The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tende...The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that： （1） Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km2 from 2000 to 2014. （2） For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution （weight） of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method. （3） In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years （2015-2042）, farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.展开更多
El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed accord...El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.展开更多
基金supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 4961038)Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan Province Education Department (No. 16ZB0402)+1 种基金Engineering and Technical College of Chengdu University of Technology Foundation (No. C122014014)the key research projects of Science and Technology Bureau of Leshan Town
文摘The Qilian mountain area was examined for using the Logistic-CA-Markov coupling model combined with GIS spatial analyst technology to research the transformation of LUCC, driving force system and simulate future tendency of variation. Results show that： （1） Woodland area decreased by 12.55%, while grassland, cultivated land, and settlement areas increased by 0.22%, 7.92%, and 0.03%, respectively, from 1986 to 2014. During the period of 1986 to 2000, forest degradation in the middle section of the mountain area decreased by 1,501.69 km2. Vegetation cover area improved, with a net increase of grassland area of 38.12 km2 from 2000 to 2014. （2） For constructing the system driving force, the best simulation scale was 210m×210m. Based on logistic regression analysis, the contribution （weight） of composite driving forces to land use and cover change was obtained, and the weight value was more objectively compared with AHP and MCE method. （3） In the natural scenarios, it is predicted that land use and cover distribution maps of Qilian mountain area in 2028 and 2042, and the Lee-Sallee index test was adopted. Over the next 27 years （2015-2042）, farmland, woodland, grassland, settlement areas show an increasing trend, especially settlements with an obvious change of 0.56%. The area of bare land will decrease by 0.89%. Without environmental degradation, tremendous structural change of LUCC will not occur, and typical characteristic of the vertical zone of the mountain would remain. Farmland and settlement areas will increase, but only in the vicinity of Qilian and Sunan counties.
基金Knowledge Innovation Project of Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute of CASNo.210100+3 种基金 Knowledge Innovation Project of CASNo.KZCX1-10-0603 KZCX2-301
文摘El Nino and La Nina are the events concerned internationally. The corresponding relationship between El Nino events, temperature, precipitation and runoff in the Qilian mountain area are analyzed according to the date from the weather and the hydrometric stations in the area, the results show that effects of El Nino events to temperature, precipitation and runoff are different in the different time and zones. When El Nino occurs, temperature rises, but precipitation and runoff decrease in the whole Qilian mountain area, especially in the east and middle parts of the area. Temperature rises, precipitation and runoff still decrease in the eastern Qilian mountain area in the next year El Nino occurring, but decrease extent is fewer. There are not obvious relationship between temperature, precipitation and runoff with El Nino events in the western Qilian mountain area.
