Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One w...Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.展开更多
The paper focuses on measuring self-similarity using few techniques by an index called Hurst index which is a self-similarity parameter. It has been evident that Internet traffic exhibits self-similarity. Motivated by...The paper focuses on measuring self-similarity using few techniques by an index called Hurst index which is a self-similarity parameter. It has been evident that Internet traffic exhibits self-similarity. Motivated by this fact, real time web users at various centers considered here as traffic and it has been examined by various methods to test the self-similarity. The results from the experiments carried out verify that the traffic examined in the present study is self similar using a new method based on some descriptive measures;for example percentiles have been applied to compute Hurst parameter which gives intensity of the self-similarity. Numerical results and analysis we discussed and presented here play a significant role to improve the services at web centers in the view of quality of service (QOS).展开更多
The study assessed changes in rainfall variability and the frequency of extreme events (very wet and very dry) in the state of S?o Paulo, Brazil, for a 40-year period that divided into two sub-groups: 1973-1992 (P1) a...The study assessed changes in rainfall variability and the frequency of extreme events (very wet and very dry) in the state of S?o Paulo, Brazil, for a 40-year period that divided into two sub-groups: 1973-1992 (P1) and 1993-2012 (P2). Data of 79 rain gauge stations were selected to represent the different climatic and geomorphological domains of the state. The annual pattern was evaluated through the scale and the shape parameters of the gamma distribution and the 95th and the 5th percentiles thresholds, the latter also employed to evaluate the seasonal spatial patterns (rainy season, Oct.-Mar. and sub-humid to dry season, Apr.-Sep.). Results showed that the average precipitation was similar in P1 and P2, but S?o Paulo evolved to a pattern of increased irregularity in the rainfall distribution, with a rise of approximately 10% in the number of extremes between 1973 and 2012, especially in the very dry occurrences, and in the north and west of the state, which are the least rainy regions. Moreover, while 55% of the evaluated rain gauges recorded more extreme wet episodes in P2, 76% registered more dry extreme episodes in the same period. Some very dry or very wet events recorded after the 40-year period evaluated were discussed in terms of the associated weather patterns and their impacts on society and attested to the validity of the results found in the quantitative assessment. The qualitative analysis indicates that if the trends of more irregular distribution of rain and increase in extreme events persist, as pointed out by the gamma and percentile analyses, they would continue to bring serious effects on the natural and social systems in the state, which is the most populous and has the strongest and most diversified economy in Brazil.展开更多
The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecolog- ical and evolutional processes. The Sharpe-Schoo...The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecolog- ical and evolutional processes. The Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto （SSI） model succeeded in defining the temperature that can thermodynamically meet the condition that at a par- ticular temperature the probability of an active enzyme reaching its maximum activity is realized. Previously, an algorithm was developed by Ikemoto （Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments. Journal of Medical Entomology, 45, 963-969） to estimate model parameters, but that program was computationally very time consuming. Now, investi- gators can use the SSI model more easily because a full automatic computer program was designed by Shi et al. （A modified program for estimating the parameters of the SSI model. Environmental Entomology, 40, 462-469）. However, the statistical significance of the point estimate of the intrinsic optimum temperature for each ectotherm has not yet been determined. Here, we provided a new method for calculating the confidence interval of the estimated intrinsic optimum temperature by modifying the approximate bootstrap confidence intervals method. For this purpose, it was necessary to develop a new program for a faster estimation of the parameters in the SSI model, which we have also done.展开更多
In large sample studies where distributions may be skewed and not readily transformed to symmetry, it may be of greater interest to compare different distributions in terms of percentiles rather than means. For exampl...In large sample studies where distributions may be skewed and not readily transformed to symmetry, it may be of greater interest to compare different distributions in terms of percentiles rather than means. For example, it may be more informative to compare two or more populations with respect to their within population distributions by testing the hypothesis that their corresponding respective 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles are equal. As a generalization of the median test, the proposed test statistic is asymptotically distributed as Chi-square with degrees of freedom dependent upon the number of percentiles tested and constraints of the null hypothesis. Results from simulation studies are used to validate the nominal 0.05 significance level under the null hypothesis, and asymptotic power properties that are suitable for testing equality of percentile profiles against selected profile discrepancies for a variety of underlying distributions. A pragmatic example is provided to illustrate the comparison of the percentile profiles for four body mass index distributions.展开更多
Groundwater dependent ecosystems(GDEs)are vulnerable to groundwater regime changes.However,their protection is often hampered by challenges in their identification.Within is presented a remote sensing-based GDE potent...Groundwater dependent ecosystems(GDEs)are vulnerable to groundwater regime changes.However,their protection is often hampered by challenges in their identification.Within is presented a remote sensing-based GDE potential mapping approach based on the persistency of relevant vegetation parameters during prolonged dry periods as an indicator of potential‘consistency’of water supply(e.g.groundwater).The study uses a novel approach to characterising persistency for selected vegetation parameters based on a normalised difference measure and an adaptation of the coefficient of variation statistic.Aggregation of parameters was facilitated through the analytic hierarchy process providing a structured weighting approach to minimise parameter bias.The approach is demonstrated in the semi-arid Flinders Ranges of South Australia where new groundwater resources are being sought to support local domestic and industry needs.Variations in GDE potential were mapped to better target areas where exploration of groundwater should be avoided.Mapping results indicated a high-level of agreement of 77%with an independent springs dataset,along with an 87%agreement with areas coinciding with known phreatophyte species and depths to groundwater.The index-based mapping approach has potential applicability across landscapes,as it normalises for variations in vegetation cover,minimises technical overheads,and employs continental-wide remote sensing data-products.展开更多
To estimate percentiles of a response distribution, the transformed response rule of Wetherill and Robbins-Monro sequential design were proposed under Log-Logistic model. Based on responses data, a necessary and suffi...To estimate percentiles of a response distribution, the transformed response rule of Wetherill and Robbins-Monro sequential design were proposed under Log-Logistic model. Based on responses data, a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of maximum likelihood estimators and then the calculating formula were presented. After a simulation study, the proposed approach was applied to 65# detonator. Numerical results showed that estimators of percentiles from the proposed approach are robust to the parametric models lacking information on the original response distribution.展开更多
Impacts of returns on assets are not instantaneously felt, since there is lag period. In this paper we consider the problem of developing a model for the conditional QPDL （quantile polynomial distributed lag） and in...Impacts of returns on assets are not instantaneously felt, since there is lag period. In this paper we consider the problem of developing a model for the conditional QPDL （quantile polynomial distributed lag） and investigate the influences of the conditioning variables on the location, scale and shape parameters of the QPDL model. As an economic application, we consider the production of rubber and its price returns ofSri Lanka. From the analysis we observed that the QPDL model applications were better estimators than the PDL （Polynomial Distributed Lag） models.展开更多
Purpose:A new point of view in the study of impact is introduced.Design/methodology/approach:Using fundamental theorems in real analysis we study the convergence of well-known impact measures.Findings:We show that poi...Purpose:A new point of view in the study of impact is introduced.Design/methodology/approach:Using fundamental theorems in real analysis we study the convergence of well-known impact measures.Findings:We show that pointwise convergence is maintained by all well-known impact bundles(such as the h-,g-,and R-bundle)and that theμ-bundle even maintains uniform convergence.Based on these results,a classification of impact bundles is given.Research limitations:As for all impact studies,it is just impossible to study all measures in depth.Practical implications:It is proposed to include convergence properties in the study of impact measures.Originality/value:This article is the first to present a bundle classification based on convergence properties of impact bundles.展开更多
基金jointly sponsored by the National Basic Research Program of China "973" Program (Grant No. 2012CB956200)the Knowledge Innovation Project (Grant No. KZCX2-EW-202)the Strategic Priority Research Program (Grant No. XDA05090103) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences
文摘Two approaches of statistical downscaling were applied to indices of temperature extremes based on percentiles of daily maximum and minimum temperature observations at Beijing station in summer during 1960-2008. One was to downscale daily maximum and minimum temperatures by using EOF analysis and stepwise linear regression at first, then to calculate the indices of extremes; the other was to directly downseale the percentile-based indices by using seasonal large-scale temperature and geo-potential height records. The cross-validation results showed that the latter approach has a better performance than the former. Then, the latter approach was applied to 48 meteorological stations in northern China. The cross- validation results for all 48 stations showed close correlation between the percentile-based indices and the seasonal large-scale variables. Finally, future scenarios of indices of temperature extremes in northern China were projected by applying the statistical downsealing to Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 （HadCM3） simulations under the Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 （RCP 4.5） scenario of the Fifth Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. The results showed that the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperatures will increase by about 1.5℃, and the 10th of daily minimum temperatures will increase by about 2℃ during the period 2011- 35 relative to 1980-99.
文摘The paper focuses on measuring self-similarity using few techniques by an index called Hurst index which is a self-similarity parameter. It has been evident that Internet traffic exhibits self-similarity. Motivated by this fact, real time web users at various centers considered here as traffic and it has been examined by various methods to test the self-similarity. The results from the experiments carried out verify that the traffic examined in the present study is self similar using a new method based on some descriptive measures;for example percentiles have been applied to compute Hurst parameter which gives intensity of the self-similarity. Numerical results and analysis we discussed and presented here play a significant role to improve the services at web centers in the view of quality of service (QOS).
文摘The study assessed changes in rainfall variability and the frequency of extreme events (very wet and very dry) in the state of S?o Paulo, Brazil, for a 40-year period that divided into two sub-groups: 1973-1992 (P1) and 1993-2012 (P2). Data of 79 rain gauge stations were selected to represent the different climatic and geomorphological domains of the state. The annual pattern was evaluated through the scale and the shape parameters of the gamma distribution and the 95th and the 5th percentiles thresholds, the latter also employed to evaluate the seasonal spatial patterns (rainy season, Oct.-Mar. and sub-humid to dry season, Apr.-Sep.). Results showed that the average precipitation was similar in P1 and P2, but S?o Paulo evolved to a pattern of increased irregularity in the rainfall distribution, with a rise of approximately 10% in the number of extremes between 1973 and 2012, especially in the very dry occurrences, and in the north and west of the state, which are the least rainy regions. Moreover, while 55% of the evaluated rain gauges recorded more extreme wet episodes in P2, 76% registered more dry extreme episodes in the same period. Some very dry or very wet events recorded after the 40-year period evaluated were discussed in terms of the associated weather patterns and their impacts on society and attested to the validity of the results found in the quantitative assessment. The qualitative analysis indicates that if the trends of more irregular distribution of rain and increase in extreme events persist, as pointed out by the gamma and percentile analyses, they would continue to bring serious effects on the natural and social systems in the state, which is the most populous and has the strongest and most diversified economy in Brazil.
文摘The intrinsic optimum temperature for the development of ectotherms is one of the most important factors not only for their physiological processes but also for ecolog- ical and evolutional processes. The Sharpe-Schoolfield-Ikemoto （SSI） model succeeded in defining the temperature that can thermodynamically meet the condition that at a par- ticular temperature the probability of an active enzyme reaching its maximum activity is realized. Previously, an algorithm was developed by Ikemoto （Tropical malaria does not mean hot environments. Journal of Medical Entomology, 45, 963-969） to estimate model parameters, but that program was computationally very time consuming. Now, investi- gators can use the SSI model more easily because a full automatic computer program was designed by Shi et al. （A modified program for estimating the parameters of the SSI model. Environmental Entomology, 40, 462-469）. However, the statistical significance of the point estimate of the intrinsic optimum temperature for each ectotherm has not yet been determined. Here, we provided a new method for calculating the confidence interval of the estimated intrinsic optimum temperature by modifying the approximate bootstrap confidence intervals method. For this purpose, it was necessary to develop a new program for a faster estimation of the parameters in the SSI model, which we have also done.
文摘In large sample studies where distributions may be skewed and not readily transformed to symmetry, it may be of greater interest to compare different distributions in terms of percentiles rather than means. For example, it may be more informative to compare two or more populations with respect to their within population distributions by testing the hypothesis that their corresponding respective 10th, 50th, and 90th percentiles are equal. As a generalization of the median test, the proposed test statistic is asymptotically distributed as Chi-square with degrees of freedom dependent upon the number of percentiles tested and constraints of the null hypothesis. Results from simulation studies are used to validate the nominal 0.05 significance level under the null hypothesis, and asymptotic power properties that are suitable for testing equality of percentile profiles against selected profile discrepancies for a variety of underlying distributions. A pragmatic example is provided to illustrate the comparison of the percentile profiles for four body mass index distributions.
文摘Groundwater dependent ecosystems(GDEs)are vulnerable to groundwater regime changes.However,their protection is often hampered by challenges in their identification.Within is presented a remote sensing-based GDE potential mapping approach based on the persistency of relevant vegetation parameters during prolonged dry periods as an indicator of potential‘consistency’of water supply(e.g.groundwater).The study uses a novel approach to characterising persistency for selected vegetation parameters based on a normalised difference measure and an adaptation of the coefficient of variation statistic.Aggregation of parameters was facilitated through the analytic hierarchy process providing a structured weighting approach to minimise parameter bias.The approach is demonstrated in the semi-arid Flinders Ranges of South Australia where new groundwater resources are being sought to support local domestic and industry needs.Variations in GDE potential were mapped to better target areas where exploration of groundwater should be avoided.Mapping results indicated a high-level of agreement of 77%with an independent springs dataset,along with an 87%agreement with areas coinciding with known phreatophyte species and depths to groundwater.The index-based mapping approach has potential applicability across landscapes,as it normalises for variations in vegetation cover,minimises technical overheads,and employs continental-wide remote sensing data-products.
文摘To estimate percentiles of a response distribution, the transformed response rule of Wetherill and Robbins-Monro sequential design were proposed under Log-Logistic model. Based on responses data, a necessary and sufficient condition for the existence of maximum likelihood estimators and then the calculating formula were presented. After a simulation study, the proposed approach was applied to 65# detonator. Numerical results showed that estimators of percentiles from the proposed approach are robust to the parametric models lacking information on the original response distribution.
文摘Impacts of returns on assets are not instantaneously felt, since there is lag period. In this paper we consider the problem of developing a model for the conditional QPDL （quantile polynomial distributed lag） and investigate the influences of the conditioning variables on the location, scale and shape parameters of the QPDL model. As an economic application, we consider the production of rubber and its price returns ofSri Lanka. From the analysis we observed that the QPDL model applications were better estimators than the PDL （Polynomial Distributed Lag） models.
基金The author thanks Li Li(National Science Library,CAS)for drawing Figure 1.
文摘Purpose:A new point of view in the study of impact is introduced.Design/methodology/approach:Using fundamental theorems in real analysis we study the convergence of well-known impact measures.Findings:We show that pointwise convergence is maintained by all well-known impact bundles(such as the h-,g-,and R-bundle)and that theμ-bundle even maintains uniform convergence.Based on these results,a classification of impact bundles is given.Research limitations:As for all impact studies,it is just impossible to study all measures in depth.Practical implications:It is proposed to include convergence properties in the study of impact measures.Originality/value:This article is the first to present a bundle classification based on convergence properties of impact bundles.
