Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With th...Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effec-tive reproduction number reflecting the control effect. No-ticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.展开更多
基金supported by the Major State Research Project(Grant No.G2000077305)the National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)and Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) is a serious disease with many puzzling features. We present a simple, dynamic model to assess the epidemic potential of SARS and the effectiveness of control measures. With this model, we analysed the SARS epidemic data in Beijing. The data fitting gives the basic case reproduction number of 2.16 leading to the outbreak, and the variation of the effec-tive reproduction number reflecting the control effect. No-ticeably, our study shows that the response time and the strength of control measures have significant effects on the scale of the outbreak and the lasting time of the epidemic.
