Non-methane short-lived climate forcer(SLCF)or near-term climate forcer(NTCF)emissions,as a significant driver of climate change,can be reduced to improve air quality.These reductions may contribute to additional warm...Non-methane short-lived climate forcer(SLCF)or near-term climate forcer(NTCF)emissions,as a significant driver of climate change,can be reduced to improve air quality.These reductions may contribute to additional warming of the climate system in the short term,thereby strongly affecting the likelihood of climate extremes.However,there has been no quantitative assessment of the impact of non-methane SLCF mitigation on compound flood-heatwave extremes(CFHEs).This study quantitatively investigates the changes in future(2031-2050 versus 1995-2014)CFHEs and the resulting population exposure in the Northern Hemisphere(NH)due to non-methane SLCF reductions.We used multi-model ensemble simulations under two future scenarios from the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project(AerChemMIP)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The two future scenarios share the same greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions but have weak(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)3-7.0)versus strong(SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF)levels of air quality control measures.The results show that future non-methane SLCF reductions during 2031-2050 results in about a 7.3%±2.3%increase in grid exposure to CFHEs in the NH relative to the period 1995-2014.The frequency,intensity,and duration of CFHEs increase by varying degrees.During the period 2031-2050,the frequency of CFHEs across the NH increases by 2.9±0.9 events per decade due to non-methane SLCF reductions.The increases in CFHE frequency are more pronounced in East Asia,South Asia,Siberia,and northern and eastern North America.In East and South Asia,the in-tensities of both heatwaves and floods corresponding to CFHEs increase markedly,where heatwave magnitude(HWM)increases by 0.3±0.2 K in East Asia and weighted average precipitation(WAP)increases by 18.3%±15.3%and 12.0%±4.5%in East Asia and South Asia,respectively.In other regions,rising temperatures dominate the increase in CFHEs.With regard to the duration of CFHEs,future reductions in non-methane SLCFs increases the duration of CFHEs in the N展开更多
Objective Evidence that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution increases mortality among older adults,particularly those residing in low-level air pollution locations,remains scarce.This study investigated the po...Objective Evidence that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution increases mortality among older adults,particularly those residing in low-level air pollution locations,remains scarce.This study investigated the potential links between long-term low-level air pollution exposure and mortality among Chinese older adults.Methods A population-based study with 317,464 individuals aged≥65 years was conducted in Shenzhen,China during 2018 and 2020.Logistic regression models were used to analyze the associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and all-cause mortality,as the primary outcome,as well as non-accidental,cancer and cardiovascular mortality.Results Significant associations of PM1,PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),CO,and O3 exposures with a higher risk of all-cause mortality were found.Adjusted odds ratio(OR)for each 1μg/m^(3) increment was 1.49[95%confidence interval(CI):1.46,1.53]for PM1,1.30(1.27,1.32)for PM_(2.5),1.05(1.04,1.06)for PM_(10),5.84(5.39,6.32)for SO_(2),1.04(1.04,1.05)for CO,and 1.02(1.00,1.03)for O3,respectively.Long-term PM1,PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),and CO exposures also elevated the risks of non-accidental,cancer and cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion Long-term low-level air pollution exposure was associated with an increased mortality risk among Chinese older adults.展开更多
基金This research was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(42275042,42341202 and 42090031)the Science and Technology Development Fund of CAMS(2022KJ004 and 2024KJ004).
文摘Non-methane short-lived climate forcer(SLCF)or near-term climate forcer(NTCF)emissions,as a significant driver of climate change,can be reduced to improve air quality.These reductions may contribute to additional warming of the climate system in the short term,thereby strongly affecting the likelihood of climate extremes.However,there has been no quantitative assessment of the impact of non-methane SLCF mitigation on compound flood-heatwave extremes(CFHEs).This study quantitatively investigates the changes in future(2031-2050 versus 1995-2014)CFHEs and the resulting population exposure in the Northern Hemisphere(NH)due to non-methane SLCF reductions.We used multi-model ensemble simulations under two future scenarios from the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project(AerChemMIP)in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6).The two future scenarios share the same greenhouse gas(GHG)emissions but have weak(Shared Socioeconomic Pathway(SSP)3-7.0)versus strong(SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF)levels of air quality control measures.The results show that future non-methane SLCF reductions during 2031-2050 results in about a 7.3%±2.3%increase in grid exposure to CFHEs in the NH relative to the period 1995-2014.The frequency,intensity,and duration of CFHEs increase by varying degrees.During the period 2031-2050,the frequency of CFHEs across the NH increases by 2.9±0.9 events per decade due to non-methane SLCF reductions.The increases in CFHE frequency are more pronounced in East Asia,South Asia,Siberia,and northern and eastern North America.In East and South Asia,the in-tensities of both heatwaves and floods corresponding to CFHEs increase markedly,where heatwave magnitude(HWM)increases by 0.3±0.2 K in East Asia and weighted average precipitation(WAP)increases by 18.3%±15.3%and 12.0%±4.5%in East Asia and South Asia,respectively.In other regions,rising temperatures dominate the increase in CFHEs.With regard to the duration of CFHEs,future reductions in non-methane SLCFs increases the duration of CFHEs in the N
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(grant no.82273631)the Science and Technology Planning Project of Shenzhen City,Guangdong Province,China(grant no.JCYJ20220531094410024)the Shenzhen Medical Key Discipline Construction Fund,Guangdong Province,China(grant no.SZXK065).
文摘Objective Evidence that long-term exposure to ambient air pollution increases mortality among older adults,particularly those residing in low-level air pollution locations,remains scarce.This study investigated the potential links between long-term low-level air pollution exposure and mortality among Chinese older adults.Methods A population-based study with 317,464 individuals aged≥65 years was conducted in Shenzhen,China during 2018 and 2020.Logistic regression models were used to analyze the associations between long-term exposure to air pollution and all-cause mortality,as the primary outcome,as well as non-accidental,cancer and cardiovascular mortality.Results Significant associations of PM1,PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),CO,and O3 exposures with a higher risk of all-cause mortality were found.Adjusted odds ratio(OR)for each 1μg/m^(3) increment was 1.49[95%confidence interval(CI):1.46,1.53]for PM1,1.30(1.27,1.32)for PM_(2.5),1.05(1.04,1.06)for PM_(10),5.84(5.39,6.32)for SO_(2),1.04(1.04,1.05)for CO,and 1.02(1.00,1.03)for O3,respectively.Long-term PM1,PM_(2.5),PM_(10),SO_(2),and CO exposures also elevated the risks of non-accidental,cancer and cardiovascular mortality.Conclusion Long-term low-level air pollution exposure was associated with an increased mortality risk among Chinese older adults.
