The assessment of the performance of the October to December (OND), 2019 rainfall season in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba) with reference to local downscaled Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecast, and regional...The assessment of the performance of the October to December (OND), 2019 rainfall season in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba) with reference to local downscaled Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecast, and regional (Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Center (IGAD-ICPAC) weather forecasts were assessed by comparing the long term average of OND rainfall data and previous OND rainfall seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 as well as extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during OND seasons of 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 and 2019 for Zanzibar. The study assessed zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds at 850 and 200 mb, monthly and dekadal sea surface temperature (SST);the Madden Julien Oscillations (MJO) forecast reports and the ocean heat content data. Both gridded and observed datasets were processed into dekadal, monthly and seasonal averages and then analysed. The results revealed that, based on the observations, above normal rainfall of 936 and 908 mm were reported at stations of Kisauni (Unguja) and Karume airport (Pemba) during 2019 OND season. This amount was the first and second ever recorded for the extreme positive IOD during OND seasons of 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 and 2019, and also the first for the previous higher OND rainfall seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 which was highly variable. Moreover, these values were second ever-recorded highest OND rainfall since 1916 to 2019 where the first one was observed in 1961. Furthermore, the results revealed that 2019 OND seasonal rainfall had the highest amount of contribution based on historical climatology. For instance, the 2019 OND rainfall for Kisauni, Pemba airport and Matangatuani contributed to 198%, 303% and 231% of the long term (1987-2016) mean OND rainfall in Zanzibar. Indeed, the results show that the presence of the MJO during OND and the enhanced positive IOD was among the causes for the observed wetness of the 2019 OND in Zanzibar and most parts of the country. Moreover, the dominant easterly, southeasterly and northw展开更多
The difference is examined in atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the trop-ics and subtropics between weak and strong convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool (signified as WPW...The difference is examined in atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the trop-ics and subtropics between weak and strong convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool (signified as WPWP). The WPWP is chosen as the region (110–160°E, 10–20°N), where the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) shows a great year-to-year variance. A composite study was carried out to examine the differences in atmospheric circulation and SSTs between weak and strong convection over WPWP. First, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and satellite-observed OLR data are used to examine the differences. ERA data, in which the OLR data are calculated, are then used for re-examination. The composite results show that the differences are remarkably similar in these two sets of data. The difference in circulations between weak and strong convection over WPWP is significantly associated with westward extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and stronger westerlies at the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. It also corresponds with the significant easterly anomaly and the descent anomaly in situ, i.e., over the WPWP. The most prominent characteristics of the difference of SSTs between weak and strong convection over the WPWP are the significant positive SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. In WPWP, however, there are only weak negative SST anomalies. Thus, the anomaly of OLR over WPWP is weakly associated with the SST anomalies in situ, while closely associated with the SST anomalies west of WPWP. Key words Convection over the western Pacific warm pool - Northwest Pacific subtropical high - Sea surface temperatures This study was supported by the “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 Part 1.展开更多
Between the 1940s and the 1960s there was a significant lowering of the surface temperatures of the central North Pacific. This cool-down is discussed on the basis of analyses of a very large surface temperature data ...Between the 1940s and the 1960s there was a significant lowering of the surface temperatures of the central North Pacific. This cool-down is discussed on the basis of analyses of a very large surface temperature data base, covering most of the North Pacific, which began in 1947 and continued for at least 30 years afterwards. A surface area more than 20 degrees of latitude by approximately 70 degrees of longitude, centered on 40°N, cooled down within about a ten year period by typically 0.5℃ and by as much as 1.0℃. Previously a permanent surface and near surface circulation was proposed in which a shallow very broad warm surface layer flows northeastward at mid-latitudes on the eastern side of the North Pacific while colder water returns southward to the east, west and underneath the warm surface current. It is suggested that variations in this hypothesized circulation, due to natural causes not yet completely understood, potentially provide a mechanism for producing a cooling down (or warming up) of a large region of the central North Pacific at mid-latitudes in a relatively short period of time (ten years or less).展开更多
The study investigated the impacts of tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala (11<sup>th</sup> to 27<sup>th</sup> April, 2016) to the coastal areas of Tanzania, Zanzibar in particular. Daily reanalysis d...The study investigated the impacts of tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala (11<sup>th</sup> to 27<sup>th</sup> April, 2016) to the coastal areas of Tanzania, Zanzibar in particular. Daily reanalysis data consisting of wind speed, sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomaly, and relative humidity from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) were used to analyze the variation in strength of Fantala as it was approaching the Tanzania coastal line. In addition observed rainfall from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) at Zanzibar office, Global Forecasting System (GFS) rainfall estimates and satellite images were used to visualize the impacts of tropical cyclone Fantala to Zanzibar. The results revealed that, TC Fantala was associated with deepening/decreasing in SLP (from 1012 - 1010 mb) around the north-western Madagascar and coastal Tanzania, whereas the mean SSTs was greater than 28<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C and an SSTs anomaly ranged from 0 to 2.3<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C. The vertical wind shear which ridged at Mozambican Channel and over north-eastern Madagascar was high enough (12 - 15 ms<sup>-1</sup>) to support the intensifying of Fantala. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions of Fantala influenced heavy rainfall of greater than 170 mm over most stations in Zanzibar. Moreover, Fantala disrupted the temporal variability of 2016 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall. Besides, more than 420 people were homeless, at least 3330 houses were destroyed, and about 2 people died. As for mainland Tanzania Fantala resulted in a death of 12 people in Kilimanjaro and Arusha, more than 315 houses were washed away by flooding leading to 13,933 people being homeless. Conclusively the study calls for an extensive research work based on examining and forecasting the TCs rainfall impacts and their contribution during the two rainfall seasons of OND and MAM in Tanzania.展开更多
Diatom data from core MD992271 on the North Icelandic shelf record a cooling trend through the last 3000 years. This is indicated by a general decrease in warm water species and an increase in cold water taxa. The rel...Diatom data from core MD992271 on the North Icelandic shelf record a cooling trend through the last 3000 years. This is indicated by a general decrease in warm water species and an increase in cold water taxa. The relative abundance of these two diatom groups changed periodically, suggesting that the climate also fluctuated within this time period. The results of diatom-based transfer function calculation show that the summer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) before 1400 cal. a BP were generally higher than the mean value for the last 3000 years and the summer SSTs fluctuated around the mean between 1400 and 700 cal. a BP, and dropped to the values below the mean after 700 cal. a BP. Four cooling events were distinguished, centered at around 2600, 1900, 1300 and 600 cal. a BP respectively. The results are not only consistent with the data from neighbouring cores HM107-03 and MD992275, but also comparable with those from the GISP2 ice core and from other marine sediment records in the North Atlantic. This suggests that changes in the summer SSTs reflect regional climate variations in the North Atlantic. On the North Icelandic shelf, the summer SST variation is a result of changes in the in-teraction between the cold and the warm currents in the area.展开更多
The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May</span><span style="font-family:""> (MAM) <span>2020 rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanza...The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May</span><span style="font-family:""> (MAM) <span>2020 rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanzania</span> (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. The uniqueness of the October to December, 2019 (OND) rainfall and the extension of the January to February, 2020 rainfall in Zanzibar which coincided with MAM 2020 rainfall was among the issues which prolonged MAM 2020 rainfall in NCT and Zanzibar. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)</span><span style="font-family:"">.</span><span style="font-family:""> Reanalysis 1 datasets of <i>u</i> (zonal)</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:"">and <i>v</i> (meridional)</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:"">winds</span><span style="font-family:"">,</span><span style="font-family:""> sea surface temperatures anomalies, relative humidity, amount of precipitable water and ocean net flux were</span><span style="font-family:""><span style="background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;"> </span></span><span style="background-color:;"></span><span style="font-family:""><span style="background:yellow;"></span><span>analyzed. Other datasets include the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) observed rainfall</span> records</span><span style="font-family:"">,</span><span style="font-family:""> maximum and minimum temperature</span><span style="font-family:"">s</span><span style="font-family:"">. Moreover, <span>TMA and Intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Analysis Cente</span>r (ICPAC)</span><span style="font-family:"">.</span><span style="font-family:""> MAM 2020 rainfall and temperature forecast reports were interpreted. Gridded and observed datasets were calculated into monthly and seasonal averages. As for展开更多
文摘The assessment of the performance of the October to December (OND), 2019 rainfall season in Zanzibar (Unguja and Pemba) with reference to local downscaled Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) forecast, and regional (Intergovernmental Authority on Development Climate Prediction and Application Center (IGAD-ICPAC) weather forecasts were assessed by comparing the long term average of OND rainfall data and previous OND rainfall seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 as well as extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during OND seasons of 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 and 2019 for Zanzibar. The study assessed zonal (u) and meridional (v) winds at 850 and 200 mb, monthly and dekadal sea surface temperature (SST);the Madden Julien Oscillations (MJO) forecast reports and the ocean heat content data. Both gridded and observed datasets were processed into dekadal, monthly and seasonal averages and then analysed. The results revealed that, based on the observations, above normal rainfall of 936 and 908 mm were reported at stations of Kisauni (Unguja) and Karume airport (Pemba) during 2019 OND season. This amount was the first and second ever recorded for the extreme positive IOD during OND seasons of 1961, 1994, 1997, 2006 and 2019, and also the first for the previous higher OND rainfall seasons of 2016, 2017 and 2018 which was highly variable. Moreover, these values were second ever-recorded highest OND rainfall since 1916 to 2019 where the first one was observed in 1961. Furthermore, the results revealed that 2019 OND seasonal rainfall had the highest amount of contribution based on historical climatology. For instance, the 2019 OND rainfall for Kisauni, Pemba airport and Matangatuani contributed to 198%, 303% and 231% of the long term (1987-2016) mean OND rainfall in Zanzibar. Indeed, the results show that the presence of the MJO during OND and the enhanced positive IOD was among the causes for the observed wetness of the 2019 OND in Zanzibar and most parts of the country. Moreover, the dominant easterly, southeasterly and northw
基金This study was supported by the " National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences"G 1998040900 Part 1.
文摘The difference is examined in atmospheric circulation and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the trop-ics and subtropics between weak and strong convection over the tropical western Pacific warm pool (signified as WPWP). The WPWP is chosen as the region (110–160°E, 10–20°N), where the Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) shows a great year-to-year variance. A composite study was carried out to examine the differences in atmospheric circulation and SSTs between weak and strong convection over WPWP. First, NCEP/NCAR re-analysis data and satellite-observed OLR data are used to examine the differences. ERA data, in which the OLR data are calculated, are then used for re-examination. The composite results show that the differences are remarkably similar in these two sets of data. The difference in circulations between weak and strong convection over WPWP is significantly associated with westward extension of the North Pacific subtropical anticyclone and stronger westerlies at the northwestern edge of the subtropical anticyclone. It also corresponds with the significant easterly anomaly and the descent anomaly in situ, i.e., over the WPWP. The most prominent characteristics of the difference of SSTs between weak and strong convection over the WPWP are the significant positive SST anomalies in the Indian Ocean, the Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea. In WPWP, however, there are only weak negative SST anomalies. Thus, the anomaly of OLR over WPWP is weakly associated with the SST anomalies in situ, while closely associated with the SST anomalies west of WPWP. Key words Convection over the western Pacific warm pool - Northwest Pacific subtropical high - Sea surface temperatures This study was supported by the “ National Key Programme for Developing Basic Sciences” G1998040900 Part 1.
文摘Between the 1940s and the 1960s there was a significant lowering of the surface temperatures of the central North Pacific. This cool-down is discussed on the basis of analyses of a very large surface temperature data base, covering most of the North Pacific, which began in 1947 and continued for at least 30 years afterwards. A surface area more than 20 degrees of latitude by approximately 70 degrees of longitude, centered on 40°N, cooled down within about a ten year period by typically 0.5℃ and by as much as 1.0℃. Previously a permanent surface and near surface circulation was proposed in which a shallow very broad warm surface layer flows northeastward at mid-latitudes on the eastern side of the North Pacific while colder water returns southward to the east, west and underneath the warm surface current. It is suggested that variations in this hypothesized circulation, due to natural causes not yet completely understood, potentially provide a mechanism for producing a cooling down (or warming up) of a large region of the central North Pacific at mid-latitudes in a relatively short period of time (ten years or less).
文摘The study investigated the impacts of tropical cyclone (TC) Fantala (11<sup>th</sup> to 27<sup>th</sup> April, 2016) to the coastal areas of Tanzania, Zanzibar in particular. Daily reanalysis data consisting of wind speed, sea level pressure (SLP), sea surface temperatures (SSTs) anomaly, and relative humidity from the National Centres for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) were used to analyze the variation in strength of Fantala as it was approaching the Tanzania coastal line. In addition observed rainfall from Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) at Zanzibar office, Global Forecasting System (GFS) rainfall estimates and satellite images were used to visualize the impacts of tropical cyclone Fantala to Zanzibar. The results revealed that, TC Fantala was associated with deepening/decreasing in SLP (from 1012 - 1010 mb) around the north-western Madagascar and coastal Tanzania, whereas the mean SSTs was greater than 28<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C and an SSTs anomaly ranged from 0 to 2.3<span style="white-space:nowrap;">°</span>C. The vertical wind shear which ridged at Mozambican Channel and over north-eastern Madagascar was high enough (12 - 15 ms<sup>-1</sup>) to support the intensifying of Fantala. The thermodynamic and dynamic conditions of Fantala influenced heavy rainfall of greater than 170 mm over most stations in Zanzibar. Moreover, Fantala disrupted the temporal variability of 2016 March to May (MAM) seasonal rainfall. Besides, more than 420 people were homeless, at least 3330 houses were destroyed, and about 2 people died. As for mainland Tanzania Fantala resulted in a death of 12 people in Kilimanjaro and Arusha, more than 315 houses were washed away by flooding leading to 13,933 people being homeless. Conclusively the study calls for an extensive research work based on examining and forecasting the TCs rainfall impacts and their contribution during the two rainfall seasons of OND and MAM in Tanzania.
基金Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40276013)Icelandic and Danish Natural Science Research Councils
文摘Diatom data from core MD992271 on the North Icelandic shelf record a cooling trend through the last 3000 years. This is indicated by a general decrease in warm water species and an increase in cold water taxa. The relative abundance of these two diatom groups changed periodically, suggesting that the climate also fluctuated within this time period. The results of diatom-based transfer function calculation show that the summer sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) before 1400 cal. a BP were generally higher than the mean value for the last 3000 years and the summer SSTs fluctuated around the mean between 1400 and 700 cal. a BP, and dropped to the values below the mean after 700 cal. a BP. Four cooling events were distinguished, centered at around 2600, 1900, 1300 and 600 cal. a BP respectively. The results are not only consistent with the data from neighbouring cores HM107-03 and MD992275, but also comparable with those from the GISP2 ice core and from other marine sediment records in the North Atlantic. This suggests that changes in the summer SSTs reflect regional climate variations in the North Atlantic. On the North Icelandic shelf, the summer SST variation is a result of changes in the in-teraction between the cold and the warm currents in the area.
文摘The spatio-temporal analysis of the performance of the March to May</span><span style="font-family:""> (MAM) <span>2020 rainfall and its societal implications to Northern Coastal Tanzania</span> (NCT) including Zanzibar was investigated. The uniqueness of the October to December, 2019 (OND) rainfall and the extension of the January to February, 2020 rainfall in Zanzibar which coincided with MAM 2020 rainfall was among the issues which prolonged MAM 2020 rainfall in NCT and Zanzibar. The National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) in collaboration with National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)</span><span style="font-family:"">.</span><span style="font-family:""> Reanalysis 1 datasets of <i>u</i> (zonal)</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:"">and <i>v</i> (meridional)</span><span style="font-family:""> </span><span style="font-family:"">winds</span><span style="font-family:"">,</span><span style="font-family:""> sea surface temperatures anomalies, relative humidity, amount of precipitable water and ocean net flux were</span><span style="font-family:""><span style="background-image:initial;background-position:initial;background-size:initial;background-repeat:initial;background-attachment:initial;background-origin:initial;background-clip:initial;"> </span></span><span style="background-color:;"></span><span style="font-family:""><span style="background:yellow;"></span><span>analyzed. Other datasets include the Tanzania Meteorological Authority (TMA) observed rainfall</span> records</span><span style="font-family:"">,</span><span style="font-family:""> maximum and minimum temperature</span><span style="font-family:"">s</span><span style="font-family:"">. Moreover, <span>TMA and Intergovernmental Climate Prediction and Analysis Cente</span>r (ICPAC)</span><span style="font-family:"">.</span><span style="font-family:""> MAM 2020 rainfall and temperature forecast reports were interpreted. Gridded and observed datasets were calculated into monthly and seasonal averages. As for
