BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hosp...BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hospital mortality,intervention(endoscopic or surgical)and length of admission(≥7 d).METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021.We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves(AUROCs)of Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),pre-endoscopic Rockall score(PERS),albumin,international normalized ratio,altered mental status,systolic blood pressure,age older than 65(AIMS65)and age,blood tests and comorbidities(ABC),including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts.We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model,if addition of lactate increased the score performance.RESULTS All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group.AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group(AUROC=0.772;P<0.001),and ABC score(AUROC=0.775;P<0.001)in the non-variceal bleeding group.However,ABC score,at a cut-off value of 5.5,was the best predictor(AUROC=0.770,P=0.001)of inhospital mortality in both populations.PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment(AUC=0.604;P=0.046)in the variceal population,while GBS score,(AUROC=0.722;P=0.024),outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention.Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score,increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality(P<0.05)and by 12-fold if added to GBS score(P<0.003).No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.CONCLUSION ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population.PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention,respectively.Lactate can be used as an additional tool t展开更多
BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)is a common medical emergency and early assessment of its outcomes is vital for treatment decisions.AIM To develop a new scoring system to predict its prognosis.METHODS ...BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)is a common medical emergency and early assessment of its outcomes is vital for treatment decisions.AIM To develop a new scoring system to predict its prognosis.METHODS In this retrospective study,692 patients with UGIB were enrolled from two cen-ters and divided into a training(n=591)and a validation cohort(n=101).The clinical data were collected to develop new prognostic prediction models.The en-dpoint was compound outcome defined as(1)demand for emergency surgery or vascular intervention,(2)being transferred to the intensive care unit,or(3)death during hos-pitalization.The models’predictive ability was compared with previously esta-blished scores by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.RESULTS Totally 22.2%(131/591)patients in the training cohort and 22.8%(23/101)in the validation cohort presented poor outcomes.Based on the stepwise-forward Lo-gistic regression analysis,eight predictors were integrated to determine a new post-endoscopic prognostic scoring system(MH-STRALP);a nomogram was de-termined to present the model.Compared with the previous scores(GBS,Rock-all,ABC,AIMS65,and PNED score),MH-STRALP showed the best prognostic prediction ability with area under the ROC curves(AUROCs)of 0.899 and 0.826 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively.According to the calibration cur-ve,decision curve analysis,and internal cross-validation,the nomogram showed good calibration ability and net clinical benefit in both cohorts.After removing the endoscopic indicators,the pre-endoscopic model(pre-MH-STRALP score)was conducted.Similarly,the pre-MHSTRALP score showed better predictive value(AUROCs of 0.868 and 0.767 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively)than the other pre-endoscopic scores.CONCLUSION The MH-STRALP score and pre-MH-STRALP score are simple,convenient,and accurate tools for prognosis prediction of UGIB,and may be applied for early decision on its management strategies.展开更多
文摘BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal(GI)bleeding is a life-threatening condition with high mortality rates.AIM To compare the performance of pre-endoscopic risk scores in predicting the following primary outcomes:In-hospital mortality,intervention(endoscopic or surgical)and length of admission(≥7 d).METHODS We performed a retrospective analysis of 363 patients presenting with upper GI bleeding from December 2020 to January 2021.We calculated and compared the area under the receiver operating characteristics curves(AUROCs)of Glasgow-Blatchford score(GBS),pre-endoscopic Rockall score(PERS),albumin,international normalized ratio,altered mental status,systolic blood pressure,age older than 65(AIMS65)and age,blood tests and comorbidities(ABC),including their optimal cut-off in variceal and non-variceal upper GI bleeding cohorts.We subsequently analyzed through a logistic binary regression model,if addition of lactate increased the score performance.RESULTS All scores had discriminative ability in predicting in-hospital mortality irrespective of study group.AIMS65 score had the best performance in the variceal bleeding group(AUROC=0.772;P<0.001),and ABC score(AUROC=0.775;P<0.001)in the non-variceal bleeding group.However,ABC score,at a cut-off value of 5.5,was the best predictor(AUROC=0.770,P=0.001)of inhospital mortality in both populations.PERS score was a good predictor for endoscopic treatment(AUC=0.604;P=0.046)in the variceal population,while GBS score,(AUROC=0.722;P=0.024),outperformed the other scores in predicting surgical intervention.Addition of lactate to AIMS65 score,increases by 5-fold the probability of in-hospital mortality(P<0.05)and by 12-fold if added to GBS score(P<0.003).No score proved to be a good predictor for length of admission.CONCLUSION ABC score is the most accurate in predicting in-hospital mortality in both mixed and non-variceal bleeding population.PERS and GBS should be used to determine need for endoscopic and surgical intervention,respectively.Lactate can be used as an additional tool t
基金Supported by Key Disciplines Group Construction Project of Shanghai Pudong New Area Health Commission,No.PWZxq2022-06Medical discipline Construction Project of Pudong Health Committee of Shanghai,No.PWYgf2021-02+1 种基金Joint Tackling Project of Pudong Health Committee of Shanghai,No.PW2022D08the Medical Innovation Research Project of the Shanghai Science and Technology Commission,No.22Y11908400.
文摘BACKGROUND Upper gastrointestinal bleeding(UGIB)is a common medical emergency and early assessment of its outcomes is vital for treatment decisions.AIM To develop a new scoring system to predict its prognosis.METHODS In this retrospective study,692 patients with UGIB were enrolled from two cen-ters and divided into a training(n=591)and a validation cohort(n=101).The clinical data were collected to develop new prognostic prediction models.The en-dpoint was compound outcome defined as(1)demand for emergency surgery or vascular intervention,(2)being transferred to the intensive care unit,or(3)death during hos-pitalization.The models’predictive ability was compared with previously esta-blished scores by receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curves.RESULTS Totally 22.2%(131/591)patients in the training cohort and 22.8%(23/101)in the validation cohort presented poor outcomes.Based on the stepwise-forward Lo-gistic regression analysis,eight predictors were integrated to determine a new post-endoscopic prognostic scoring system(MH-STRALP);a nomogram was de-termined to present the model.Compared with the previous scores(GBS,Rock-all,ABC,AIMS65,and PNED score),MH-STRALP showed the best prognostic prediction ability with area under the ROC curves(AUROCs)of 0.899 and 0.826 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively.According to the calibration cur-ve,decision curve analysis,and internal cross-validation,the nomogram showed good calibration ability and net clinical benefit in both cohorts.After removing the endoscopic indicators,the pre-endoscopic model(pre-MH-STRALP score)was conducted.Similarly,the pre-MHSTRALP score showed better predictive value(AUROCs of 0.868 and 0.767 in the training and validation cohorts,respectively)than the other pre-endoscopic scores.CONCLUSION The MH-STRALP score and pre-MH-STRALP score are simple,convenient,and accurate tools for prognosis prediction of UGIB,and may be applied for early decision on its management strategies.
