The impact of topography on heavy rainfall during two rain seasons was investigated in order to explain their mechanisms on rainfall distribution over Rwanda. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used ...The impact of topography on heavy rainfall during two rain seasons was investigated in order to explain their mechanisms on rainfall distribution over Rwanda. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to study two historical cases of heavy rainfall which took place over Rwanda during two rain seasons, March to May (MAM) and September to December (SOND), from April 7 to 9, 2012 (for MAM) and from October 29 to 31, 2012 (during SOND). The control experiment was done with actual topography, whereas sensitivity experiment was carried out with topography reduced by half. Results show that rainfall distribution over Rwanda significantly changes when topography is reduced. The reduction in topography leads to a decrease in rainfall amounts in both MAM and SOND seasons, with varying magnitudes. This reveals the importance of orography in determining rainfall amounts and distribution over the region. The accumulated rainfall amount from WRF underestimate or overestimate rain gauge stations data by region and by season, but there is good agreement especially in altitude below 1490 m and above 1554 m during April and October respectively. The results may motivate modelling carters to further improve parameterization schemes in the mountainous regions.展开更多
Twice investigations around Hangzhou area show that ^7Be content average in the ground air is 5.9mBq.m^-3.The content of ^7Be is the highest in autumn-winter period reaching about 7.7mBq.m^-3,the next is in spring abo...Twice investigations around Hangzhou area show that ^7Be content average in the ground air is 5.9mBq.m^-3.The content of ^7Be is the highest in autumn-winter period reaching about 7.7mBq.m^-3,the next is in spring about 6.2mBq.m^-3.then is in the early summer about 5.7mBq.m^-3,close to the annual average level;and the lowest in a year is in summer-autumm period with a value about 3.8mBq.m^-3.Exhibited is a decreasing trend from autumn-winter period to summer-autumn of the next year,which is negatively correlated with the variation of the seasonal rainfall in Hangzhou area.But this trend is different from that reported by UNSCEAR:it is the highest in spring and the lowest in the late autumn,which is based only on ^7Be falling down from the stratosphere.However,the present investigation shows that the seasonal rainfall is the main factor influencing the variation tend of ^7Be content in the air.展开更多
here are limitations in using the seasonal rainfall total in studies of Monsoon rainfall climatology. A correlation analysis of the individual station seasonal rainfall with all India seasonal mean rainfall has been m...here are limitations in using the seasonal rainfall total in studies of Monsoon rainfall climatology. A correlation analysis of the individual station seasonal rainfall with all India seasonal mean rainfall has been made. After taking the significance test (strictly up to 5% level) the stations which are significantly correlated have been considered in this study in normal, flood and drought years respectively. Analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 50 stations spread over a period of 41 years suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship when seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is studied. The linear relationship is also found to be better in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity.展开更多
Climate extremes have increased in the recent past and they are further being exacerbated by climate change and variability. In this paper, we sought to determine rainfall characteristics over the Lake Victoria Basin ...Climate extremes have increased in the recent past and they are further being exacerbated by climate change and variability. In this paper, we sought to determine rainfall characteristics over the Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya in 1987-2016, as a basis of understanding climate variability. The methodology used included;Standardized Precipitation Index to depict variability, coefficient of variation for spatial analysis and the Mann-Kendall test to test the presence of trends in data. We established that Lake Victoria basin is relatively wet through-out the year, with two distinct rainfall seasons March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND) that support human livelihood and ecology. The normal wetness conditions have declined over time, paving way for both dry and wet extremes conditions between 1997-1998 and 2002-2006, respectively. The rainfall extremes have become frequent in the last decade in 2007-2016. We also established a decline in the MAM rainfall seasons, and an increase during the October-December rainfall seasons in 1987-2016. Furthermore, the number of rainy days has declined with the onset and cessations of both long rains and short rains having shown a variability of at least 50% and 30% respectively, in a range of about 100 to 200 Julian days. The decline in wet condition is likely to affect economic activities especially the rainfed agriculture. The changing rainfall trends over the basin therefore, call for proper human livelihood planning and ecological monitoring in order to achieve ecological sustainability.展开更多
A relationship between oceanic conditions in the northwestern equatorial Atlantic (NWEA) and the seasonal rainfall over the northern part of Brazilian Northeast (NNEB) allows large climate events to be forecasted with...A relationship between oceanic conditions in the northwestern equatorial Atlantic (NWEA) and the seasonal rainfall over the northern part of Brazilian Northeast (NNEB) allows large climate events to be forecasted with a delay of a few months. Observed sea surface variables (sea surface temperature, wind stress and latent heat flux) and reanalyzed temperature and salinity profiles at depths of 0 - 150 m are used during 1974-2008. Perturbations in the Wind-Evaporation-SST mechanism over the NWEA during the last months of the year and the first months of the following year are of primary importance in evaluating the risk that strong climate events will affect the subsequent seasonal rainfall (in March-April) over the NNEB. Especially interesting are the Barrier Layer Thickness (BLT) and Ocean Heat Content (OHC) in the NWEA region from August-September through the subsequent months, during which a slow and steady evolution is apparent, with the highest signal occurring in October-November. Through their relationship with the local surface dynamic conditions, such BLT and OHC perturbations during the last months of the year can be used as a valuable indicator for forecasting wet or dry events over the NNEB during the subsequent rainfall season. A proposal is discussed to deploy additional temperature/conductivity sensors down to a depth of 140 m at three PIRATA moorings located in the NWEA region. That will be necessary if the BLT and other parameters of energy exchange between the ocean and atmosphere are to be estimated in real time and with a sufficiently high vertical resolution.展开更多
文摘The impact of topography on heavy rainfall during two rain seasons was investigated in order to explain their mechanisms on rainfall distribution over Rwanda. Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model was used to study two historical cases of heavy rainfall which took place over Rwanda during two rain seasons, March to May (MAM) and September to December (SOND), from April 7 to 9, 2012 (for MAM) and from October 29 to 31, 2012 (during SOND). The control experiment was done with actual topography, whereas sensitivity experiment was carried out with topography reduced by half. Results show that rainfall distribution over Rwanda significantly changes when topography is reduced. The reduction in topography leads to a decrease in rainfall amounts in both MAM and SOND seasons, with varying magnitudes. This reveals the importance of orography in determining rainfall amounts and distribution over the region. The accumulated rainfall amount from WRF underestimate or overestimate rain gauge stations data by region and by season, but there is good agreement especially in altitude below 1490 m and above 1554 m during April and October respectively. The results may motivate modelling carters to further improve parameterization schemes in the mountainous regions.
文摘Twice investigations around Hangzhou area show that ^7Be content average in the ground air is 5.9mBq.m^-3.The content of ^7Be is the highest in autumn-winter period reaching about 7.7mBq.m^-3,the next is in spring about 6.2mBq.m^-3.then is in the early summer about 5.7mBq.m^-3,close to the annual average level;and the lowest in a year is in summer-autumm period with a value about 3.8mBq.m^-3.Exhibited is a decreasing trend from autumn-winter period to summer-autumn of the next year,which is negatively correlated with the variation of the seasonal rainfall in Hangzhou area.But this trend is different from that reported by UNSCEAR:it is the highest in spring and the lowest in the late autumn,which is based only on ^7Be falling down from the stratosphere.However,the present investigation shows that the seasonal rainfall is the main factor influencing the variation tend of ^7Be content in the air.
文摘here are limitations in using the seasonal rainfall total in studies of Monsoon rainfall climatology. A correlation analysis of the individual station seasonal rainfall with all India seasonal mean rainfall has been made. After taking the significance test (strictly up to 5% level) the stations which are significantly correlated have been considered in this study in normal, flood and drought years respectively. Analysis of seasonal rainfall data of 50 stations spread over a period of 41 years suggests that a linear relationship fits better than the logarithmic relationship when seasonal rainfall versus number of rainy days is studied. The linear relationship is also found to be better in the case of seasonal rainfall versus mean daily intensity.
文摘Climate extremes have increased in the recent past and they are further being exacerbated by climate change and variability. In this paper, we sought to determine rainfall characteristics over the Lake Victoria Basin of Kenya in 1987-2016, as a basis of understanding climate variability. The methodology used included;Standardized Precipitation Index to depict variability, coefficient of variation for spatial analysis and the Mann-Kendall test to test the presence of trends in data. We established that Lake Victoria basin is relatively wet through-out the year, with two distinct rainfall seasons March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND) that support human livelihood and ecology. The normal wetness conditions have declined over time, paving way for both dry and wet extremes conditions between 1997-1998 and 2002-2006, respectively. The rainfall extremes have become frequent in the last decade in 2007-2016. We also established a decline in the MAM rainfall seasons, and an increase during the October-December rainfall seasons in 1987-2016. Furthermore, the number of rainy days has declined with the onset and cessations of both long rains and short rains having shown a variability of at least 50% and 30% respectively, in a range of about 100 to 200 Julian days. The decline in wet condition is likely to affect economic activities especially the rainfed agriculture. The changing rainfall trends over the basin therefore, call for proper human livelihood planning and ecological monitoring in order to achieve ecological sustainability.
文摘A relationship between oceanic conditions in the northwestern equatorial Atlantic (NWEA) and the seasonal rainfall over the northern part of Brazilian Northeast (NNEB) allows large climate events to be forecasted with a delay of a few months. Observed sea surface variables (sea surface temperature, wind stress and latent heat flux) and reanalyzed temperature and salinity profiles at depths of 0 - 150 m are used during 1974-2008. Perturbations in the Wind-Evaporation-SST mechanism over the NWEA during the last months of the year and the first months of the following year are of primary importance in evaluating the risk that strong climate events will affect the subsequent seasonal rainfall (in March-April) over the NNEB. Especially interesting are the Barrier Layer Thickness (BLT) and Ocean Heat Content (OHC) in the NWEA region from August-September through the subsequent months, during which a slow and steady evolution is apparent, with the highest signal occurring in October-November. Through their relationship with the local surface dynamic conditions, such BLT and OHC perturbations during the last months of the year can be used as a valuable indicator for forecasting wet or dry events over the NNEB during the subsequent rainfall season. A proposal is discussed to deploy additional temperature/conductivity sensors down to a depth of 140 m at three PIRATA moorings located in the NWEA region. That will be necessary if the BLT and other parameters of energy exchange between the ocean and atmosphere are to be estimated in real time and with a sufficiently high vertical resolution.
