We forecast realized volatilities by developing a time-varying heterogeneous autoregressive(HAR)latent factor model with dynamic model average(DMA)and dynamic model selection(DMS)approaches.The number of latent factor...We forecast realized volatilities by developing a time-varying heterogeneous autoregressive(HAR)latent factor model with dynamic model average(DMA)and dynamic model selection(DMS)approaches.The number of latent factors is determined using Chan and Grant's(2016)deviation information criteria.The predictors in our model include lagged daily,weekly,and monthly volatility variables,the corresponding volatility factors,and a speculation variable.In addition,the time-varying properties of the best-performing DMA(DMS)-HAR-2FX models,including size,inclusion probabilities,and coefficients,are examined.We find that the proposed DMA(DMS)-HAR-2FX model outperforms the competing models for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Furthermore,the speculation variable displays strong predictability for forecasting the realized volatility of financial futures in China.展开更多
In this study, we developed multivariate model for the study of the impact of treasury single account (TSA) on the performance of banks in Nigeria. From the study, we discovered that there was no significant differenc...In this study, we developed multivariate model for the study of the impact of treasury single account (TSA) on the performance of banks in Nigeria. From the study, we discovered that there was no significant difference between the period before and after the introduction of the TSA policy on the performance of banks in Nigeria. In Diamond Bank Nigeria Plc, we observed that there were negative relationships between liquidity ratio and capital adequacy with correlation coefficient of -0.093;liquidity ratio and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.312;capital adequacy and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.176. On the other hand, from the analysis on first bank, we observed that there were both positive and fairly strong relationships between the liquidity ratio and capital adequacy with correlation coefficient of 0.626;negative relationship between liquidity ratio and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.880 and finally, negative relationship between capital adequacy and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.165.展开更多
基金supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China(72171088,71803049,72003205)the Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China of Humanities and Social Sciences Youth Fundation(20YJC790142)the General Project of Social Science Planning in Guangdong Province,China(GD22CYJ12).
文摘We forecast realized volatilities by developing a time-varying heterogeneous autoregressive(HAR)latent factor model with dynamic model average(DMA)and dynamic model selection(DMS)approaches.The number of latent factors is determined using Chan and Grant's(2016)deviation information criteria.The predictors in our model include lagged daily,weekly,and monthly volatility variables,the corresponding volatility factors,and a speculation variable.In addition,the time-varying properties of the best-performing DMA(DMS)-HAR-2FX models,including size,inclusion probabilities,and coefficients,are examined.We find that the proposed DMA(DMS)-HAR-2FX model outperforms the competing models for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts.Furthermore,the speculation variable displays strong predictability for forecasting the realized volatility of financial futures in China.
文摘In this study, we developed multivariate model for the study of the impact of treasury single account (TSA) on the performance of banks in Nigeria. From the study, we discovered that there was no significant difference between the period before and after the introduction of the TSA policy on the performance of banks in Nigeria. In Diamond Bank Nigeria Plc, we observed that there were negative relationships between liquidity ratio and capital adequacy with correlation coefficient of -0.093;liquidity ratio and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.312;capital adequacy and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.176. On the other hand, from the analysis on first bank, we observed that there were both positive and fairly strong relationships between the liquidity ratio and capital adequacy with correlation coefficient of 0.626;negative relationship between liquidity ratio and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.880 and finally, negative relationship between capital adequacy and credit to customers with correlation coefficient of -0.165.
