We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an ope...We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.展开更多
Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechani...Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechanism. There are also some shorter or longer timescales detected: the biennial cycle (2 - 2.7 years), Gleisberg cycle (80 - 100 years), and Hallstatt’s cycle (2100 - 2300 years). Recently, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the observed solar background magnetic field (SBMF), another period of 330 - 380 years, or Grand Solar Cycle (GSC), was derived from the summary curve of two eigenvectors of SBMF. In this paper, a spectral analysis of the averaged sunspot numbers, solar irradiance, and the summary curve of eigenvectors of SBMF was carried out using Morlet wavelet and Fourier transforms. We detect a 10.7-year cycle from the sunspots and modulus summary curve of eigenvectors as well a 22-year-cycle and the grand solar cycle of 342 - 350-years from the summary curve of eigenvectors. The Gleissberg centennial cycle is only detected on the full set of averaged sunspot numbers for 400 years or by adding a quadruple component to the summary curve of eigenvectors. Another period of 2200 - 2300 years is detected in the Holocene data of solar irradiance measured from the abundance of 14C isotope. This period was also confirmed with the period of about 2000 - 2100 years derived from a baseline of the solar background magnetic field, supposedly, caused by the solar inertial motion (SIM) induced by the gravitation of large planets. The implication of these findings for different deposition of solar radiation into the northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth caused by the combined effects of the solar activity and solar inertial motion on the terrestrial atmosphere is also discussed.展开更多
Three-and five-minute sunspot oscillations have different spatial distributions in the solar atmospheric layers.The spatial distributions are crucial for revealing the physical origin of sunspot oscillations and to in...Three-and five-minute sunspot oscillations have different spatial distributions in the solar atmospheric layers.The spatial distributions are crucial for revealing the physical origin of sunspot oscillations and to investigate their propagation.In this study,six sunspots observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly were used to obtain the spatial distributions of three-and five-minute oscillations.The fast Fourier transform method is applied to represent the power spectra of oscillation modes.We find that,from the temperature minimum to the lower corona,the powers of the fiveminute oscillation exhibit a circle-shape distribution around its umbra,and the shapes gradually expand with temperature increase.However,the circle-shape disappears and the powers of the oscillations appear to be very disordered in the higher corona.This indicates that the five-minute oscillation can be suppressed in the high-temperature region.For the three-minute oscillations,from the temperature minimum to the high corona,their powers mostly distribute within an umbra,and part of them are located at the coronal fan loop structures.Moreover,those relative higher powers are mostly concentrated in the position of coronal loop footpoints.展开更多
Characteristics of the sunspot cycle described by the international sunspot numbers are investigated based on the results obtainned by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994). A long period of about 90 years is found t...Characteristics of the sunspot cycle described by the international sunspot numbers are investigated based on the results obtainned by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994). A long period of about 90 years is found to possibly exist for the sunspot number time series. Cycles that take less time to rise from minimum to maximum of cycle amplitude tend to have large amplitude, and those that have small maximum amplitude tend to run a long time to get ended. It is also found in this paper that the more recent cycles are larger in amplitude and shorter both in cycle length and the rising time of solar cycle than the earlier ones.展开更多
Studies on the periodic variation and the phase relationship between different solar activity indicators are useful for understanding the long-term evolution of solar activity cycles.Here we report the statistical ana...Studies on the periodic variation and the phase relationship between different solar activity indicators are useful for understanding the long-term evolution of solar activity cycles.Here we report the statistical analysis of grouped solar flare(GSF) and sunspot number(SN) during the time interval from January 1965 to March 2009.We find that,(1) the significant periodicities of both GSF and SN are related to the differential rotation periodicity,the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO),and the eleven-year Schwabe cycle(ESC),but the specific values are not absolutely identical;(2) the ESC signal of GSF lags behind that of SN with an average of 7.8 months during the considered time interval,which implies that the systematic phase delays between GSF and SN originate from the inter-solar-cycle signal.Our results may provide evidence about the storage of magnetic energy in the corona.展开更多
This is a study designed to analyze the relationship between ground level enhancements（GLEs）and their associated solar active regions during solar cycles 22and 23.Results show that 90.3%of the GLE events that are in...This is a study designed to analyze the relationship between ground level enhancements（GLEs）and their associated solar active regions during solar cycles 22and 23.Results show that 90.3%of the GLE events that are investigated are accompanied by X-class flares,and that 77.4%of the GLE events originate from super active regions.It is found that the intensity of a GLE event is strongly associated with the specific position of an active region where the GLE event occurs.As a consequence,the GLE events having a peak increase rate exceeding 50%occur in a longitudinal range from W20 to W100.Moreover,the largest GLE events occur in a heliographic longitude at roughly W60.Additionally,an analysis is made to understand the distributional pattern of the Carrington longitude of the active regions that have generated the GLE events.展开更多
The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the...The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices（ESAI）elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI＇s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.展开更多
Using data-driven algorithms to accurately forecast solar flares requires reliable data sets.The solar flare dataset is composed of many non-flaring samples with a small percentage of flaring samples.This is called th...Using data-driven algorithms to accurately forecast solar flares requires reliable data sets.The solar flare dataset is composed of many non-flaring samples with a small percentage of flaring samples.This is called the class imbalance problem in data mining tasks.The prediction model is sensitive to most classes of the original data set during training.Therefore,the class imbalance problem for building up the flare prediction model from observational data should be systematically discussed.Aiming at the problem of class imbalance,three strategies are proposed corresponding to the data set,loss function,and training process:TypeⅠresamples the training samples,including oversampling for the minority class,undersampling,or mixed sampling for the majority class.TypeⅡusually changes the decision-making boundary,assigning the majority and minority categories of prediction loss to different weights.TypeⅢassigns different weights to the training samples,the majority categories are assigned smaller weights,and the minority categories are assigned larger weights to improve the training process of the prediction model.The main work of this paper compares these imbalance processing methods when building a flare prediction model and tries to find the optimal strategy.Our results show that among these strategies,the performance of oversampling and sample weighting is better than other strategies in most parameters,and the generality of resampling and changing the decision boundary is better.展开更多
Solar eruptive events,like flares and coronal mass ejections,are characterized by the rapid release of energy that can give rise to emission of radiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum and to an abrupt sig...Solar eruptive events,like flares and coronal mass ejections,are characterized by the rapid release of energy that can give rise to emission of radiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum and to an abrupt significant increase in the kinetic energy of particles.These energetic phenomena can have important effects on the space weather conditions and therefore it is necessary to understand their origin,in particular,what is the eruptive potential of an active region(AR).In these case studies,we compare two distinct methods that were used in previous works to investigate the variations of some characteristic physical parameters during the pre-flare states of flaring ARs.These methods consider:i)the magnetic flux evolution and magnetic helicity accumulation,and ii)the fractal and multi-fractal properties of flux concentrations in ARs.Our comparative analysis is based on time series of photospheric data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory between March 2011 and June 2013.We selected two distinct samples of ARs:one is distinguished by the occurrence of more energetic M-and X-class flare events,that may have a rapid effect on not just the near-Earth space,but also on the terrestrial environment;the second is characterized by no-flares or having just a few C-and B-class flares.We found that the two tested methods complement each other in their ability to assess the eruptive potentials of ARs and could be employed to identify ARs prone to flaring activity.Based on the presented case study,we suggest that using a combination of different methods may aid to identify more reliably the eruptive potentials of ARs and help to better understand the pre-flare states.展开更多
We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs)during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the g...We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs)during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index)during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68)and aa index(0.86)during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13±14.97 and 104.23±17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24.Further,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024.While the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.展开更多
The ratio of penumbral to umbra area of sunspots plays a crucial role in the solar physics fields, especially for understanding the origin and evolution of the solar activity cycle. By analyzing the recently digitized...The ratio of penumbral to umbra area of sunspots plays a crucial role in the solar physics fields, especially for understanding the origin and evolution of the solar activity cycle. By analyzing the recently digitized sunspot drawings observed from Yunnan Observatories(1957–2021), we investigate the long-term variation of the penumbral to umbra area ratio of sunspots. An automatic extraction method, based on the maximum between-class variance and the morphological discrimination, is used to accurately extract penumbra and umbra and to calculate the ratio over six solar cycles(cycle 19–24). The expected value of the ratio of penumbra to umbra area is found to be 6.63 ± 0.98, and it does not exhibit any systematic variation with sunspot latitudes and phases. The average ratio fluctuates from 5 to 7.5 per year and the overall trend has decreased after 1999 compared to the previous one.The ratio of sunspot penumbra to umbra area satisfies the log-normal distribution, implying that its variation is related to the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field. Our results are consistent with previous works.展开更多
Extreme space weather events including≥X5.0 flares,ground level enhancement(GLE)events and super geomagnetic storms(Dst≥-250 nT)caused by super active regions(SARs)during solar cycles 21-24 were studied.The total nu...Extreme space weather events including≥X5.0 flares,ground level enhancement(GLE)events and super geomagnetic storms(Dst≥-250 nT)caused by super active regions(SARs)during solar cycles 21-24 were studied.The total number ofX5.0 solar flares was 62,among which 41 were X5.0-X9.9 flares and 21 were≥X10.0 flares.We found that 83.9%of the≥X5.0 flares were produced by SARs;78.05%of the X5.0-X9.9 and 95.24%of the≥X10.0 solar flares were produced by SARs;46 GLEs were registered during solar cycles 21-24,and 25 GLEs were caused by SARs,indicating that 54.3%of the GLEs were caused by SARs;24 super geomagnetic storms were recorded during solar cycles 21-24,and 12 of them were caused by SARs,namely 50%of the super geomagnetic storms were caused by SARs.We ascertained that only 29 SARs produced≥X5.0 flares,15 SARs generated GLEs and 10 SARs triggered super geomagnetic storms.Of the 51 SARs,only 33 SARs produced at least one extreme space weather event,while none of the other 18 SARs could trigger an extreme space weather event.There were only four SARs and each of them generated not only a≥X5.0 flare,but also a GLE event and a super geomagnetic storm.Most of the extreme space weather events caused by the SARs appeared during solar cycles 22 and 23,especially for GLE events and super geomagnetic storms.The longitudinal distributions of source locations for the extreme space weather events caused by SARs were also studied.展开更多
At present,many works about MHD wave diagnostics in magnetic flux tubes are based on some pioneering works not considering the contributions of magnetic twist.Other works considered the effect on MHD waves,but the dis...At present,many works about MHD wave diagnostics in magnetic flux tubes are based on some pioneering works not considering the contributions of magnetic twist.Other works considered the effect on MHD waves,but the dispersion relationship they presented only gave the wave modes of m=0,1,2...The kink mode of m=−1 was absent.Therefore,in this work we present a complete dispersion relationship that includes both magnetic twist and the wave mode of m=−1.Analogous to the m=+1 wave mode,the mode of m=−1 also exhibits the mode change at finite kr0,from body to surface mode.The phase speeds of this mode are usually less than those of m=+1 mode.The harmonic curves of m=±1 modes in dispersion relationship diagrams are approximately symmetric in respect to a characteristic velocity,e.g.the tube velocity in flux tubes.Based on the present dispersion relationship,we revisit the issue of spiral wave patterns in sunspots and find that the magnetic twist has no great influence on their morphology in the frame of linear perturbation analysis.展开更多
过去的一系列研究表明在太阳光球表面,随着纵向磁场的增强,对应区域所观测到的震波能量随之降低.为了进一步研究震波和磁场的关系,使用日震和磁成像仪(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager,HMI)的数据,通过对视向磁场进行势场外推得到磁...过去的一系列研究表明在太阳光球表面,随着纵向磁场的增强,对应区域所观测到的震波能量随之降低.为了进一步研究震波和磁场的关系,使用日震和磁成像仪(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager,HMI)的数据,通过对视向磁场进行势场外推得到磁场总强度,与震波能量进行关联.对一定总磁场区域的p模式震波能量拟合可以得到其随总磁场强度而变化的关系.研究证实了震波能量与磁场总强度有更强关联.不同活动区的结果表明p模式震波能量随着磁场总强度增加而下降的趋势在500 Gs以下非常接近,在500 Gs至1000 Gs范围内有略微差别.并且p模式震波能量的对数与总磁场强度有较强的线性相关性.对比迈克尔逊多普勒成像仪(Michelson Doppler Imager,MDI)和HMI得到的结果时发现,虽然MDI观测的磁场结果整体会比HMI观测结果偏大,但归一化p模式震波能量与磁场强度的关系分析对比结果相差不大.展开更多
A longitudinal magnetic field often suffers the saturation effect in a strong magnetic field region when the measurement is performed at a single-wavelength point and linear calibration is adopted.In this study,we dev...A longitudinal magnetic field often suffers the saturation effect in a strong magnetic field region when the measurement is performed at a single-wavelength point and linear calibration is adopted.In this study,we develop a method that can judge the threshold of saturation in Stokes V/I observed by the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope(SMFT)and correct it automatically.The procedure is to first perform the second-order polynomial fit to the Stokes V/I vs.I/I_(m)(I_(m) is the maximum value of Stokes I)curve to estimate the threshold of saturation,then reconstruct Stokes V/I in a strong field region to correct for saturation.The algorithm is demonstrated to be effective by comparing with the magnetograms obtained by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager(HMI).The accuracy rate of detection and correction for saturation is~99.4%and~88%respectively among 175 active regions.The advantages and disadvantages of the algorithm are discussed.展开更多
We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the ampli...We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.展开更多
Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cy...Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.展开更多
基金This work is supported by National Nature Science Foundation Project No.4999-0451Space Environmental Prediction CenterCenter for Space Science and Applied Research, CAS, China.
文摘We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar,cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.
文摘Solar magnetic activity is expressed via variations of sunspots and active regions varying on different timescales. The most accepted is an 11-year period supposedly induced by the electromagnetic solar dynamo mechanism. There are also some shorter or longer timescales detected: the biennial cycle (2 - 2.7 years), Gleisberg cycle (80 - 100 years), and Hallstatt’s cycle (2100 - 2300 years). Recently, using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) of the observed solar background magnetic field (SBMF), another period of 330 - 380 years, or Grand Solar Cycle (GSC), was derived from the summary curve of two eigenvectors of SBMF. In this paper, a spectral analysis of the averaged sunspot numbers, solar irradiance, and the summary curve of eigenvectors of SBMF was carried out using Morlet wavelet and Fourier transforms. We detect a 10.7-year cycle from the sunspots and modulus summary curve of eigenvectors as well a 22-year-cycle and the grand solar cycle of 342 - 350-years from the summary curve of eigenvectors. The Gleissberg centennial cycle is only detected on the full set of averaged sunspot numbers for 400 years or by adding a quadruple component to the summary curve of eigenvectors. Another period of 2200 - 2300 years is detected in the Holocene data of solar irradiance measured from the abundance of 14C isotope. This period was also confirmed with the period of about 2000 - 2100 years derived from a baseline of the solar background magnetic field, supposedly, caused by the solar inertial motion (SIM) induced by the gravitation of large planets. The implication of these findings for different deposition of solar radiation into the northern and southern hemispheres of the Earth caused by the combined effects of the solar activity and solar inertial motion on the terrestrial atmosphere is also discussed.
基金supported by the Joint Funds of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (U1931107)the Key Applied Basic Research Program of Yunnan Province (2018FA035)+1 种基金the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 11761141002 and 11873089)the Youth Innovation Promotion Association CAS
文摘Three-and five-minute sunspot oscillations have different spatial distributions in the solar atmospheric layers.The spatial distributions are crucial for revealing the physical origin of sunspot oscillations and to investigate their propagation.In this study,six sunspots observed by Solar Dynamics Observatory/Atmospheric Imaging Assembly were used to obtain the spatial distributions of three-and five-minute oscillations.The fast Fourier transform method is applied to represent the power spectra of oscillation modes.We find that,from the temperature minimum to the lower corona,the powers of the fiveminute oscillation exhibit a circle-shape distribution around its umbra,and the shapes gradually expand with temperature increase.However,the circle-shape disappears and the powers of the oscillations appear to be very disordered in the higher corona.This indicates that the five-minute oscillation can be suppressed in the high-temperature region.For the three-minute oscillations,from the temperature minimum to the high corona,their powers mostly distribute within an umbra,and part of them are located at the coronal fan loop structures.Moreover,those relative higher powers are mostly concentrated in the position of coronal loop footpoints.
文摘Characteristics of the sunspot cycle described by the international sunspot numbers are investigated based on the results obtainned by Hathaway, Wilson, and Reichmann (1994). A long period of about 90 years is found to possibly exist for the sunspot number time series. Cycles that take less time to rise from minimum to maximum of cycle amplitude tend to have large amplitude, and those that have small maximum amplitude tend to run a long time to get ended. It is also found in this paper that the more recent cycles are larger in amplitude and shorter both in cycle length and the rising time of solar cycle than the earlier ones.
基金supported by the National Key Research and Development Program of China(2018YFA0404603)the Joint Research Fund in Astronomy(Nos.U1831204,U1931141 and U1631129)under cooperative agreement between the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and the Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS)+3 种基金the NSFC(11903009)the Yunnan Key Research and Development Program(2018IA054)the open research program of the CAS Key Laboratory of Solar Activity(KLSA201807)the major scientific research project of Guangdong regular institutions of higher learning(2017KZDXM062)
文摘Studies on the periodic variation and the phase relationship between different solar activity indicators are useful for understanding the long-term evolution of solar activity cycles.Here we report the statistical analysis of grouped solar flare(GSF) and sunspot number(SN) during the time interval from January 1965 to March 2009.We find that,(1) the significant periodicities of both GSF and SN are related to the differential rotation periodicity,the quasi-biennial oscillation(QBO),and the eleven-year Schwabe cycle(ESC),but the specific values are not absolutely identical;(2) the ESC signal of GSF lags behind that of SN with an average of 7.8 months during the considered time interval,which implies that the systematic phase delays between GSF and SN originate from the inter-solar-cycle signal.Our results may provide evidence about the storage of magnetic energy in the corona.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 41074132, 41274193, 40931056 and 41031064)the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, Grant Nos. 2012CB957801 and 2011CB811406)+1 种基金the National Standard Research Program (Grant No. 10-123)the program SOA Key Laboratory for Polar Science, Polar Research Institute of China (Grant No. KP201206)
文摘This is a study designed to analyze the relationship between ground level enhancements（GLEs）and their associated solar active regions during solar cycles 22and 23.Results show that 90.3%of the GLE events that are investigated are accompanied by X-class flares,and that 77.4%of the GLE events originate from super active regions.It is found that the intensity of a GLE event is strongly associated with the specific position of an active region where the GLE event occurs.As a consequence,the GLE events having a peak increase rate exceeding 50%occur in a longitudinal range from W20 to W100.Moreover,the largest GLE events occur in a heliographic longitude at roughly W60.Additionally,an analysis is made to understand the distributional pattern of the Carrington longitude of the active regions that have generated the GLE events.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(11573065 and 11633008)the Specialized Research Fund for State Key Laboratories and the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘The latitudinal migration of sunspots toward the equator,which implies there is propagation of the toroidal magnetic flux wave at the base of the solar convection zone,is one of the crucial observational bases for the solar dynamo to generate a magnetic field by shearing of the pre-existing poloidal magnetic field through differential rotation.The Extended time series of Solar Activity Indices（ESAI）elongated the Greenwich observation record of sunspots by several decades in the past.In this study,ESAI＇s yearly mean latitude of sunspots in the northern and southern hemispheres during the years 1854 to 1985 is utilized to statistically test whether hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle is linear or nonlinear.It is found that a quadratic function is statistically significantly better at describing hemispherical latitudinal migration of sunspots in a solar cycle than a linear function.In addition,the latitude migration velocity of sunspots in a solar cycle decreases as the cycle progresses,providing a particular constraint for solar dynamo models.Indeed,the butterfly wing pattern with a faster latitudinal migration rate should present stronger solar activity with a shorter cycle period,and it is located at higher latitudinal position,giving evidence to support the Babcock-Leighton dynamo mechanism.
文摘Using data-driven algorithms to accurately forecast solar flares requires reliable data sets.The solar flare dataset is composed of many non-flaring samples with a small percentage of flaring samples.This is called the class imbalance problem in data mining tasks.The prediction model is sensitive to most classes of the original data set during training.Therefore,the class imbalance problem for building up the flare prediction model from observational data should be systematically discussed.Aiming at the problem of class imbalance,three strategies are proposed corresponding to the data set,loss function,and training process:TypeⅠresamples the training samples,including oversampling for the minority class,undersampling,or mixed sampling for the majority class.TypeⅡusually changes the decision-making boundary,assigning the majority and minority categories of prediction loss to different weights.TypeⅢassigns different weights to the training samples,the majority categories are assigned smaller weights,and the minority categories are assigned larger weights to improve the training process of the prediction model.The main work of this paper compares these imbalance processing methods when building a flare prediction model and tries to find the optimal strategy.Our results show that among these strategies,the performance of oversampling and sample weighting is better than other strategies in most parameters,and the generality of resampling and changing the decision boundary is better.
基金received funding from the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme under the grant agreements e HEROES(project No.284461)F-Chroma(project No.606862)+11 种基金SOLARNET project(No.312495)from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the grant agreements(PRE-EST project,No.739500)and SOLARNET project(No.824135)support by the Universitàdegli Studi di Catania(Piano per la Ricerca Universitàdi Catania 2016-2018–Linea di intervento 1“Chance”Linea di intervento 2“Dotazione ordinaria”Fondi di Ateneo 20202022,Universitàdi Catania,Linea Open Access)by the Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica(INAF)by the Italian MIUR-PRIN grant 2017APKP7T on“Circumterrestrial Environment:Impact of Sun-Earth Interaction”by Space Weather Italian COmmunity(SWICO)Research Programthe Science and Technology Facilities Council(STFC),(UK,Aberystwyth University,Grant No.ST/S000518/1),for the support received while carrying out this researchthe STFC(UK),Grant No.ST/M000826/1)for the support receivedthe support received by the Royal Society(Grant No.IE161153)by the CAS President’s International Fellowship Initiative(Grant No.2019VMA052)。
文摘Solar eruptive events,like flares and coronal mass ejections,are characterized by the rapid release of energy that can give rise to emission of radiation across the entire electromagnetic spectrum and to an abrupt significant increase in the kinetic energy of particles.These energetic phenomena can have important effects on the space weather conditions and therefore it is necessary to understand their origin,in particular,what is the eruptive potential of an active region(AR).In these case studies,we compare two distinct methods that were used in previous works to investigate the variations of some characteristic physical parameters during the pre-flare states of flaring ARs.These methods consider:i)the magnetic flux evolution and magnetic helicity accumulation,and ii)the fractal and multi-fractal properties of flux concentrations in ARs.Our comparative analysis is based on time series of photospheric data obtained by the Solar Dynamics Observatory between March 2011 and June 2013.We selected two distinct samples of ARs:one is distinguished by the occurrence of more energetic M-and X-class flare events,that may have a rapid effect on not just the near-Earth space,but also on the terrestrial environment;the second is characterized by no-flares or having just a few C-and B-class flares.We found that the two tested methods complement each other in their ability to assess the eruptive potentials of ARs and could be employed to identify ARs prone to flaring activity.Based on the presented case study,we suggest that using a combination of different methods may aid to identify more reliably the eruptive potentials of ARs and help to better understand the pre-flare states.
基金funding support from NSFC-11950410498KLSA-202010 grants。
文摘We study the sunspot activity in relation to spotless days(SLDs)during the descending phase of solar cycles 11-24 to predict the amplitude of sunspot cycle 25.For this purpose,in addition to SLD,we also consider the geomagnetic activity(aa index)during the descending phase of a given cycle.A very strong correlation of the SLD(0.68)and aa index(0.86)during the descending phase of a given cycle with the maximum amplitude of next solar cycle has been estimated.The empirical relationship led us to deduce the amplitude of cycle 25 to be 99.13±14.97 and 104.23±17.35 using SLD and aa index,respectively as predictors.Both the predictors provide comparable amplitude for solar cycle 25 and reveal that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than cycle 24.Further,we predict that the maximum of cycle 25 is likely to occur between February and March 2024.While the aa index has been utilized extensively in the past,this work establishes SLDs as another potential candidate for predicting the characteristics of the next cycle.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. U2031202 and U1731124)the special foundation work of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant No. 2014FY120300)the 13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences (Grant No. XXH13505-04)。
文摘The ratio of penumbral to umbra area of sunspots plays a crucial role in the solar physics fields, especially for understanding the origin and evolution of the solar activity cycle. By analyzing the recently digitized sunspot drawings observed from Yunnan Observatories(1957–2021), we investigate the long-term variation of the penumbral to umbra area ratio of sunspots. An automatic extraction method, based on the maximum between-class variance and the morphological discrimination, is used to accurately extract penumbra and umbra and to calculate the ratio over six solar cycles(cycle 19–24). The expected value of the ratio of penumbra to umbra area is found to be 6.63 ± 0.98, and it does not exhibit any systematic variation with sunspot latitudes and phases. The average ratio fluctuates from 5 to 7.5 per year and the overall trend has decreased after 1999 compared to the previous one.The ratio of sunspot penumbra to umbra area satisfies the log-normal distribution, implying that its variation is related to the evolution of the photospheric magnetic field. Our results are consistent with previous works.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.41774085,41074132,41274193,41474166,41774195 and 41874187).
文摘Extreme space weather events including≥X5.0 flares,ground level enhancement(GLE)events and super geomagnetic storms(Dst≥-250 nT)caused by super active regions(SARs)during solar cycles 21-24 were studied.The total number ofX5.0 solar flares was 62,among which 41 were X5.0-X9.9 flares and 21 were≥X10.0 flares.We found that 83.9%of the≥X5.0 flares were produced by SARs;78.05%of the X5.0-X9.9 and 95.24%of the≥X10.0 solar flares were produced by SARs;46 GLEs were registered during solar cycles 21-24,and 25 GLEs were caused by SARs,indicating that 54.3%of the GLEs were caused by SARs;24 super geomagnetic storms were recorded during solar cycles 21-24,and 12 of them were caused by SARs,namely 50%of the super geomagnetic storms were caused by SARs.We ascertained that only 29 SARs produced≥X5.0 flares,15 SARs generated GLEs and 10 SARs triggered super geomagnetic storms.Of the 51 SARs,only 33 SARs produced at least one extreme space weather event,while none of the other 18 SARs could trigger an extreme space weather event.There were only four SARs and each of them generated not only a≥X5.0 flare,but also a GLE event and a super geomagnetic storm.Most of the extreme space weather events caused by the SARs appeared during solar cycles 22 and 23,especially for GLE events and super geomagnetic storms.The longitudinal distributions of source locations for the extreme space weather events caused by SARs were also studied.
基金This work is supported by the Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science,the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA15320302,XDA15052200 and XDA15320102)National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11773038,U1731241 and 11427803)+2 种基金the 13th Fiveyear Informatization Plan of the Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grand No.XXH13505-04)RS research was performed within the basic funding from FR program II.16,RAS program KP19-270supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences President’s International Fellowship Initiative(Grant No.2020VMA0032).
文摘At present,many works about MHD wave diagnostics in magnetic flux tubes are based on some pioneering works not considering the contributions of magnetic twist.Other works considered the effect on MHD waves,but the dispersion relationship they presented only gave the wave modes of m=0,1,2...The kink mode of m=−1 was absent.Therefore,in this work we present a complete dispersion relationship that includes both magnetic twist and the wave mode of m=−1.Analogous to the m=+1 wave mode,the mode of m=−1 also exhibits the mode change at finite kr0,from body to surface mode.The phase speeds of this mode are usually less than those of m=+1 mode.The harmonic curves of m=±1 modes in dispersion relationship diagrams are approximately symmetric in respect to a characteristic velocity,e.g.the tube velocity in flux tubes.Based on the present dispersion relationship,we revisit the issue of spiral wave patterns in sunspots and find that the magnetic twist has no great influence on their morphology in the frame of linear perturbation analysis.
文摘过去的一系列研究表明在太阳光球表面,随着纵向磁场的增强,对应区域所观测到的震波能量随之降低.为了进一步研究震波和磁场的关系,使用日震和磁成像仪(Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager,HMI)的数据,通过对视向磁场进行势场外推得到磁场总强度,与震波能量进行关联.对一定总磁场区域的p模式震波能量拟合可以得到其随总磁场强度而变化的关系.研究证实了震波能量与磁场总强度有更强关联.不同活动区的结果表明p模式震波能量随着磁场总强度增加而下降的趋势在500 Gs以下非常接近,在500 Gs至1000 Gs范围内有略微差别.并且p模式震波能量的对数与总磁场强度有较强的线性相关性.对比迈克尔逊多普勒成像仪(Michelson Doppler Imager,MDI)和HMI得到的结果时发现,虽然MDI观测的磁场结果整体会比HMI观测结果偏大,但归一化p模式震波能量与磁场强度的关系分析对比结果相差不大.
基金supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(Grant Nos.11703042,11911530089,U1731241,11773038,11427901,11427803,11673033,U1831107,11873062)the Strategic Priority Research Program on Space Science+1 种基金Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant Nos.XDA15320302,XDA15052200,XDA15320102)the13th Five-year Informatization Plan of Chinese Academy of Sciences(Grant No.XXH13505–04)。
文摘A longitudinal magnetic field often suffers the saturation effect in a strong magnetic field region when the measurement is performed at a single-wavelength point and linear calibration is adopted.In this study,we develop a method that can judge the threshold of saturation in Stokes V/I observed by the Solar Magnetic Field Telescope(SMFT)and correct it automatically.The procedure is to first perform the second-order polynomial fit to the Stokes V/I vs.I/I_(m)(I_(m) is the maximum value of Stokes I)curve to estimate the threshold of saturation,then reconstruct Stokes V/I in a strong field region to correct for saturation.The algorithm is demonstrated to be effective by comparing with the magnetograms obtained by the Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager(HMI).The accuracy rate of detection and correction for saturation is~99.4%and~88%respectively among 175 active regions.The advantages and disadvantages of the algorithm are discussed.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China
文摘We investigate the wavelet transform of yearly mean relative sunspot number series from 1700 to 2002. The curve of the global wavelet power spectrum peaks at 11-yr, 53-yr and 101-yr periods. The evolution of the amplitudes of the three periods is studied. The results show that around 1750 and 1800, the amplitude of the 53-yr period was much higher than that of the the 11-yr period, that the ca. 53-yr period was apparent only for the interval from 1725 to 1850, and was very low after 1850, that around 1750, 1800 and 1900, the amplitude of the 101-yr period was higher than that of the 11-yr period and that, from 1940 to 2000, the 11-yr period greatly dominates over the other two periods.
基金This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 4999-0451 and 10073013) Space Environment Forecast Center, CSSAR, CAS.
文摘Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.
