Due to fast-growing urbanization,the traffic management system becomes a crucial problem owing to the rapid growth in the number of vehicles The research proposes an Intelligent public transportation system where info...Due to fast-growing urbanization,the traffic management system becomes a crucial problem owing to the rapid growth in the number of vehicles The research proposes an Intelligent public transportation system where informa-tion regarding all the buses connecting in a city will be gathered,processed and accurate bus arrival time prediction will be presented to the user.Various linear and time-varying parameters such as distance,waiting time at stops,red signal duration at a traffic signal,traffic density,turning density,rush hours,weather conditions,number of passengers on the bus,type of day,road type,average vehi-cle speed limit,current vehicle speed affecting traffic are used for the analysis.The proposed model exploits the feasibility and applicability of ELM in the travel time forecasting area.Multiple ELMs(MELM)for explicitly training dynamic,road and trajectory information are used in the proposed approach.A large-scale dataset(historical data)obtained from Kerala State Road Transport Corporation is used for training.Simulations are carried out by using MATLAB R2021a.The experiments revealed that the efficiency of MELM is independent of the time of day and day of the week.It can manage huge volumes of data with less human intervention at greater learning speeds.It is found MELM yields prediction with accuracy in the range of 96.7%to 99.08%.The MAE value is between 0.28 to 1.74 minutes with the proposed approach.The study revealed that there could be regularity in bus usage and daily bus rides are predictable with a better degree of accuracy.The research has proved that MELM is superior for arrival time pre-dictions in terms of accuracy and error,compared with other approaches.展开更多
This paper proposes a Delivery Service Management(DSM)system for Small and Medium Enterprises(SMEs)that own a delivery fleet of pickup trucks to manage Business-to-Business(B2B)delivery services.The proposed DSM syste...This paper proposes a Delivery Service Management(DSM)system for Small and Medium Enterprises(SMEs)that own a delivery fleet of pickup trucks to manage Business-to-Business(B2B)delivery services.The proposed DSM system integrates four systems:Delivery Location Positioning(DLP),Delivery Route Planning(DRP),Arrival Time Prediction(ATP),and Communication and Data Sharing(CDS)systems.These systems are used to pinpoint the delivery locations of customers,plan the delivery route of each truck,predict arrival time(with an interval)at each delivery location,and communicate and share information among stakeholders,respectively.The DSM system deploys Google applications,a GPS tracking system,Google Map APIs,ATP algorithms(embedded in Excel Macros),Line,and Telegram as supporting tools.To improve the accuracy of the ATP system,three tech-niques are applied considering driver behaviors.The proposed DSM system has been implemented in a Thai SME.From the process perspective,the DSM system is a systematic procedure for end-to-end delivery services.It allows the interactions between planner-driver decisions and supporting tools.The supporting tools are simple,can be easily used with little training,and require low capital expenditure.The statistical analysis shows that the ATP algorithm with the three techniques provides high accuracy.Thus,the proposed DSM system is beneficial for practitioners to manage delivery services,especially for SMEs in emerging countries.展开更多
A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that ...A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 31% of all events, ≤30% for 75%, and ≤50% for 84%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other mod- els. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.展开更多
To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was...To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.展开更多
文摘Due to fast-growing urbanization,the traffic management system becomes a crucial problem owing to the rapid growth in the number of vehicles The research proposes an Intelligent public transportation system where informa-tion regarding all the buses connecting in a city will be gathered,processed and accurate bus arrival time prediction will be presented to the user.Various linear and time-varying parameters such as distance,waiting time at stops,red signal duration at a traffic signal,traffic density,turning density,rush hours,weather conditions,number of passengers on the bus,type of day,road type,average vehi-cle speed limit,current vehicle speed affecting traffic are used for the analysis.The proposed model exploits the feasibility and applicability of ELM in the travel time forecasting area.Multiple ELMs(MELM)for explicitly training dynamic,road and trajectory information are used in the proposed approach.A large-scale dataset(historical data)obtained from Kerala State Road Transport Corporation is used for training.Simulations are carried out by using MATLAB R2021a.The experiments revealed that the efficiency of MELM is independent of the time of day and day of the week.It can manage huge volumes of data with less human intervention at greater learning speeds.It is found MELM yields prediction with accuracy in the range of 96.7%to 99.08%.The MAE value is between 0.28 to 1.74 minutes with the proposed approach.The study revealed that there could be regularity in bus usage and daily bus rides are predictable with a better degree of accuracy.The research has proved that MELM is superior for arrival time pre-dictions in terms of accuracy and error,compared with other approaches.
文摘This paper proposes a Delivery Service Management(DSM)system for Small and Medium Enterprises(SMEs)that own a delivery fleet of pickup trucks to manage Business-to-Business(B2B)delivery services.The proposed DSM system integrates four systems:Delivery Location Positioning(DLP),Delivery Route Planning(DRP),Arrival Time Prediction(ATP),and Communication and Data Sharing(CDS)systems.These systems are used to pinpoint the delivery locations of customers,plan the delivery route of each truck,predict arrival time(with an interval)at each delivery location,and communicate and share information among stakeholders,respectively.The DSM system deploys Google applications,a GPS tracking system,Google Map APIs,ATP algorithms(embedded in Excel Macros),Line,and Telegram as supporting tools.To improve the accuracy of the ATP system,three tech-niques are applied considering driver behaviors.The proposed DSM system has been implemented in a Thai SME.From the process perspective,the DSM system is a systematic procedure for end-to-end delivery services.It allows the interactions between planner-driver decisions and supporting tools.The supporting tools are simple,can be easily used with little training,and require low capital expenditure.The statistical analysis shows that the ATP algorithm with the three techniques provides high accuracy.Thus,the proposed DSM system is beneficial for practitioners to manage delivery services,especially for SMEs in emerging countries.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 40890162 40874078+2 种基金 40536029 and 40523006)Na-tional Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2006CB806304)Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and Special Fund for Public Welfare Industry (Meteorology) (Contract GYHY200806024)
文摘A 1D-HD shock propagation model is established to predict the arrival time of interplanetary shocks at 1 AU. Applying this model to 68 solar events during the period of February 1997 to October 2000, it is found that our model could be practically equivalent to the STOA, ISPM and HAFv.2 models in forecasting the shock arrival time. The absolute error in the transit time from our model is not larger than those of the other three models for the same sample events. Also, the prediction test shows that the relative error of our model is ≤10% for 31% of all events, ≤30% for 75%, and ≤50% for 84%, which is comparable to the relative errors of the other mod- els. These results might demonstrate a potential capability of our model in terms of real-time forecasting.
基金Project(2011AA010101) supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China
文摘To improve the accuracy of real-time public transport information release system, a collaborative prediction model was proposed based on cyber-physical systems architecture. In the model, the total bus travel time was divided into three parts: running time, dwell time and intersection delay time, and the data were divided into three categories of historical data, static data and real-time data. The bus arrival time was obtained by fusion computing the real-time data in perception layer together with historical data and static data in collaborative layer. The validity of the collaborative model was verified by the data of a typical urban bus line in Shanghai, and 1538 sets of data were collected and analyzed from three different perspectives. By comparing the experimental results with the actual results, it is shown that the experimental results are with higher prediction accuracy, and the collaborative prediction model adopted is able to meet the demand for bus arrival prediction.
