Based on China抯 available daily observation data from 681 national meteorological stations from 1954 to 2002, a time series of typical severe dust storms in northern China is constructed in terms of the weather proce...Based on China抯 available daily observation data from 681 national meteorological stations from 1954 to 2002, a time series of typical severe dust storms in northern China is constructed in terms of the weather process, and the temporal and spatial distribution, and their evolution ten-dency is analyzed. The results indicate that there were 223 relatively typical severe dust storms in northern China from 1954 to 2002, among which the event on April 10—12, 1979 had the largest affected area. Closely associated with the geographical distribution of deserts, sandy lands and the tracks of strong cold air outbreaks, severe dust storms mainly occurred in the Tarim Basin, the eastern part of Northwest China and the northern part of North China. The season with the most frequent severe dust storms was spring, in which the frequency accounts for 82.5% in the whole year, while the least occurrence was in summer and autumn. Dur-ing the past 49 years, the highest frequency of severe dust storms occurred in the 1950s and the lowest was in the 1990s with a general descending tendency, but during 2000—2002 the occurrence was relatively increasing. On the average, the duration of severe dust storms was shortest in the 1990s, about 0.5—1 h shorter than that in the other 4 decades.展开更多
In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion isan irreversible process, a memory function which can recall observational data in the past is suggested. In terms of defining an inner product in Hilbert space, a new ...In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion isan irreversible process, a memory function which can recall observational data in the past is suggested. In terms of defining an inner product in Hilbert space, a new concept of self-memorization in the atmospheric motion is proposed, thus the traditional atmospheric motion equation is generalized to a self-memorization equation in inclusion of multi-time observations. Self-memorization equations of a barotropic nondivergent model and a barotropic primitive equation model are exemplified.It is proved that some existing difference schemes can be derived from the self-memorization equation by giving particular values to memory function. However, it demonstrates that multi-time numerical prediction models can be unified into a framework of self-memorization equation. If a stochastic method in solving the memory function is taken, the selfmemorization equation will be transformed to a sort of dynamic-stochastic prediction model.展开更多
Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological communit...Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system-GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3-10 km for regional and 25-50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.展开更多
2014年9月16日夜间,第15号台风"海鸥"外围螺旋雨带中产生龙卷,袭击了广东省佛山市三水区白坭镇。通过现场灾情勘察、群众走访、新一代雷达观测等资料的综合分析,确定这次龙卷强度为EF1级。分析其发生发展的环境背景、雷达回...2014年9月16日夜间,第15号台风"海鸥"外围螺旋雨带中产生龙卷,袭击了广东省佛山市三水区白坭镇。通过现场灾情勘察、群众走访、新一代雷达观测等资料的综合分析,确定这次龙卷强度为EF1级。分析其发生发展的环境背景、雷达回波特征,并与相似台风路径下无龙卷产生的1409号超强台风"威马逊"环境条件对比,结果表明:龙卷发生在登陆台风"海鸥"移动方向的右后侧,对应上空200 h Pa为辐散区,500 h Pa为副热带高压和"海鸥"之间的强东南气流汇合处,从925 h Pa到500 h Pa强东南急流轴走向一致、上下叠加在珠江口附近,地面存在触发对流的东路弱冷空气和中尺度辐合线。环境条件呈弱的条件不稳定,对流有效位能(CAPE)小、抬升凝结高度(LCL)低、垂直风切变和风暴相对螺旋度(SRH)大;产生龙卷的对流风暴属于低质心的微型超级单体风暴,速度图上低层存在强中气旋,中气旋中心伴有TVS,中气旋和TVS尺度比较小、垂直伸展高度比较低,强中气旋、TVS分别早于龙卷14 min、8 min出现。龙卷出现在微型超级单体风暴右后侧钩状回波顶端、TVS附近。分析还表明,相似台风路径下,台风"海鸥"(有龙卷出现)和超强台风"威马逊"(无龙卷出现)的环境条件明显差异主要体现在0~1 km的低层垂直风切变和SRH上,后者的0~1 km垂直风切变和SRH均明显偏小,不利于微型超级单体风暴的出现。展开更多
基金supported by the National Key Basic Research Project of China(Grant No.G2000048703)the Key Project of Short-Term Climate Prediction(Grant No.96-908-06-4-1-2)+1 种基金the Key Research Project of NMC(Grant No.ZK2002B-20)the Key Research Project of NSMC(Grant No.NSMC-Y0101).
文摘Based on China抯 available daily observation data from 681 national meteorological stations from 1954 to 2002, a time series of typical severe dust storms in northern China is constructed in terms of the weather process, and the temporal and spatial distribution, and their evolution ten-dency is analyzed. The results indicate that there were 223 relatively typical severe dust storms in northern China from 1954 to 2002, among which the event on April 10—12, 1979 had the largest affected area. Closely associated with the geographical distribution of deserts, sandy lands and the tracks of strong cold air outbreaks, severe dust storms mainly occurred in the Tarim Basin, the eastern part of Northwest China and the northern part of North China. The season with the most frequent severe dust storms was spring, in which the frequency accounts for 82.5% in the whole year, while the least occurrence was in summer and autumn. Dur-ing the past 49 years, the highest frequency of severe dust storms occurred in the 1950s and the lowest was in the 1990s with a general descending tendency, but during 2000—2002 the occurrence was relatively increasing. On the average, the duration of severe dust storms was shortest in the 1990s, about 0.5—1 h shorter than that in the other 4 decades.
文摘In view of the fact that the atmospheric motion isan irreversible process, a memory function which can recall observational data in the past is suggested. In terms of defining an inner product in Hilbert space, a new concept of self-memorization in the atmospheric motion is proposed, thus the traditional atmospheric motion equation is generalized to a self-memorization equation in inclusion of multi-time observations. Self-memorization equations of a barotropic nondivergent model and a barotropic primitive equation model are exemplified.It is proved that some existing difference schemes can be derived from the self-memorization equation by giving particular values to memory function. However, it demonstrates that multi-time numerical prediction models can be unified into a framework of self-memorization equation. If a stochastic method in solving the memory function is taken, the selfmemorization equation will be transformed to a sort of dynamic-stochastic prediction model.
基金Supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2017YFC1501900)Middle-and Long-term Development Strategic Research Project of the Chinese Academy of Engineering(2019-ZCQ-06)。
文摘Numerical weather prediction(NWP) is a core technology in weather forecast and disaster mitigation. China’s NWP research and operational applications have been attached great importance by the meteorological community.Fundamental achievements have been made in the theories, methods, and NWP model development in China, which are of certain international impacts. In this paper, the scientific and technological progress of NWP in China since1949 is summarized. The current status and recent progress of the domestically developed NWP system-GRAPES(Global/Regional Assimilation and Pr Ediction System) are presented. Through independent research and development in the past 10 years, the operational GRAPES system has been established, which includes both regional and global deterministic and ensemble prediction models, with resolutions of 3-10 km for regional and 25-50 km for global forecasts. Major improvements include establishment of a new non-hydrostatic dynamic core, setup of four-dimensional variational data assimilation, and development of associated satellite application. As members of the GRAPES system, prediction models for atmospheric chemistry and air pollution, tropical cyclones, and ocean waves have also been developed and put into operational use. The GRAPES system has been an important milestone in NWP science and technology in China.
文摘2014年9月16日夜间,第15号台风"海鸥"外围螺旋雨带中产生龙卷,袭击了广东省佛山市三水区白坭镇。通过现场灾情勘察、群众走访、新一代雷达观测等资料的综合分析,确定这次龙卷强度为EF1级。分析其发生发展的环境背景、雷达回波特征,并与相似台风路径下无龙卷产生的1409号超强台风"威马逊"环境条件对比,结果表明:龙卷发生在登陆台风"海鸥"移动方向的右后侧,对应上空200 h Pa为辐散区,500 h Pa为副热带高压和"海鸥"之间的强东南气流汇合处,从925 h Pa到500 h Pa强东南急流轴走向一致、上下叠加在珠江口附近,地面存在触发对流的东路弱冷空气和中尺度辐合线。环境条件呈弱的条件不稳定,对流有效位能(CAPE)小、抬升凝结高度(LCL)低、垂直风切变和风暴相对螺旋度(SRH)大;产生龙卷的对流风暴属于低质心的微型超级单体风暴,速度图上低层存在强中气旋,中气旋中心伴有TVS,中气旋和TVS尺度比较小、垂直伸展高度比较低,强中气旋、TVS分别早于龙卷14 min、8 min出现。龙卷出现在微型超级单体风暴右后侧钩状回波顶端、TVS附近。分析还表明,相似台风路径下,台风"海鸥"(有龙卷出现)和超强台风"威马逊"(无龙卷出现)的环境条件明显差异主要体现在0~1 km的低层垂直风切变和SRH上,后者的0~1 km垂直风切变和SRH均明显偏小,不利于微型超级单体风暴的出现。
