A method is presented to extrapolate a time series of wave data to extreme wave heights. The 15-year time series of deepwater wave data collected for 34 min every hour from 1988 to 2002 in the South Pacific Ocean, Aus...A method is presented to extrapolate a time series of wave data to extreme wave heights. The 15-year time series of deepwater wave data collected for 34 min every hour from 1988 to 2002 in the South Pacific Ocean, Australia, is analyzed to generate a set of storm peak wave heights by use of the Peaks-Over-Threshold method. The probability distribution is calculated by grouping the observod storm peak wave heights into a number of wave height classes and assigning a probability to each wave height class. The observed probability distribution is then fitted to eight different probability distribution functions and found to be fitted best by the Weibull distribution （a = 1.17）, nearly best by the FT-Ⅰ, quite well by the exponential, and poorly by the lognormal function based on the criterion of the sum of squares of the errors, SSE （H）. The effect of the threshold wave height on the estimated extreme wave height is also studied and is found insignificant in this study. The 95 % prediction intervals of the best-fit FT-Ⅰ , exponential and Weibull functions are also derived.展开更多
In this paper, we establish a generalized extreme Value-Pareto distribution model and derive an analytical expression of Weibull–Pareto distribution model. Based on a data sample of 26-year wave height, we adopt the ...In this paper, we establish a generalized extreme Value-Pareto distribution model and derive an analytical expression of Weibull–Pareto distribution model. Based on a data sample of 26-year wave height, we adopt the new model to estimate the design wave height for 500, 700 and 1000-year return periods. Results show that the design wave height from Weibull–Pareto distribution is between that of the Weibull distribution and that of the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution.For the 500-year return period design wave height, the results from the new model is 1.601% lower than those from the Weibull distribution and 1.319% higher than those from the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution. The Weibull–Pareto distribution innovatively considers the fractal features, extreme-value statistics and the truncated data in the derivation process. Therefore, it is a more holistic and practical model for estimating the design parameters in marine and coastal environments.展开更多
A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness ...A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness not only could be a parameter of the distribution function of wave height but also could reflect the degree of wave height distribution deviation from the Rayleigh distribution. The new wave height distribution overcomes the problem of Rayleigh distribution that the prediction of big wave is overestimated and the general wave is underestimated. The prediction of small probability wave height value of new distribution is also smaller than that of Rayleigh distribution. Wave height data taken from East China Normal University are used to verify the new distribution. The results in- dicate that the new distribution fits the measurements much better than the Rayleigh distribution.展开更多
The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the ava...The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.展开更多
In this paper experimental wind wave data are analyzed. It is found that differences in spectral width will give rise to differences in wave height distribution. The effect of spectral width on the distribution is mai...In this paper experimental wind wave data are analyzed. It is found that differences in spectral width will give rise to differences in wave height distribution. The effect of spectral width on the distribution is mainly in the high wave range. The effect of wave steepness is in low, medium and high wave ranges. In the high wave range the effect of spectral width is comparable to that of wave steepness. Differences in spectral width in the observations may give rise to discrepancies in the result when wave steepness is the only parameter in the distribution.展开更多
This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service l...This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.展开更多
We have made observations of X-band radar sea clutter from the sea surface and sea-surface state in the Uraga Suido Traffic Route, which is used by ships entering and leaving Tokyo Bay, and the nearby Daini Kaiho Sea ...We have made observations of X-band radar sea clutter from the sea surface and sea-surface state in the Uraga Suido Traffic Route, which is used by ships entering and leaving Tokyo Bay, and the nearby Daini Kaiho Sea Fortress. We estimated the distributions of reflected amplitudes due to sea clutter using models that assume Weibull, Log-Weibull, Log-normal, and K-distributions. We then compared the results of estimating these distributions with sea-surface state data to investigate the effects of changes in the sea-surface state on the statistical characteristics of sea clutter. As a result, we showed that observed sub-ranges not containing a target conformed better to the Weibull distribution regardless of Significant Wave Height (SWH). Further, sub-ranges conforming to the Log-Weibull or Log-normal distribution in areas contained a target when the SWH was large, and as SWH decreases, sub-ranges conforming to a Log-normal. We also showed that for observed sub-ranges not containing a target, the shape parameter, c, of both Weibull and Log-Weibull distribution correlated with SWH. The correlation between wave period and shape parameters of Weibull and Log-Weibull distribution showed a weak correlation.展开更多
With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite im...With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold（POT） method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated.展开更多
This paper considers the nonlinear transformation of irregular waves propagating over a mild slope （1：40）. Two cases of irregular waves, which are mechanically generated based on JONSWAP spectra, are used for this ...This paper considers the nonlinear transformation of irregular waves propagating over a mild slope （1：40）. Two cases of irregular waves, which are mechanically generated based on JONSWAP spectra, are used for this purpose. The results indicate that the wave heights obey the Rayleigh distribution at the offshore location; however, in the shoaling region, the heights of the largest waves are underestimated by the theoretical distributions. In the surf zone, the wave heights can be approximated by the composite Weibull distribution. In addition, the nonlinear phase coupling within the irregular waves is investigated by the wavelet-based bicoherence. The bicoherence spectra reflect that the number of frequency modes participating in the phase coupling increases with the decreasing water depth, as does the degree of phase coupling. After the incipient breaking, even though the degree of phase coupling decreases, a great number of higher harmonic wave modes are also involved in nonlinear interactions. Moreover, the summed bicoherence indicates that the frequency mode related to the strongest local nonlinear interactions shifts to higher harmonics with the decreasing water depth.展开更多
文摘A method is presented to extrapolate a time series of wave data to extreme wave heights. The 15-year time series of deepwater wave data collected for 34 min every hour from 1988 to 2002 in the South Pacific Ocean, Australia, is analyzed to generate a set of storm peak wave heights by use of the Peaks-Over-Threshold method. The probability distribution is calculated by grouping the observod storm peak wave heights into a number of wave height classes and assigning a probability to each wave height class. The observed probability distribution is then fitted to eight different probability distribution functions and found to be fitted best by the Weibull distribution （a = 1.17）, nearly best by the FT-Ⅰ, quite well by the exponential, and poorly by the lognormal function based on the criterion of the sum of squares of the errors, SSE （H）. The effect of the threshold wave height on the estimated extreme wave height is also studied and is found insignificant in this study. The 95 % prediction intervals of the best-fit FT-Ⅰ , exponential and Weibull functions are also derived.
基金supported by the NSFC-Shandong Joint Fund(Grant No.U1706226)Graduate Education Reform and Research Fund(Grant No.HDJG18007)
文摘In this paper, we establish a generalized extreme Value-Pareto distribution model and derive an analytical expression of Weibull–Pareto distribution model. Based on a data sample of 26-year wave height, we adopt the new model to estimate the design wave height for 500, 700 and 1000-year return periods. Results show that the design wave height from Weibull–Pareto distribution is between that of the Weibull distribution and that of the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution.For the 500-year return period design wave height, the results from the new model is 1.601% lower than those from the Weibull distribution and 1.319% higher than those from the Pearson-Ⅲ distribution. The Weibull–Pareto distribution innovatively considers the fractal features, extreme-value statistics and the truncated data in the derivation process. Therefore, it is a more holistic and practical model for estimating the design parameters in marine and coastal environments.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.40476015 and 40176010)the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program of China(863 Program)(Grant No.2001 AA633070)respectively.
文摘A statistical model of random wave is developed using Stokes wave theory of water wave dynamics. A new nonlinear probability distribution function of wave height is presented. The results indicate that wave steepness not only could be a parameter of the distribution function of wave height but also could reflect the degree of wave height distribution deviation from the Rayleigh distribution. The new wave height distribution overcomes the problem of Rayleigh distribution that the prediction of big wave is overestimated and the general wave is underestimated. The prediction of small probability wave height value of new distribution is also smaller than that of Rayleigh distribution. Wave height data taken from East China Normal University are used to verify the new distribution. The results in- dicate that the new distribution fits the measurements much better than the Rayleigh distribution.
基金The Singapore Ministry of Education AcRF Project under contract NTU ref:RF20/10
文摘The analysis and design of offshore structures necessitates the consideration of wave loads. Realistic modeling of wave loads is particularly important to ensure reliable performance of these structures. Among the available methods for the modeling of the extreme significant wave height on a statistical basis, the peak over threshold method has attracted most attention. This method employs Poisson process to character- ize time-varying properties in the parameters of an extreme value distribution. In this paper, the peak over threshold method is reviewed and extended to account for subjectivity in the modeling. The freedom in selecting the threshold and the time span to separate extremes from the original time series data is incorpo- rated as imprecision in the model. This leads to an extension from random variables to random sets in the probabilistic model for the extreme significant wave height. The extended model is also applied to different periods of the sampled data to evaluate the significance of the climatic conditions on the uncertainties of the parameters.
文摘In this paper experimental wind wave data are analyzed. It is found that differences in spectral width will give rise to differences in wave height distribution. The effect of spectral width on the distribution is mainly in the high wave range. The effect of wave steepness is in low, medium and high wave ranges. In the high wave range the effect of spectral width is comparable to that of wave steepness. Differences in spectral width in the observations may give rise to discrepancies in the result when wave steepness is the only parameter in the distribution.
文摘This paper reveals that the long-period statistic distribution of the characteristic heights of deep-water waves assumes the lognormal distribution. Thereafter, the largest wave-height which may occur in the service life of coastal structures is derived in this paper.
文摘We have made observations of X-band radar sea clutter from the sea surface and sea-surface state in the Uraga Suido Traffic Route, which is used by ships entering and leaving Tokyo Bay, and the nearby Daini Kaiho Sea Fortress. We estimated the distributions of reflected amplitudes due to sea clutter using models that assume Weibull, Log-Weibull, Log-normal, and K-distributions. We then compared the results of estimating these distributions with sea-surface state data to investigate the effects of changes in the sea-surface state on the statistical characteristics of sea clutter. As a result, we showed that observed sub-ranges not containing a target conformed better to the Weibull distribution regardless of Significant Wave Height (SWH). Further, sub-ranges conforming to the Log-Weibull or Log-normal distribution in areas contained a target when the SWH was large, and as SWH decreases, sub-ranges conforming to a Log-normal. We also showed that for observed sub-ranges not containing a target, the shape parameter, c, of both Weibull and Log-Weibull distribution correlated with SWH. The correlation between wave period and shape parameters of Weibull and Log-Weibull distribution showed a weak correlation.
基金financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant No.51478201)the Natural Science Fund of Hubei Province(Grant No.2012FKC14201)+1 种基金the Scientific Research Fund of Hubei Provincial Education Department(Grant No.D20134401)the Innovation Foundation in Youth Team of Hubei Polytechnic University(Grant No.Y0008)
文摘With noticing an increasing number of failure events for offshore structures in the present days, it is now realized that modeling the marine environment especially for exceptional environmental conditions is quite important. It is recognized that a possible improvement in the traditional modeling of environmental characteristics, which are the basis for the load models for structural analysis and design, may be needed. In this paper, the seasonal and directional varying properties in modeling the ocean parameter, the wave height, are studied. The peak over threshold（POT） method is selected to model the extreme wave height by utilizing a non-stationary discrete statistical extreme model. The varying parameters are taken into account with a changing pattern to reflect the seasonal and directional dependent behavior. Both the magnitude and the occurrence rate of the extreme values are investigated. Detailed discussion on the continuity of the established model is also given. The importance of the proposed model is demonstrated in reliability analysis for a jacket structure. The sensitivity to the changing marine environment in reliability analyses is investigated.
基金financially supported by the National Nature Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.51109032 and 11172058)A Foundation for the Author of National Excellent Doctoral Dissertation of PR China(FANEDD,Grant No.201347)
文摘This paper considers the nonlinear transformation of irregular waves propagating over a mild slope （1：40）. Two cases of irregular waves, which are mechanically generated based on JONSWAP spectra, are used for this purpose. The results indicate that the wave heights obey the Rayleigh distribution at the offshore location; however, in the shoaling region, the heights of the largest waves are underestimated by the theoretical distributions. In the surf zone, the wave heights can be approximated by the composite Weibull distribution. In addition, the nonlinear phase coupling within the irregular waves is investigated by the wavelet-based bicoherence. The bicoherence spectra reflect that the number of frequency modes participating in the phase coupling increases with the decreasing water depth, as does the degree of phase coupling. After the incipient breaking, even though the degree of phase coupling decreases, a great number of higher harmonic wave modes are also involved in nonlinear interactions. Moreover, the summed bicoherence indicates that the frequency mode related to the strongest local nonlinear interactions shifts to higher harmonics with the decreasing water depth.
