerable populations. A semi-parametric generalized additive model with a Poisson distribution was used to analyze the city-specific impacts of the daily maximum temperature (Tmax) on EACs in June–August in 2014–2017. Stratified analyses by sex and age were performed to identify the vulnerable sub-populations. Meta-analysis was undertaken to illustrate the pooled associations. Further subgroup analysis, stratified by climate, latitude, and per capita disposable income (PCDI), and meta-regression analysis were conducted to explore the regional heterogeneity and quantify the contributions of possible modifiers. The city- and region-specific attributable fractions of EACs attributable to heat were calculated. Strong associations were observed between the daily Tmax and total EACs in all cities. A total of 11.7% (95% confidence interval (CI): 11.2%–12.3%) of EACs were attributed to high temperatures in ten Chinese cities, and the central region with a low level of PCDI had the highest attributable fraction of 17.8% (95% CI: 17.2%–18.4%). People living in the central region with lower PCDI, and those aged 18–44 and 0–6 years were more vulnerable to heat than the others. The combined effects of PCDI, temperature, and latitude contributed 88.6% of the regional heterogeneity. The results complemented the understanding of the burden of EACs attributable to heat in developing countries and the quantitative contribution of regional modifiers.
基金The study was supported by the National Institutes of Health,Grant number:NR016650the Center for AIDS Research,Johns Hopkins University through the National Institutes of Health,Grant number:P30AI094189.
文摘Background:Epidemic models of sexually transmitted infections(STIs)are often used to characterize the contribution of risk groups to overall transmission by projecting the transmission population attributable fraction(tPAF)of unmet prevention and treatment needs within risk groups.However,evidence suggests that STI risk is dynamic over an individual’s sexual life course,which manifests as turnover between risk groups.We sought to examine the mechanisms by which turnover influences modelled projections of the tPAF of high risk groups.Methods:We developed a unifying,data-guided framework to simulate risk group turnover in deterministic,compartmental transmission models.We applied the framework to an illustrative model of an STI and examined the mechanisms by which risk group turnover influenced equilibrium prevalence across risk groups.We then fit a model with and without turnover to the same risk-stratified STI prevalence targets and compared the inferred level of risk heterogeneity and tPAF of the highest risk group projected by the two models.Results:The influence of turnover on group-specific prevalence was mediated by three main phenomena:movement of previously high risk individuals with the infection into lower risk groups;changes to herd effect in the highest risk group;and changes in the number of partnerships where transmission can occur.Faster turnover led to a smaller ratio of STI prevalence between the highest and lowest risk groups.Compared to the fitted model without turnover,the fitted model with turnover inferred greater risk heterogeneity and consistently projected a larger tPAF of the highest risk group over time.Implications:If turnover is not captured in epidemic models,the projected contribution of high risk groups,and thus,the potential impact of prioritizing interventions to address their needs,could be underestimated.To aid the next generation of tPAF models,data collection efforts to parameterize risk group turnover should be prioritized.
文摘Objective: To investigate the prevalence of term low birth weight (TLBW) and its risk factors. Methods: A follow-up study with 7, 872 couples was conducted from 1987 to 199o beginning from the time they got marriage licenses in two districts defined in Shanghai. They were interviewed in the third month and again in the fifteenth month and in the fifth to sixth year afterwards individually at home. The total follow up rate reached 98%. Couple’s background characteristics as well as the information on their general health. reproductivc history and contraceptive use etc.. were collected dynamically. All of the single live births with term delivery were Included for data analysis in this paper. Adjusted odd ratios and population attributable risk (PAR%) were computed. Results: The prevalence of TLBW in Shanghai single term live births was 2. 0% (134,/6.573), represents 54. 7% (134/245) of the total low birth weights in our sam pie. Significant social and behaviour risk factors relating with TI-BW were wife’s dissat- isfaction with marriage; low education level of husband; co-residence with parents during pregnancy; heavy housework done by the wife while being pregnant. Significant biomedical risky factors were menarche age greater than 16 years old; maternal age at delivery greater than 29 years old; maternal body mass index less than 19. 8; wife suf- fered from serious disease prior to conceiving; having pregnancy complication; gestational weight gain less than 20 % of pre-pregnancy weight; having abortion, stillbirth and fetal death history. Conclusion: TL.BW constituted over half of all low birth weights in Shanghai. Special attention should be paid to the determinants mentioned above in TLBW intervention program. Improving couples’ economic and living condition and husband ’s education at tainment, and caloric supplementation with women while being pregnant would all be particularly effective in reducing the occurrence of TLBW in Shnaghai.
文摘Population attributable fraction(PAF)refers to the proportion of all cases with a particular outcome in a population that could be prevented by eliminating a specific exposure.The authors of a recent paper evaluated the prevalence and estimated the PAFs for risk factors of TB among elderly people in China[Inf Dis Poverty.2019;8:7].Confounding is inevitable in observational studies and Levin’s formula is of limited use in practice for unbiasedly estimating PAF.In a complex survey design,an unbiased estimation of the PAF can be calculated using a sample-weighted version of the Miettinen formula or a sample weighed parametric g-formula.With respect to causal interpretation of PAF in public health setting,computation of PAF is logical and practical when the exposure is amenable to intervention.
基金supported in part by the Joint Laboratory for Internet of Vehicles,Ministry of Education-China Mobile Communications Corporation under Grant ICV-KF2018-01in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China underGrant 51975194 and 51905161.
文摘Purpose–The purpose of this paper is to investigate the influence of driver demographic characteristics on the driving safety involving cell phone usages.Design/methodology/approach–A total of 1,432 crashes and 19,714 baselines were collected for the Strategic Highway Research Program 2 naturalistic driving research.The authors used a case-control approach to estimate the prevalence and the population attributable risk percentage.The mixed logistic regression model is used to evaluate the correlation between different driver demographic characteristics(age,driving experience or their combination)and the crash risk regarding cell phone engagements,as well as the correlation among the likelihood of the cell phone engagement during the driving,multiple driver demographic characteristics(gender,age and driving experience)and environment conditions.Findings–Senior drivers face an extremely high crash risk when distracted by cell phone during driving,but they are not involved in crashes at a large scale.On the contrary,cell phone usages account for a far larger percentage of total crashes for young drivers.Similarly,experienced drivers and experienced-middle-aged drivers seem less likely to be impacted by the cell phone while driving,and cell phone engagements are attributed to a lower percentage of total crashes for them.Furthermore,experienced,senior or male drivers are less likely to engage in cell phone-related secondary tasks while driving.Originality/value–The results provide support to guide countermeasures and vehicle design.
